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The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

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I'm willing to bet I know more about this than you do, <snips ludicrous appeals to one's own alleged qualifications, not least because the evidence of one's actual knowledge/understanding within this thread rides a coach and horses through all of these alleged qualifications>


I see. Forgive me if I view your offer of a bet here with a not-inconsiderable amount of litotes.


The null hypothesis in the Estonia case ought to have been, 'We strongly suspect the bow visor falling off and seawater flooding the car deck, as in the Herald of Free Enterprise , so to test this hypothesis, we'll assume that it was NOT the bow visor falling off that was the prime cause of the accident. That is, we will investigate whether the massive hole in the starboard caused by what looks like an enormous force or the loud explosion type noises heard by 48% of the vanishingly small number of survivors around about the stroke of Swedish midnight, together with the reported blackout of radio and VHF signals, might have contributed. Only once we have eliminated these can we reject our null hypothesis that it was not the bow visor falling off because of a few strong waves.


No. As I said, you do not understand what a null hypothesis is. Your claim that the null hypothesis in this case "ought to have been" the bow visor breaking & falling off, ultimately leading to the vehicle deck flooding and causing the ship to sink.....

.... is precisely as ignorant and incorrect as someone else attempting to claim that the null hypothesis in the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers "ought to have been" two Jet-A-laden aircraft flying into the towers, causing extensive structural damage which, when combined with over an hour of high-temperature fires on steel floor joists which had had their fire-retardant coating knocked off in the initial impact, caused the structures to fail at the points of entry and resulted in the towers collapsing.

In neither case does the scenario being described qualify as the null hypothesis.

Perhaps re-read my example about the tossing of a coin, to gain a better understanding of what a null hypothesis actually is, and what it is not?
 
Ad yet, track rod end ball joints and other components break quite often. How can that be if there is a valid MOT certificate for a car?
An MOT test confirms that a car is roadworthy when the test is taken. It is only tested once a year.
A car can be roadworthy when you start a journey but something can break while you are driving, that's why breakdown services exist.

Being fourteen years old has everything to do with it. Components wear in use. You even just admitted the ramp and visor had developed faults. It can be seaworthy and carrying defects. Just like a car can pass an MOT test and break down the same day through a failed component that wasn't obvious in the test.


Exactly.

And in passing, Vixen still appears not to understand how/why the shipyard that designed and built the Estonia (Meyer Werft) had - and continues to have - a strong vested interest in "proving" that whatever caused the ship to sink...... had nothing to do with its design or manufacture.
 
So now it appears you believe that a persistent number of ignoramuses secretly controls the PTB (since only the PTB have the....power.... to move this thread into it's present subforum)?

Wow, if this is the case, now we really do have a conspiracy going on! Sound the church bells!!!!


BONG!!!!
 
I would think that someone with any significant training in Biology and Chemistry would know that DNA is not a protein. Remember?

How many years of physics?

I don't know where Vixen studied, but in the UK 'entry level' qualifications to a degree course were (are?) known as 'A' levels. These are taken around the age of 18 and 3 A levels is a typical requirement for a B.Sc course. I took A level biology, physics and chemistry before my B.Sc in biological sciences after 7 years study in each of those 3 subjects. The whole subject of DNA was covered thoroughly in the biology classes.
 
Exactly no one in this thread has stated that some aspects of the JAIC report cannot be wrong, or incomplete. You cannot quote anyone who has.

Exactly no one in this thread has claimed that the decision to reopen the investigation must be a conspiracy theory. You cannot quote anyone who has.

Exactly no one in this thread has even posted an objection to the reopening of the investigation. You cannot quote anyone who has.

You have fashioned a veritable army of strawmen in this thread. Reminds me of the broomsticks in the Sorcerer's Apprentice. Destroy one and two pop up in its place.

Any and all aspects of a Conspiracy in regards to the sinking have been raised and posted in this thread by exactly one poster. Can you figure out who that one poster might be?

I certainly have no objection to a second investigation, should there be valid or plausible reasons for suspecting the first may be imperfect. However...

Should someone come along later, say a hero of one of the posters on this thread, and demand a third because 'Reasons!", the reply should be "OK. You pay for it. A minimum of $xM, payable in advance." Or, failing that, something rude that may or may not rhyme with duck cough.

Is it clear yet if the party that placed the bombs to blow the bow door off its hinges is the same party that sent the submarine to collide with the ferry?

Or were these two entirely separate plots that just coincidentally were timed to occur late at night in the middle of a storm?

Belt and braces, dear boy. Belt and braces. ;)
 
No, congratulations to those who believe the JAIC can't be wrong and therefore the decision to reopen the investigation must be a conspiracy theory, even though it is three sovereign nations who made this decision.

Straw man. No one is claiming the JAIC "can't be wrong." Your thread landed in Conspiracy Theories because it advances any or all of several conspiracy theories for how Estonia sank and how allegedly various parties conspired to cover up the "real" cause. That three sovereign nations have agreed to allow more study of the accident does not mean they espouse any of the wacky, inconsistent theories you've put forward. You cannot seem to separate the justifiable and skilled actions of others from your ignorant handwaving.
 
I'm willing to bet I know more about this than you do...

I'm willing to bet that you don't.

...having done a couple of Institute of Statisticians diplomas and being a Bachelor of Science with Honours*, which required entry level Biology + another science (being Chemistry in my case, plus Economics thrown in) plus extensive probability theory and forecasting in my postgraduate business masters.

You still don't understand the scientific method, at a basic level.

*This entailed a dissertation plus fifteen self-designed laboratory reports, plus a Statistics paper in the finals.

How many papers have you published in the relevant scientific journals? How many in journals that cover forensic engineering?

The null hypothesis in the Estonia case ought to have been, 'We strongly suspect the bow visor falling off and seawater flooding the car deck...

No, that cannot be a null hypothesis. Fail.

Hypothetico-deductivism is a useful model of inquiry only in a limited way in forensic engineering, largely for the reasons Kuhn noted. I'm sure you vaguely recall your long-ago lectures in which toy examples were presented, and through which you engaged in your own toy examples, complete with probably-correct statistical models. And I'm sure that has led you to believe in a certain prototype of inquiry that does indeed find a home in the purer, more experimental sciences. Forensic engineers find that consilience is a much more productive and accurate model of inquiry. Happenstance evidence is scant and rarely conclusive. It is also littered with evidence of conflating, but not yet realized, causes that have nothing to do with the final outcome. There is rarely a defensible statistical model that applies to the overall hypothesized chain of events, although often one that helps understand each of the many points of consilience that contribute to the final theory.
 
How many years of physics?

Depends on when you asked. The first time, she said she had struggled to pass her O-levels, which I understand were taken around age 16. The second time, she said she had "five years" of formal physics education, which would place her on par with a college graduate with a degree in physics.

But those contradictory claims aside, Vixen has not been able to demonstrate even a basic understanding of elementary dynamics in this thread, despite several comical attempts. That's really what it comes down to: can one hold one's own in a discussion in which physics concepts come to the fore.
 
Keep in mind you have to take care when reading Vixen's posts, and note that "having done a couple of Institute of Statisticians diplomas…" does not make the claim of having completed, earned, or been awarded such diplomas.

ETA: and now we have Vixen's admission that "having done" those diplomas means exactly nothing. Another meaningless claim.

Her claim to have studied biology, chemistry, and economics are unremarkable. At the (American) universities I've attended and taught at, those are basic requirements for all graduates, regardless of major.

As an engineering undergraduate I was required to take economics, as well as a life science and a physical science, each with a laboratory section involving student-designed experiments and lab reports. These were basic university requirements, common to all students who were to be awarded baccalaureate degrees, even in such fields as trombone performance. One could certainly take elementary physics as one's physical science, but as an engineering student I knew I was to be subjected to extensive training in that area, so I opted for astronomy. A number of courses qualified as one's life-science requirement, but I had been warned off Biology 101 -- by its faculty, no less. Instead I took osteology; my professor was actually also our state's medical examiner (akin to a coroner, for the benefit of our U.K. readers, but an appointed, not elected, position required to have appropriate scientific and medical credentials). Engineers also must learn statistics, including the noggin-baking field of statistical mechanics. (The author of one of the popular texts on this subject notes that its progenitors died by suicide.). So I left my first university knowing far more about how to operate Zeiss planetarium instruments and how to assemble human skeletons than most other recently-minted engineers.

It wasn't until my graduate studies that the formalisms of scientific methodology were taught. Yes, we exercised hypothetico-deductivism in astronomy. Yes, we exercised it in osteology. And yes, rudimentary statistical models were applied, as Kuhn advised us. But it wasn't until my PhD oral examinations that I really understood scientific methodology as it was meant to be employed by actual scientists doing actual new work. I would say someone who merely endured the entry-level courses taught in the undergraduate curriculum is probably not qualified to comment on methods of inquiry employed in the real world. I did poorly in economics, so if the discussion turns to that then I expect Vixen to know far more about it than I. I would expect that my entry-level study of it, poorly acquired and poorly recalled, would not stand me in very good stead.

Ultimately, academic qualifications considered, one must simply be able to demonstrate proficiency in a field in order to be accepted as competent in it. For years the head of my mechanical engineering department was an individual who had no license to practice engineering and no ME diploma. But he designed and built race car engines from scratch, and won with them at the local speedway. This is conclusive evidence that he had mastered the principles of engineering that I needed. It doesn't matter how much one wants to play up entry-level academic successes; if one can't correctly formulate a null hypothesis then one cannot expect to be accepted as competent in methods of inquiry.
 
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I'm willing to bet I know more about this than you do, having done a couple of Institute of Statisticians diplomas and being a Bachelor of Science with Honours*, which required entry level Biology + another science (being Chemistry in my case, plus Economics thrown in) plus extensive probability theory and forecasting in my postgraduate business masters.

*This entailed a dissertation plus fifteen self-designed laboratory reports, plus
a Statistics paper in the finals.


And yet in a Shroud thread, after informing us of your extensive training in statistics you confidently stated

PizzaHutt You would not get a normal distribution on a string of results on carbon testing. A normal distribution relies on a mean where 50% of a population falls within ±1 sd of the mean within the Gaussaian equation.

link http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10755544#post10755544

Now, an undergrad in a statistics intro course might make this mistake, but someone who had substantial statistics training and had used it as part of a masters thesis would know the correct figure is 66%; this is fundamental knowledge.

In the context of the physics howlers you've made in this thread, can you begin to see why we doubt your bona fides?
 
And yet in a Shroud thread, after informing us of your extensive training in statistics you confidently stated



link http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10755544#post10755544

Now, an undergrad in a statistics intro course might make this mistake, but someone who had substantial statistics training and had used it as part of a masters thesis would know the correct figure is 66%; this is fundamental knowledge.

In the context of the physics howlers you've made in this thread, can you begin to see why we doubt your bona fides?

Minor point, but it is actually 68.3%
 
Keep in mind you have to take care when reading Vixen's posts, and note that "having done a couple of Institute of Statisticians diplomas…" does not make the claim of having completed, earned, or been awarded such diplomas.

ETA: and now we have Vixen's admission that "having done" those diplomas means exactly nothing. Another meaningless claim.

Whoops, soz, that should read, 'Levels', not diplomas. Mea culpa.
 
Look, let's frame it in the following terms, to see if it makes the situation clearer for you:

Imagine if in time it transpired that there were some nagging inconsistencies and areas of concern in the official 9/11 Commission Final Report, and as a result the inquiry would be reopened with a view to an amended/appended report as the outcome. And while that's unlikely to happen, it's not inconceivable. If it were to happen, there'd be a reasonable discussion/debate to be had about what might have prompted the reopening, and what new/amended conclusions might ultimately be reached. Perhaps (just for example) there might now be more credible/reliable evidence available about the role of the Saudi Government in the matter, or additional/changed information about the parts played by the emergency services on-site or the air traffic control and military communities wrt the monitoring & identifying of the hijacked aircraft.

But what you're doing in this thread is the equivalent of a 9/11 conspiracy theorist taking the news of the reopening as a firm cue to speculate that this time, it's very possible that the commission would conclude that the Twin Towers were indeed brought down by thermite detonations (with the charges having been meticulously placed within the towers by agencies tied to the Government), or that the Jewish community knew in advance about the attacks, and pre-warned all Jews against going to lower Manhattan that day.

Is it now perhaps possible for you to see, via the above comparator, what's going on within this thread?

It is not comparable to the 9/11 twin towers as all of the theorists as to that accident are not officials, survivors, architects, accident investigators and heads of state who were directly involved in compiling the incident report.

9/11 comprises individuals wondering why the second tower imploded the way it did (I was one such person with a passing interest) and the Saudi link, not to mention speculation as to the one on the way to the Pentagon was shot down.

This news item is very different. It is the equivalent of a head of state quashing a conviction and issuing a pardon or declaring a conviction unsafe. When a convicted criminal is granted a judicial review of his or her case that indicates a reasonable prospect of success, or the review would never had been granted int he first place. For example, suppose Jeremy Bamber succeeds in getting his conviction reviewed. That will only happen if there is a near certain chance the judiciary accept he was wrongfully convicted, for a strong reason, not just on a public petition or a whim.

Likewise few here seem to understand that a review of the Estonia after 26 years of a firm and adamant attitude that the 'case is closed' is a current affairs news item, just as Jeremy Bamber being granted a review would be.
 
So now it appears you believe that a persistent number of ignoramuses secretly controls the PTB (since only the PTB have the....power.... to move this thread into it's present subforum)?

Wow, if this is the case, now we really do have a conspiracy going on! Sound the church bells!!!!

You know how it works: people pressing the little triangle on the left.
 
I don't know where Vixen studied, but in the UK 'entry level' qualifications to a degree course were (are?) known as 'A' levels. These are taken around the age of 18 and 3 A levels is a typical requirement for a B.Sc course. I took A level biology, physics and chemistry before my B.Sc in biological sciences after 7 years study in each of those 3 subjects. The whole subject of DNA was covered thoroughly in the biology classes.

What whoanellie refers to is a post wherein I carelessly in colloquial form referred to DNA being available from organic matter and referring to this matter as protein matter. Since then he has been claiming at every possible opportunity that I have a belief DNA is protein when obviously it is comprised of several structures.

It is rather similar to picking people up on spelling or grammar or inadvertently referring to a goal post as the bar.
 
Straw man. No one is claiming the JAIC "can't be wrong." Your thread landed in Conspiracy Theories because it advances any or all of several conspiracy theories for how Estonia sank and how allegedly various parties conspired to cover up the "real" cause. That three sovereign nations have agreed to allow more study of the accident does not mean they espouse any of the wacky, inconsistent theories you've put forward. You cannot seem to separate the justifiable and skilled actions of others from your ignorant handwaving.

As has been pointed out before, the so-called 'wacky inconsistent theories' you refer to are those put forward by a former chief public prosecutor of Estonia (who has insider knowledge), the PM of Estonia at the time, the chief Finnish Coast Guard at the time who wrote a report to the JAIC about the signal interference, the relatives of the deceased who haven't had a satisfactory answer and the passenger survivors who were there and dispute the way the JAIC presented their witness statements, if at all.

So not conspiracy theorists, these are the movers and shakers. You just don't get it.
 
From age what to age what? Did it involve calculus?

From the start of the First Form to the end of the Fifth Form. Can't remember about the calculus in Physics but we certainly had to do it for Maths.

Once you have your foot in the door to a good career, merit is all that matters and where you were ranked in class no longer means anything at all. I am not sure why you keep demanding I need to be a physicist or an engineer to discuss the Estonia.
 
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