• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.
I have always held that my default position is that things happen because of 'cock up' rather than evil intent. So, if the submarine - if it was a submarine - that collided with the vessel was Swedish/British then it could well have been accidental. If Russian, obviously hostile.
You have recently stated that it was obviously an act of sabotage which means that it was hostile, an obvious act of sabotage cannot be an accidental collision from a friendly submarine.

You can't think it was an obvious act of sabotage whilst simultaneously think it might have been caused by an accident caused by a collision with a friendly submarine escorting the Estonia.

So I'll ask you again, now that you have made it clear that you think the sinking of the Estonia was an obvious act of sabotage, it means that you no longer think it was probably an accident caused by a collision with a friendly submarine.

So I conclude that you no longer hold that opinion. If I'm wrong then explain how you can simultaneously think that Estonia was sunk by an obvious act of sabotage and that it was also probably sank by an accidental collision with a friendly submarine.
 
So, if the submarine - if it was a submarine - that collided with the vessel was Swedish/British then it could well have been accidental. If Russian, obviously hostile.
How could a Russian submarine colliding with the Estonia be an obvious act of sabotage?

Are you suggesting that the Russians might have sank the Estonia by deliberately ramming it with a submarine? Who signed up for that suicide mission?
 
Last edited:
Yes, showing pictures of controlled explosions is very spectacular but most times a mine on a ship's hull or a ship running into one would not be as ferocious as it has not met explosive with explosive as in a controlled blast.

You knows as well as I do explosives come in all quantities. They can be big or small.

I can't fathom what on earth this is supposed to mean. Controlled explosions are very spectacular? Meeting explosives with explosives? What?

Sea mines contain large quantities of high explosives. They're intended to do major damage to warships designed to survive damage. There was no mine. There was no evidence of explosions. There was no evidence of explosives aside from one cryptic claim that an object might be an unexploded charge of some unidentified type.
 
Why would an accidental sinking of the Estonia by a leftover WWII unexploded mine be "hugely political and embarrassing" but an accidental sinking of the Estonia by a failing bow visor not be such that it's worth the Swedish government's while going to the byzantine lengths to cover up the former story and railroad an investigation into coming up with the latter cover story?

Remember that I asked you about "an unexploded leftover WWII mine", i.e. an accident. You're answering an entirely different scenario involving sabotage, which I didn't ask about.


It must have been sabotage, because otherwise the government wouldn’t have covered it up, and without a cover-up there would be no reason to think it was sabotage.
 
It was a perfectly reasonable supposition at the time by Johanson of Estline. Given the sheer speed of sinking.

It was not likely. It was a stretch. He was deflecting blame.

But the relevant point is that it would not have been an act of sabotage, and you now claim to believe sabotage was very obvious to you, so I hope we can assume you don't think Estonia struck a mine.
 
How could a Russian submarine colliding with the Estonia be an obvious act of sabotage?

Are you suggesting that the Russians might have sank the Estonia by deliberately ramming it with a submarine? Who signed up for that suicide mission?


It would probably be no more dangerous than the other plan of retrieving a potentially unstable WWII mine and hitting the Estonia with that.
 
What was the “clear message”, and who was it sent by and to?

And if it was done “to send a clear message”, why the cover-up?

Consider this: the Russians shot down a KAL airplane, which included a US congressman amongst the passengers. The relatives were not allowed to bring home the bodies of the deceased, as was the practice for US personnel killed abroad in military accidents. No fuss was made about this because it was considered Russia had a right to shoot down the plane as it was illegally in its airspace, albeit by pilot error.

Then compare and contrast to the likely Estonia scenario: Sweden was smuggling out Russian military and state secrets via the Estonia passenger ferry in September 1994, and as confirmed in the Swedish Riksdag (parliament) in 2005. In most sovereign states, espionage and treason are considered a higher level of crime than murder, and even a casus belli. When this was going on it is clear members of the crew and customs would have been aware of this and word must surely have got back to Russia*, especially with so many officials still loyal to the Auld Ancienne Regime. According to an article in the STATESMAN, Russia had warned the UK and Sweden formally twice to cease stealing their state secrets.

If, as Hedrenius and Ovberg claim, the ferry on 28 Sept 1994 was loaded with Russian FSU military equipment - as it definitely had been on 14th and 20th September 1994, Russia or its elite ex-KGB agents [who enjoyed almost complete autonomy from its government] were certainly tipped off by someone or some body or other, then if Russia or its elite agents then took steps to prevent the USA-ordered smuggled cargo from reaching its destination in Stockholm, then it puts the Russians 'in the right' because it had (a) warned the UK and Sweden and (b) it had a sovereign right to protect its state secrets. Thus, Sweden would naturally be loathe to admit it was the cause of the disaster as it had wrecklessly used 556 of its own citizens, as well as 250 Estonians and 17 other nationalities making up almost 900 known mass deaths as collateral damage to ship out the smuggled material.

The same principle that put Russia 'in the right' to shoot down the KAL aeroplane is the one that theoretically puts them in the 'right' for efficiently and effectively stopping the latest round of equipment smuggling by Sweden/USA.

That is the clear message IMV.




*The Estonian Head of Defence, Simm was convicted in 1996 of high treason and imprisoned for ten years - he had been providing Russia with state secrets, such as EU security briefings and confidential internal state matters.
 
It very likely and almost certainly (cf eyewitnesses Hedrenius and Ovberg) carried military cargo and thus would have ipso facto needed a military escort. Wouldn't want bootleggers getting their hands on such sensitive material!

Surely the story is that bootleggers had got their hands on Soviet military equipment and were selling it to whoever paid. If you're smuggling stuff, surely it makes more sense to do it discreetly than brazenly and openly with an armed escort. But either way, why not just follow the ship on radar?
 
It is true, is it not? People won't accept something as being true until it is endorsed by the Murdoch/Barclay Brothers/Fox News/AP/Reuters press. This is hardly controversial. If the cap fits, wear it. If not, then why take it personally?

We're all sheep except for you.
 
Surely the story is that bootleggers had got their hands on Soviet military equipment and were selling it to whoever paid. If you're smuggling stuff, surely it makes more sense to do it discreetly than brazenly and openly with an armed escort. But either way, why not just follow the ship on radar?

What good is that? If someone attacks your protected vessel carrying ultra sensitive cargo, how will tracking by radar ensure its safety?
 
If, as Hedrenius and Ovberg claim, the ferry on 28 Sept 1994 was loaded with Russian FSU military equipment - as it definitely had been on 14th and 20th September 1994, Russia or its elite ex-KGB agents [who enjoyed almost complete autonomy from its government] were certainly tipped off by someone or some body or other, then if Russia or its elite agents then took steps to prevent the USA-ordered smuggled cargo from reaching its destination in Stockholm, then it puts the Russians 'in the right' because it had (a) warned the UK and Sweden …


Sort of like a Mankad? Within the rules but against the spirit of the game?

That is the clear message IMV.


But what is the point of trying to cover up a clear message?
 
Last edited:
The crew managed to nip into warm clothing and survivor suits sharpishly so why wouldn't they have ensured their NMT's weren't likewise safe and waterproofed. After all, they managed to find their way to life rafts tout suite despite their 'poor training'.
Maybe. Maybe not. All of this is supposition on your part.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 
I have always held that my default position is that things happen because of 'cock up' rather than evil intent.

So it was very obvious accidental sabotage.
So, if the submarine - if it was a submarine - that collided with the vessel was Swedish/British then it could well have been accidental. If Russian, obviously hostile.
It seems Western submarines can accidentally collide with ships but Russian submarines cannot.

We don't know what nationality object caused the hole in the starboard.
The sea bed in international waters doesn't have any particular nationality. Nor does gravity.
 
Vixen said:
So, if the submarine - if it was a submarine - that collided with the vessel was Swedish/British then it could well have been accidental. If Russian, obviously hostile.
Another point to consider Vixen, earlier in this thread you offered the scenario that the Estonia might have been sank by a collision with a Russian submarine that was being sold to inexperienced third world buyers.

In that scenario, the act of sinking by a Russian submarine, was not "obviously hostile", it was accidental.

So given that you now think the sinking of the Estonia was an obvious act of sabotage, have you changed your opinion that is might have been sunk by an accidental collision with a submarine being sold to inexperienced third world buyers?
 
What good is that? If someone attacks your protected vessel carrying ultra sensitive cargo, how will tracking by radar ensure its safety?

What type of attack do you imagine their defending against and with what? If the cargo you're speculating about was genuinely "ultra sensitive" why put it on a civilian passenger ferry at all?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom