The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Vixen]

Per second? What? How about putting common knowledge down, patting it on it's head and picking up some physics?

We've heard it suggested that about 2,000 tons of water on the car deck might have destabilised the ship and caused its initial list. Nowhere is it suggested this mass of water was shipped in the course of one second. Want to try again?

Corr: 2,000 tonnes in total, seeping in at between 180 - 200 tonnes p/s.

 

[Axxman300]

Yeah I'm getting a bit lost too. There has been allegations of it being a Swedish sub, Russian sub, British sub. Rogue KGB agents, rogue crew members planting explosives.

Maybe they stole a Russian sub and didn't know how to drive it.

Maybe it was a private submarine.

 

[erwinl]

I've taken the leave to mark only the factual parts of this post, as I can see.
All the rest is either opinion, conjecture of even simply false.
Maybe some of the other people can verify this?

The sound level of the Baltic at 2m height waves (calm conditions*) is 78dB. The level at which your hearing will be damaged within a minute is 115dB. The threshold safe level - for example, in the workplace or DIY work - is 85dB over 24 hours.

Thus, you can see immediately that waves of a height between 6m - 8m as happened on the accident night would give a decibel level far higher than at calm levels. Survivors said they could not hear what other people were shouting on deck. Bear in mind, decibels is not a linear measure but an exponential one. In other words, for every 3 decibel increase, the intensity of sound doubles, as it is a measure of magnitude (rather like a telescope lens). Thus, water pouring into the car deck at 200 tonnes/per second all on one go into clanking metal would be deafening.

the last sentence above is true in and of itself, but has not been shown to have happened as described here.

The Herald of Free Enterprise capsized virtually straight away so if it was the case then it should have turned turtle within about five minutes.

*The waters of the Baltic are relatively shallow, between 300m to 30 metres deep, with the unlevel seabed giving rise to unexpected currents. Seas have higher waves than oceans in a storm for that reason (Pacific = 'calm').

Higher waves = louder noise.

 

[Vixen]

Now it was an RN submarine?

That would be one of the big nuclear powered boats as the RN don't have small diesel electrics

...that the public knows of.

 

[Vixen]

There is no way he could have reasonably believed that. He would have been knowingly (and possibly illegally) acting as a foreign agent to perpetuate a lie that did not, AFAICT, serve country he was supposed to be representing.

I'll ask again, what moral, patriotic reason could Lehtola possibly have had to lie at the behest of *Swedish* intelligence services?

Have a guess as to who Finland's neighbours are?


We have a saying, 'A Russian is a Russian even when cooked in butter'.

 

[Axxman300]

The sound level of the Baltic at 2m height waves (calm conditions*) is 78dB. The level at which your hearing will be damaged within a minute is 115dB. The threshold safe level - for example, in the workplace or DIY work - is 85dB over 24 hours.

Thus, you can see immediately that waves of a height between 6m - 8m as happened on the accident night would give a decibel level far higher than at calm levels. Survivors said they could not hear what other people were shouting on deck. Bear in mind, decibels is not a linear measure but an exponential one. In other words, for every 3 decibel increase, the intensity of sound doubles, as it is a measure of magnitude (rather like a telescope lens). Thus, water pouring into the car deck at 200 tonnes/per second all on one go into clanking metal would be deafening. The Herald of Free Enterprise capsized virtually straight away so if it was the case then it should have turned turtle within about five minutes.

*The waters of the Baltic are relatively shallow, between 300m to 30 metres deep, with the unlevel seabed giving rise to unexpected currents. Seas have higher waves than oceans in a storm for that reason (Pacific = 'calm').

Higher waves = louder noise.

You are working way too hard to paint yourself into a corner.

The Estonia's sister ship had been forced to repair the clamps on her bow cover because they had problems. After the sinking and investigation they found that the clamps were poorly designed, and incapable of taking the rough seas the ship encountered that night. The captain ignored the initial report of damage to the bow and water coming in, and then went to bed as scheduled due to shift change. Most of the crew drowned which should tell you how good they were at communication. The Estonia left port with an 8-degree list due to improper loading, and this made everything worse once out to sea where the was blowing in the direction of the list. The bow was not visible to the bridge crew due to the ship's design, and there was no warning light to alert them that the bow cover had come off. They never slowed down after the initial report of the bow cover coming loose which placed more stress on the damaged area causing it to completely fail.

Those are the facts.

You need to address them sans wild speculation about stolen Soviet hardware and non-existent submarines.

 

[Vixen]

Is it your claim that all of these people believe Estonia was sunk by accidental collision with an escorting submarine?

Certainly not. I can only ever speak for myself. I wouldn't condescend to speak for anyone else. But the consensus appears to point to a submarine collision, with the German 'experts' preferring explosives.

 

[Axxman300]

...that the public knows of.

Stop.

Maybe not in 1993, but by now Russia would have tried to sell it if it existed. By 1995 you couldn't get Russian military veterans to shut up about everything they had and or did.

 

[Vixen]

I'm sure a list of similarly-described people could be said to question the 9/11 Commission's report. I'll bet they're even some of the same people.

No idea why you think anybody should be impressed, though.

I wonder if any of those people believe that a lawyer who publically makes false statements and deliberately runs a bogus investigation to help a foreign government he is secretly working for could reasonably be described as having any integrity.

There are many things which discretion tells us are better kept secret, such as a sovereign's defence strategy and tactics. I am sure Lehtola was of this mindset.

 

[erwinl]

Certainly not. I can only ever speak for myself. I wouldn't condescend to speak for anyone else. But the consensus appears to point to a submarine collision, with the German 'experts' preferring explosives.

You still have not explained how a submarine can cause a hole above the water line.

 

[Vixen]

The initial investigation took a few years. Doesn't matter what some politician said, only what the evidence indicated. The families have been speaking out of both sides of their mouths claiming cover-up on while suing the French company which certified the Estonia as safe for operations.

The entire affair stinks. They could and should have made the effort to recover the bodies instead of covering part of the ship in cement. By the way, if there was radioactive cargo inside the cement won't block it entirely.

Right now there are two research ships at the Estonia site conducting a new inspection of the ship. We will have their updated findings next spring.

Exactly. However, the initial investigation did not take a few years. It took three years to issue their report, the conclusion of which had been predetermined from day one and made to fit.

It said the vessel was seaworthy but can't have been if the bow visor's locks and bolts were not fit for purpose.

It is a nordic tradition you bring home your dead to rest in your churchyard or memorial park. The USA brings home dead soldiers. A Norwegian specialist divers company offered to rescue the bodies for circa SEK250,000 (=€30K apx) within days of the accident in a not-for-profit exercise but were turned down flat by the Swedish government. The Finnish environment agency demanded that the wreck be removed from its environmentally protected area because of the threat of leaking fuel and oil. It even offered to send down divers to remove the fuel by means of pipes and tubes but the Swedes didn't want anyone diving down their except themselves, plus an outsourced company called Rockwater.

 

[Axxman300]

Certainly not. I can only ever speak for myself. I wouldn't condescend to speak for anyone else. But the consensus appears to point to a submarine collision, with the German 'experts' preferring explosives.

No, there is no consensus. At least not among people who know anything about submarines, the ocean, water, or what passed for quality former eastern-block labor.

The hole in the side looks a lot like a stress fracture. The ship lies on an uneven seabed, and they covered part of it with cement. Maybe they don't have aluminum cans in your neighborhood, but they'll have to work hard to make it into an impact scar.

 

[Vixen]

Why would it be 'escorting it'?

If it was escorting it why was it on the surface ramming it when a sub is designed to operate under water where it is faster and in no danger of ramming anything?

Accidental collision perhaps. The Baltic has hazardous underwater currents. A Russian submarine had to be rescued after getting stuck in some rocks in Swedish waters.

Who knows why, except that it could well have happened.

 

[Vixen]

If the ship was listing how long do you think the lashings would have held?

Isn't that the purpose of lashings?

 

[Axxman300]

Exactly. However, the initial investigation did not take a few years. It took three years to issue their report, the conclusion of which had been predetermined from day one and made to fit.

This is entirely speculation on your part.

 

[Vixen]

Is that an answer? they are appointed by the politicians.

You seemed to imply that the generals in Sweden are telling the the PM what to do.

The correct term is 'advising'.

 

[Axxman300]

Isn't that the purpose of lashings?

They work wonderfully under calm conditions, but they had already loaded the ship incorrectly, so they were probably dead meat before they left port.

 

[Vixen]

Has the German government suggested a Swedish/ Royal Navy/ Rogue Russian submarine rammed the ferry and sank it?

No, the Germans think it was an explosion, which would suggest someone put a bomb or dynamite in the hull, or the contents of an illicit cargo ignited causing an explosion. The Germans claim to have tested a plate and discovered explosive material and as ratified by three different independent laboratories, separately, including San Antonio in Texas.

 

[Vixen]

My dad was a Merchant marine officer for over 40 years. I don't think he wore his blues once while on watch. It was for cocktail parties or VIP visits.
He certainly wouldn't wear it in a storm.

Don't forget, this was a commercial passenger liner and the uniform probably for the benefit of the passengers, as with commercial airline pilots.

 

[Vixen]

The whole enterprise would have been "illegal". If it was a contaminant, exposing passengers to it seems a bit risky. If they came down sick they'd be examined.

Can you nail down exactly what your theory is please.

So I am glad you agree it would have been grossly irresponsible to place this type of stuff on a passenger ferry. Oh wait, fast forward to 2005 and we discover the Swedish government puts on official record that it actually did do this during September 1994.