The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Reformed Offlian]

Bligh was a very good sailor and ran his ship well.

I'll defer to you on that. *looks for a better example*

 

[Kid Eager]

So where were the NATO search and rescue bunch? Even if it took them an hour or more to get there, why didn't they? Does that mean they, too, were ill-prepared despite this being the second year running for this extension exercise.

Non-sequitur.

 

[Kid Eager]

Once the Treaty was sealed, it was never going to be repealed. However, under Swedish law - similar to that of most western countries - when compelling new evidence comes to light which has a reasonable prospect of success of overturning the conclusions that led to the Treaty - the JAIC verdict that 'no-one was to blame but there was a design fault in the bow visor bolts', in this case. The Treaty would not have been amended to allow for this new investigation if it were merely a 'conspiracy theory'.

Think about how vanishingly rare it is for a final verdict to get overturned years later except when new evidence/information comes to light that there is no choice but to send it back because the new evidence will almost certainly quash the original 'final' finding. It almost never happens. The three sovereign states involved have adamantly refused to review their determinations for twenty-six years and now they have no choice but to. They certainly would not do that if it was frivolous or arguable. Certainly not for a 'conspiracy theory'.

That's a very verbose way of saying you're speculating and the results haven't been effectively expunged.

 

[Andy_Ross]

So where were the NATO search and rescue bunch? Even if it took them an hour or more to get there, why didn't they? Does that mean they, too, were ill-prepared despite this being the second year running for this extension exercise.

The exercise was over 400 miles away.
We went through this at length just last week.
You haven't told us how they would get there or what they could do.
You haven't even told us if any helicopters were involved in the exercise.

 

[Andy_Ross]

As we are back to crew training again, maybe I should repost this

Royal Navy damage repair training.


Firefighting training
Every sailor is a firefighter.



Merchant crews are not trained to this level.
They are trained to secure hatches, isolate compartments and valves etc.
They should be drilled in evacuating the ship though and the officers in command should make sure procedures are adequate and equipment is serviceable.

 

[Axxman300]

As we are back to crew training again, maybe I should repost this

Royal Navy damage repair training.


Firefighting training
Every sailor is a firefighter.



Merchant crews are not trained to this level.
They are trained to secure hatches, isolate compartments and valves etc.
They should be drilled in evacuating the ship though and the officers in command should make sure procedures are adequate and equipment is serviceable.

And it should be noted that this was 1994 when Estonia and the former Eastern Block was transforming from being Communist to free-market where many industries found themselves in trouble because they couldn't compete with their self-motivated western counterparts. Personal initiative runs counter to collective thought, and it sounds like the Estonia's crew members failed to act because nobody was around to tell them what to do. The few cases where the crew did anything productive seem to be cases where a superior was present.

 

[Axxman300]

Just posting links to the current investigation with highlights:

14, July, 2021:

https://news.err.ee/1608277890/ms-e...estigation-not-yielding-any-big-surprises-yet

Head of the Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau Rene Arikas said that: "We haven't seen any great surprises so far," of the dive, which started last Friday, and is a preliminary to further work to start next spring.

"Instead, in the coming few days we will get more precise information to talk about in greater length," Arikas added, quoted by BNS.

Looks like this is a preliminary survey, which is smart.

14, July, 2021 - This covers the ramp being down. The German "A submarine did it" guy chimes in.

https://news.err.ee/1608278460/gallery-ms-estonia-wreck-dive-reveals-vehicle-deck-ramp-fully-open

Margus Kurm, who headed up the last Estonian-led investigation 2005-2009, says that the ramp had been a closed position in 1994 when it sank, according to the International Commission on the Investigation of Shipwrecks (JAIC) final report, and following a 2000 documentary by German journalist Jutta Rabe.

This meant, he said, that it is hard to believe that the ramp has since then fallen down and is now lying against the wreck, he told evening paper Õhtuleht (link in Estonian), adding that his initial reaction was that the ramp had subsequently been removed.

Kurm has previously stated that the likely cause of the disaster was collision with a submarine.

Damage resulting from contact with the seabed is clear, Arikas said; surveys have revealed that while the bed consists of a soft sandy surface, this masks harder and angular bedrock below.

Arikas said that: "If the ship collided with the seabed when she sank, the most severe damage is in the stern section, where, comparing that with plans, it can be seen that lighter structures located there are more vulnerable to damage. This damage has been carried over to the central part of the vessel, and in all probability the stack section has suffered a good amount of damage."

16, July, 2021 - Big shock, survey shows significant damage:

https://news.err.ee/1608280338/preliminary-survey-reveals-significant-damage-to-ferry-estonia-wreck

The damage, Arikas said, has been caused by an irregular external body. What is believed to be a granite outcrop lies opposite the damaged area, and observation of the damage suggests that it matches the geometry of the outcrop.

18, July, 2021 - One Expert claims dive equipment used by survey team not up to the task:

https://news.err.ee/1608282066/expert-estonia-wreck-dive-equipment-not-up-to-the-task

"The quality of the existing images is very poor and does not provide answers to experts too," he told the daily, quoted by BNS.

Rahumägi also said that the work has turned out to cost several times more than expected, while it is of more use to speculative inquirers and enthusiasts.

A fully-documented survey, using adequate equipment suited for the task and followed by an analysis and science-based evaluation, to be evaluated by experts, is required instead, he said.

Failure to do so could have undesirable consequences for the investigation and for Estonia's reputation internationally, he said. "The leveraging and production of speculation in a sensitive investigation could turn the final outcome of the investigation into a farce, which would be a reputational disaster for Estonia."

19, July, 2021 - I guess some people are flipping out about the ramp being dislodged from the wreck...after 27 years at the bottom of the sea...

https://news.err.ee/1608283431/expert-human-intervention-not-likely-cause-of-estonia-bow-ramp-shift

A recent 10-day sanctioned expedition to survey the wreck, which lies in about 100 meters of water south of the Turku archipelago, was the first of its kind for several years. The survey revealed the vehicle ramp in the "open" or "down" position, resting against the hull.

The official explanation of the 1994 disaster is that a sheared-off bow visor door allowed water to enter, during heavy seas, rapidly compromising the ferry's buoyancy integrity.

"Further more, the seabed is not such a quiet grave, in general. In the spot where the Estonia is currently lying, model calculations show that water speeds of up to one meter per second are possible, about once every ten years. Such speeds can shake a ship lying on relatively uneven ground. We already know that the ship 's position has changed over the years," Soomere added.

The preliminary survey is done. We get the results this fall.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

Just posting links to the current investigation with highlights:

14, July, 2021:

https://news.err.ee/1608277890/ms-e...estigation-not-yielding-any-big-surprises-yet



Looks like this is a preliminary survey, which is smart.

14, July, 2021 - This covers the ramp being down. The German "A submarine did it" guy chimes in.

https://news.err.ee/1608278460/gallery-ms-estonia-wreck-dive-reveals-vehicle-deck-ramp-fully-open




16, July, 2021 - Big shock, survey shows significant damage:

https://news.err.ee/1608280338/preliminary-survey-reveals-significant-damage-to-ferry-estonia-wreck





18, July, 2021 - One Expert claims dive equipment used by survey team not up to the task:

https://news.err.ee/1608282066/expert-estonia-wreck-dive-equipment-not-up-to-the-task



19, July, 2021 - I guess some people are flipping out about the ramp being dislodged from the wreck...after 27 years at the bottom of the sea...

https://news.err.ee/1608283431/expert-human-intervention-not-likely-cause-of-estonia-bow-ramp-shift



The preliminary survey is done. We get the results this fall.

Sounds like some people are already trying to poison the well against the eventuality that this new investigation will largely uphold the general narrative of the JAIC report, and not lend any support to popular conspiracy notions.

 

[Vixen]

As we are back to crew training again, maybe I should repost this

Royal Navy damage repair training.


Firefighting training
Every sailor is a firefighter.



Merchant crews are not trained to this level.
They are trained to secure hatches, isolate compartments and valves etc.
They should be drilled in evacuating the ship though and the officers in command should make sure procedures are adequate and equipment is serviceable.

So explain how the crew of Estonia could have evacuated 850 people, most asleep in their cabins over five or six decks, within a critical ten-minute escape slot, bearing in mind that once the angle is 40° the floor and wall becomes a V-shape and having to contort your body to get through a narrow doorway, never mind having to use stair rails as a ladder needing upper body strength to hoist oneself up at the top of the landing.

I will get into my listening pose.

 

[Vixen]

And it should be noted that this was 1994 when Estonia and the former Eastern Block was transforming from being Communist to free-market where many industries found themselves in trouble because they couldn't compete with their self-motivated western counterparts. Personal initiative runs counter to collective thought, and it sounds like the Estonia's crew members failed to act because nobody was around to tell them what to do. The few cases where the crew did anything productive seem to be cases where a superior was present.

The system under Russian trained Captain Andresson was authoritarian. Crew had to get his permission first before they are allowed to do anything. Compare and contrast to the UK Sandhurst Academy leadership skills which encourages leaders to delegate according to priority and urgency task/action. The authoritarian model means crew are loathe to take any initiative of their own and likewise, prone to avoiding having to keep asking for permission to do things for fear of being slapped down as an upstart or undermining the captain.

By all accounts, Andresson was hated and resented by many because of his authoritarian attitude.

So, it seems, on the Estonia the ship's engineering crew worked hard to right the problem before daring to tell the captain, fearing they would be blamed, probably. By the time the alarm was raised it was already too late IMV.

 

[Vixen]

Just posting links to the current investigation with highlights:

14, July, 2021:

https://news.err.ee/1608277890/ms-e...estigation-not-yielding-any-big-surprises-yet



Looks like this is a preliminary survey, which is smart.

14, July, 2021 - This covers the ramp being down. The German "A submarine did it" guy chimes in.

https://news.err.ee/1608278460/gallery-ms-estonia-wreck-dive-reveals-vehicle-deck-ramp-fully-open




16, July, 2021 - Big shock, survey shows significant damage:

https://news.err.ee/1608280338/preliminary-survey-reveals-significant-damage-to-ferry-estonia-wreck





18, July, 2021 - One Expert claims dive equipment used by survey team not up to the task:

https://news.err.ee/1608282066/expert-estonia-wreck-dive-equipment-not-up-to-the-task



19, July, 2021 - I guess some people are flipping out about the ramp being dislodged from the wreck...after 27 years at the bottom of the sea...

https://news.err.ee/1608283431/expert-human-intervention-not-likely-cause-of-estonia-bow-ramp-shift



The preliminary survey is done. We get the results this fall.

Any theory as to who removed the car ramp railings, now seen lying on the seabed?

 

[Andy_Ross]

So explain how the crew of Estonia could have evacuated 850 people, most asleep in their cabins over five or six decks, within a critical ten-minute escape slot, bearing in mind that once the angle is 40° the floor and wall becomes a V-shape and having to contort your body to get through a narrow doorway, never mind having to use stair rails as a ladder needing upper body strength to hoist oneself up at the top of the landing.

I will get into my listening pose.

They should have started assembling the passengers as soon as they knew something was wrong, not when they knew the ship was sinking.
They left it too late, they didn't treat the early indications with enough seriousness.
They didn't turn the ship away from the sea or slow the engines.
They did nothing until it was too late.

As soon as they heard sounds and water was seen coming in the officer of the watch should have investigated with the chief engineer, that is also when the order to close watertight openings should have been given.
Then they should have sent a Pan-pan message to alert the coastguard and rescue services they were having problems. It would have put them on standby. position fix and proper mayday should have been sent in good time when they committed to abandoning ship.

There are procedures laid down for this kind of thing.

 

[Vixen]

Sounds like some people are already trying to poison the well against the eventuality that this new investigation will largely uphold the general narrative of the JAIC report, and not lend any support to popular conspiracy notions.

I think Axxman omitted to mention Arikas' quote that the damage to the starboard side must have been caused by an enormous impact. So, whilst his noncommittal, strictly neutral descriptive narrative at the press conference describes the damage that matches the geology of the nearby region and the deformations formed by shifting, he ascribes the starboard hole as something as yet unaccounted for.

 

[Vixen]

They should have started assembling the passengers as soon as they knew something was wrong, not when they knew the ship was sinking.
They left it too late, they didn't treat the early indications with enough seriousness.
They didn't turn the ship away from the sea or slow the engines.
They did nothing until it was too late.

Imagine a scenario were a wicked person leaves a bomb at the side of a ship and it goes off. The passengers and crew now have just ten minutes to escape. They don't know it was a bomb, they just felt the impact and heard the sound.

Truth is, as you yourself said, once they know the ship is doomed then they will don their own survivor suits and just get the hell out, perhaps throwing a few life vests towards passengers on their way to the life rafts.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Very droll. However, the point being made was that when there is sabotage or a terrorist attack there are near-zero alerts and to claim the high mortality rate was due to poor staff training is shifting the blame and avoiding facing the truth.

Normally at London tube stations, there are well-drilled set procedures for evacuating passengers. Who hasn't been locked out of Oxford Circus or evacuated from Euston? When there is an emergency/danger to life, for example the fire at King's Cross station some years ago, these safety measures are sadly limited and rarely is there even a chance for operating an emergency drill. Hence to blame the crew of Estonia or even to rely on them to give an accurate cause of the accident is to over-rate their abilities, albeit some of their acts will be heroic in nature.

There are procedures laid down for ships taking on water and the crew hearing strange noises from the hull. They never followed them, there was plenty of time to alert passengers and get them assembled in case an evacuation was needed. The officer of the watch and the engineer should have checked any reported leaks, watertight openings should have been closed straight away.
The ship's bows should have been turned away from the sea and speed reduced. Pan-pan should have been sent to alert coastguards they were having a problems and a proper position fix made ready for the Mayday message.

It's all basic stuff that every bridge crew should know. Every crew should know what parts of the passenger accommodation they were responsible for alerting and evacuating.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The system under Russian trained Captain Andresson was authoritarian. Crew had to get his permission first before they are allowed to do anything. Compare and contrast to the UK Sandhurst Academy leadership skills which encourages leaders to delegate according to priority and urgency task/action. The authoritarian model means crew are loathe to take any initiative of their own and likewise, prone to avoiding having to keep asking for permission to do things for fear of being slapped down as an upstart or undermining the captain.

By all accounts, Andresson was hated and resented by many because of his authoritarian attitude.

So, it seems, on the Estonia the ship's engineering crew worked hard to right the problem before daring to tell the captain, fearing they would be blamed, probably. By the time the alarm was raised it was already too late IMV.

Now all of a sudden the captain was 'hated'? If he was such an authoritarian why weren't his crew trained?

I think you ar emaking this up.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Imagine a scenario were a wicked person leaves a bomb at the side of a ship and it goes off. The passengers and crew now have just ten minutes to escape. They don't know it was a bomb, they just felt the impact and heard the sound.

Truth is, as you yourself said, once they know the ship is doomed then they will don their own survivor suits and just get the hell out, perhaps throwing a few life vests towards passengers on their way to the life rafts.

They didn't have just ten minutes from the first signs of a problem.
There was no bomb.

A well trained crew would put on their survival suits, it's the first thing they should do. A well trained crew would have been alerted and know what their jobs were supposed to be.
All the evidence is they weren't well trained and the bridge crew were negligent and incompetent.

Read the Nottingham report.

All watertight openings were immediately closed and within five minutes of the impact a preliminary report on the damage was made by the engineering officer and the crew were already working to stabilise the ship and stop the flooding.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

I think Axxman omitted to mention Arikas' quote that the damage to the starboard side must have been caused by an enormous impact. So, whilst his noncommittal, strictly neutral descriptive narrative at the press conference describes the damage that matches the geology of the nearby region and the deformations formed by shifting, he ascribes the starboard hole as something as yet unaccounted for.

You chide him for omitting a quote. I notice you also omitted it. What quote, exactly, are you talking about. Please actually quote it and don't just describe it. Because everything Arikas says in the linked article suggests that the impact was likely caused by a granite outcropping on the seafloor near where Estonia rests.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

So explain how the crew of Estonia could have evacuated 850 people, most asleep in their cabins over five or six decks, within a critical ten-minute escape slot...

I think I can see some wisps of straw stuffing sticking out of your question hinting that if you can't save everyone you shouldn't bother trying.

If they had reacted to the initial reports of something going wrong at the bow door more effectively than just looking at a video monitor, they might have saved the ship. Even if your fantasy sabotage had happened 15 minutes later they would at least have already been alert to danger.

 

[Vixen]

You chide him for omitting a quote. I notice you also omitted it. What quote, exactly, are you talking about. Please actually quote it and don't just describe it. Because everything Arikas says in the linked article suggests that the impact was likely caused by a granite outcropping on the seafloor near where Estonia rests.

Here you go:

Surveys of the stern revealed that the stern ramps were closed. A deformation of 22 meters in length and four meters in height was registered in the middle part of the vessel on the starboard side. The plating of the ship has outward deformations as well as in some inward ones and the side fender has been forced inside the vessel.

"Thus, the force that caused this damage had to be enormous," Arikas said, adding that the exact extent of the damage is not known as it could also reach below the hull.

The area of the vessel that has sustained major damages is located next to hard rocks and the deformation matches the geometry thereof, he noted.

Baltic Times

Note also signal interference whilst they were scanning.

A signal that interfered with the sonar was a concern, Arikas said. 3D sonar visibility was 150 meters on the first day of the survey, after which an hour-long interference occurred. Later, the interference was constant, reducing sonar visibility to just 20 meters and preventing the survey crew from measuring the curve of the wreck.

As everybody knew well in advance Arikas' team would be there, this could have been deliberate.