The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Kid Eager]

and a head on collision, right?

Yes, that too...

 

[Kid Eager]

The method of determining the Gross and Net Tonnages is prescribed by formula as follows:-

Gross Tonnage (GT) = K1V

where, V = total volume of all enclosed spaces in cubic metres
K1 = 0.2 + 0.02 log10 V

Net Tonnage (NT) = K2Vc(4d/3D)2 + K3(N1+N2/10)

where, Vc = total volume of cargo spaces in cubic metres
K2 = 0.2 + 0.02 log10 Vc
K3 = 1.25 (GT + 10,000)/10,000
D = moulded depth amidships in metres
d = moulded draught amidships in metres (Summer Load Line draught)
N1 = number of passengers in cabins with not more than 8 berths
N2 = number of other passengers
N1 + N2 = total number of passengers the ship is permitted to carry as indicated in the ship's passenger certificate; when N1 + N2 is less than 13, N1 and N2 shall be taken as zero
GT= gross tonnage of the ship as determined above

The factor (4d/3D)2 shall not be taken as greater than unity
The term K2Vc(4d/3D)2 shall not be taken as less than 0.25 GT
NT shall not be taken as less than 0.30 GT

The 'Gross Tonnage' and 'Net Tonnage' figures as determined from the above formulae are to be those quoted on the ship's International Tonnage Certificate

Simple.

I'm getting all sorts of flashbacks to when I did Naval Architecture. Haven't had to think about that for quite a while.

 

[Axxman300]

Maybe the captain escaped on the submarine.

I'm holding out for a sea monster...

As believable as a submarine.

 

[Vixen]

Clear, but unsatisfactory.

You were asked for evidence that you were "aware of it before," and you were presented with evidence consistent with your not being "aware of it" before. "Because I said so" is not the evidence you were asked to produce.



I'm simply holding you to an ordinary and reasonable standard of proof. If you decide you don't want to provide evidence for your claims, then people will continue not to take you seriously.

What do you mean evidence? The documentary has been out since last year and widely discussed. That's how I picked up the comments about Prof Amdahl's calculations. You don't think I calculated it myself do you?

 

[Andy_Ross]

What do you mean evidence? The documentary has been out since last year and widely discussed. That's how I picked up the comments about Prof Amdahl's calculations. You don't think I calculated it myself do you?

If you present the calculations you need support them.

 

[Vixen]

Abuse? You should probably report that then.

Didn't need to. Some guy managed to report himself by launching a string of invective at me, claiming he was 'taking one for the boys' (speaking for everybody). As I had never had any interaction with this individual it was all rather peculiar.

 

[Vixen]

I've seen several reports claiming that the Estonia was listing prior to the event due to poor loading, only some of which say this was corrected by moving the ballast. Does anyone know if this is fact or conjecture, and if there was an uncorrected list whether it was to port of starboard?

If I recall correctly the JAIC determined the Estonia set off at a list of 0.5 and instead of the usual gap between vehicles, that had been reduced quite significantly, so one can glean that the last cars on the car deck would have been quite jam-packed by the car ramp. To me, this means if the car ramp fell open, then those cars at the back, at least, should have plunged into the sea, but no vehicles were found on the seabed nearby.

 

[Vixen]

The Edwardians who built the Titanic weren't bad, either.

Standing on the shoulders of the great Victorian engineers before them. For example, Isambard Brunel, possibly one of the greatest.


What did the Edwardians ever do for us?

 

[Andy_Ross]

If I recall correctly the JAIC determined the Estonia set off at a list of 0.5 and instead of the usual gap between vehicles, that had been reduced quite significantly, so one can glean that the last cars on the car deck would have been quite jam-packed by the car ramp. To me, this means if the car ramp fell open, then those cars at the back, at least, should have plunged into the sea, but no vehicles were found on the seabed nearby.

If the ship sank by the stern and the water was pushing towards the stern of the car deck, why should cars have 'plunged' forwards up the sloping deck?

When the list progressed they would have moved to the low side of the deck, not forwards.

 

[Vixen]

She's trying to sneak the "nine missing crew members" meme back into the discussion.

I would really like to understand how these nine crew came to be listed as survivors, even turning up on a printout, and Captain Piht on an Interpol Arrest Warrant dated 7 October 1994. Then there is the weird adjustment to the number of survivors cruise liner M/S Viking Mariella picked up. How can such a mix up have happened? How would note takers on the Mariella, a different shipping line even know who the crew members were to list them.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Standing on the shoulders of the great Victorian engineers before them. For example, Isambard Brunel, possibly one of the greatest.


What did the Edwardians ever do for us?

Brunel was OK.

Don't mention his 'Atmospheric Railway' though.

 

[Vixen]

Maybe the captain escaped on the submarine.

Pure conjecture now, but maybe the life boat they were 'rescued' on was in the process of escaping before the ship sank...?

That's if we speculate they were actually 'rescued' as 'survivors' and then 'disappeared' to the USA.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Pure conjecture now, but maybe the life boat they were 'rescued' on was in the process of escaping before the ship sank...?

That's if we speculate they were actually 'rescued' as 'survivors' and then 'disappeared' to the USA.

Why?

 

[Vixen]

As presented here? All of it.

Nobody knows when the hole in the hull was formed.

Three countries can do what they want,

Trust me, "Sounded like" is not the same as "It was". Those bolts failing would have sounded like an explosion - because technically there is a sudden release of energy as the steel sheers. The hood struck the bulbous bow when it fell off, hence a scraping noise. Trucks and cars were tossed around in the car deck, also a source for something sounding like explosions, and certainly loud bangs.

Professor Amdahl doesn't explain why the hole is right along the seam of the hull plates, or why it resembles a stress fracture, and not an impact.

This list, in the light of the physical evidence as we have it right now, is meaningless.

Of course they would say it 'sounded like an explosion' not having actually seen the source of the noise.

The bow visor hitting the bulbous bow would account for the dent on its nose. However, at 55 tonnes it would have immediately sunk, not rattled around bothering the ship from all sides.


Here is what the Agreement states and is enforceable by law. In other words to amend it, meant compelling 'new evidence' had to be presented as Treaties, Acts' and Statutes are set in stone until overturned by an act of parliament or the senate.

So to call the new discovery a 'conspiracy theory' and that that the JAIC report is sound is as leaky as a punctured bucket and doesn't hold water.

49/1995
Document versions
• Regulation
• Agreement, etc.
•
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE REPUBLIC OF FINLAND, THE REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA AND THE KINGDOM OF SWEDEN ON M / S ESTONIA
THE REPUBLIC OF FINLAND, THE REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA AND THE KINGDOM OF SWEDEN, hereinafter referred to as "the Parties",
Recalling the accident of 28 September 1994 in which M / S Estonia sank in the Baltic Sea on its way from Tallinn to Stockholm,
Desiring to protect M / S Estonia as the last resting place for the victims of the accident from all disturbing activities,
urge the public and all other States to pay due respect to the location of M / S Estonia now and in the future,
HAVE AGREED AS FOLLOWS:
Article 1
The wreck of M / S Estonia and the surrounding area, as defined in Article 2, shall be considered as the last resting place of the victims of the accident and, as such, shall be given due respect.
Article 2
For the purposes of this Agreement, the area constituting the last resting position shall be bounded by straight lines from point 1 through points 2, 3 and 4 back to point 1:
Point No. 1 (upper left) 59 ° 23,500 'N, 21 ° 40,000' E
Point No 2 (upper right) 59 ° 23,500 'N, 21 ° 42,000' E
Point No. 3 (lower right) 59 ° 22,500 'N, 21 ° 42,000' E
Point No. 4 (lower left) 59 ° 22,500 'N, 21 ° 40,000' E;
all positions are defined by the geographical coordinates of the 1984 World Geodetic System (WGS 84).
Article 3
The parties agree that M / S Estonia will not be raised.
Article 4
1. The Contracting Parties undertake to take national legislative measures to criminalize all acts of disturbance of the peace of the last resting place, in particular diving or other acts of lifting victims or property off the wreck or seabed.
2. The Parties undertake to ensure that the commission of an offense established in accordance with paragraph 1 of this article is punishable by a term of imprisonment.
3. Notwithstanding the above provisions, a Contracting Party may take measures to cover the wreck or to prevent pollution of the marine environment by the wreck.
Article 5
Each Party undertakes to provide the other Party with information on ongoing or ongoing activities criminalized in accordance with Article 4 involving a vessel flying the flag of that Party.
Article 6
This Agreement shall enter into force thirty days after the Parties have notified the other Parties in writing that their respective constitutional requirements for its entry into force have been complied with.
Done at Tallinn on 23 January 1995 in three originals, all in the English language.
In witness whereof the undersigned, being duly authorized thereto, have signed this Agreement.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

I would really like to understand how these nine crew came to be listed as survivors, even turning up on a printout,

Probably because they survived. Which crew members are you claiming didn't?

and Captain Piht on an Interpol Arrest Warrant dated 7 October 1994.

The wheels of justice turn slowly sometimes? Interpol Arrest Warrants can take a while to happen?

Then there is the weird adjustment to the number of survivors cruise liner M/S Viking Mariella picked up.

What adjustment, specifically, are you referring to? And why is it weird?

How can such a mix up have happened?

How do clerical errors happen? Seriously? And you're an accountant?!

 

[Vixen]

Why?

Firstly, the M/S Mariella reported X number of people rescued, and that included the nine Estonian crew in question. The commander of that ship received a medal for a drastically reduced number of survivors than the original report. Survivors to the deck of M/S Mariella were asked their name and date of birth as identification. One of the twins' names is written down as 'Anne', which was her nickname, known only to family and friends, and not likely to be known by someone simply looking at an official list of crew. The other bizarre thing, apart from Piht's wife being told by eye witnesses in Rostock that they had seen her husband, and viewers claiming to have seen him in a German TV news clip, and others being notified by the embassy their relative was a survivor, is the fact of a 'whistle blower' coming forward with receipts for two designated flights out of Arlanda Airport (Stockholm) supposedly showing two lots of passengers out, one to Maine in the USA and the other to Amsterdam. I have no idea of their authenticity.

 

[Andy_Ross]

You are surprised that there was some confusion on the deck of a ship in a storm rescuing survivors of a shipwreck?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Of course they would say it 'sounded like an explosion' not having actually seen the source of the noise.

The bow visor hitting the bulbous bow would account for the dent on its nose. However, at 55 tonnes it would have immediately sunk, not rattled around bothering the ship from all sides.


Here is what the Agreement states and is enforceable by law. In other words to amend it, meant compelling 'new evidence' had to be presented as Treaties, Acts' and Statutes are set in stone until overturned by an act of parliament of the senate.

So to call the new discovery a 'conspiracy theory' and that that the JAIC report is sound is as leaky as a punctured bucket and doesn't hold water.

Your speculation on submarines, bombs, spies and disappearing crew members is the conspiracy theory.

 

[Vixen]

If the ship sank by the stern and the water was pushing towards the stern of the car deck, why should cars have 'plunged' forwards up the sloping deck?

When the list progressed they would have moved to the low side of the deck, not forwards.

At the initial ingress it would have entered in via the front car ramp (where vehicles enter - they exit at the destination at the stern) the listing would have meant the sea water crashed in at a 30° - 40 ° angle to the car deck so surely some of those cars near the car ramp would have been lifted up by the sheer force and lifted out as the ship itself would have been lifted up as though on a wave. Thus, one would have expected those vehicles near the ramp to have been washed away with the tide.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Do people not fly from Sweden to the USA or Holland?
If you aren't sure of their authenticity why post them?
If they are real what do they show?