What was the “clear message”, and who was it sent by and to?
And if it was done “to send a clear message”, why the cover-up?
Consider this: the Russians shot down a KAL airplane, which included a US congressman amongst the passengers. The relatives were not allowed to bring home the bodies of the deceased, as was the practice for US personnel killed abroad in military accidents. No fuss was made about this because it was considered Russia had a right to shoot down the plane as it was illegally in its airspace, albeit by pilot error.
Then compare and contrast to the likely
Estonia scenario: Sweden was smuggling out Russian military and state secrets via the
Estonia passenger ferry in September 1994, and as confirmed in the Swedish Riksdag (parliament) in 2005. In most sovereign states, espionage and treason are considered a higher level of crime than murder, and even a
casus belli. When this was going on it is clear members of the crew and customs would have been aware of this and word must surely have got back to Russia*, especially with so many officials still loyal to the Auld Ancienne Regime. According to an article in the
STATESMAN, Russia had warned the UK and Sweden formally twice to cease stealing their state secrets.
If, as Hedrenius and Ovberg claim, the ferry on 28 Sept 1994 was loaded with Russian FSU military equipment - as it definitely had been on 14th and 20th September 1994, Russia or its elite ex-KGB agents [who enjoyed almost complete autonomy from its government] were certainly tipped off by someone or some body or other, then if Russia or its elite agents then took steps to prevent the USA-ordered smuggled cargo from reaching its destination in Stockholm, then it puts the Russians 'in the right' because it had (a) warned the UK and Sweden and (b) it had a sovereign right to protect its state secrets. Thus, Sweden would naturally be loathe to admit it was the cause of the disaster as it had wrecklessly used 556 of its own citizens, as well as 250 Estonians and 17 other nationalities making up almost 900 known mass deaths as collateral damage to ship out the smuggled material.
The same principle that put Russia 'in the right' to shoot down the KAL aeroplane is the one that theoretically puts them in the 'right' for efficiently and effectively stopping the latest round of equipment smuggling by Sweden/USA.
That is the clear message IMV.
*The Estonian Head of Defence, Simm was convicted in 1996 of high treason and imprisoned for ten years - he had been providing Russia with state secrets, such as EU security briefings and confidential internal state matters.