LondonJohn
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- May 12, 2010
- Messages
- 21,162
I'm willing to bet I know more about this than you do, <snips ludicrous appeals to one's own alleged qualifications, not least because the evidence of one's actual knowledge/understanding within this thread rides a coach and horses through all of these alleged qualifications>
I see. Forgive me if I view your offer of a bet here with a not-inconsiderable amount of litotes.
The null hypothesis in the Estonia case ought to have been, 'We strongly suspect the bow visor falling off and seawater flooding the car deck, as in the Herald of Free Enterprise , so to test this hypothesis, we'll assume that it was NOT the bow visor falling off that was the prime cause of the accident. That is, we will investigate whether the massive hole in the starboard caused by what looks like an enormous force or the loud explosion type noises heard by 48% of the vanishingly small number of survivors around about the stroke of Swedish midnight, together with the reported blackout of radio and VHF signals, might have contributed. Only once we have eliminated these can we reject our null hypothesis that it was not the bow visor falling off because of a few strong waves.
No. As I said, you do not understand what a null hypothesis is. Your claim that the null hypothesis in this case "ought to have been" the bow visor breaking & falling off, ultimately leading to the vehicle deck flooding and causing the ship to sink.....
.... is precisely as ignorant and incorrect as someone else attempting to claim that the null hypothesis in the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers "ought to have been" two Jet-A-laden aircraft flying into the towers, causing extensive structural damage which, when combined with over an hour of high-temperature fires on steel floor joists which had had their fire-retardant coating knocked off in the initial impact, caused the structures to fail at the points of entry and resulted in the towers collapsing.
In neither case does the scenario being described qualify as the null hypothesis.
Perhaps re-read my example about the tossing of a coin, to gain a better understanding of what a null hypothesis actually is, and what it is not?