The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Vixen]

Government officials are incompetent nincompoops all the time.

The Estonian State Prosecutor is making a conspiracy theory claim. Do you disagree?

I do disagree because three sovereign states have agreed to amend the Treaty and to allow a review. That makes it current affairs, not conspiracy theory.

 

[JayUtah]

You are the one who is claiming that the survivors' accounts are worthless...

I made no such claim. You cite their omission from some report as evidence that the report is biased. But you keep changing your story regarding what evidentiary value that testimony would have. When you say it is evidentiary, then it has to be evaluated for reliability the same way as any other eyewitness testimony. When you say it is plaintive, then it simply doesn't belong in an engineering report.

...and you keep trying to direct me to 'authorities' when I already know about the pitfalls of eyewitness accounts.

You claimed that witnesses to traumatic events recall them more clearly. This is contrary to the established science.

As I said, these survivors are not appearing in court.

Eyewitness testimony and the issues surrounding it are relevant to far more things than courtroom settings. You're the one obsessed with courtroom testimony.

They wanted to have their stories told, like Magnus of Ludvig.

That doesn't mean that a forensic engineering report is the place to tell it. Nothing prevents them from publishing their own stories.

If he says his parents were left standing frozen to the spot, how dare anyone come along and accuse him of a 'false memory'!

The reliability of eyewitness testimony is a matter of well studied science. Trying to trump that with emotional appeals just reveals your desperation.

 

[Vixen]

Insult noted.

Yes, we know you're citing a former prosecutor's endorsement of this conspiracy theory as evidence that it is more likely to be true. And contrary to your claims, we are engaging with the theory, and specifically from the standpoint of a prominent official having said it. The rebuttal is that it doesn't matter how fervently he believes it on the basis of crew interviews if the physical evidence doesn't allow for it. All you can manage to come up with to rehabilitate Kurm's endorsement is to speculate that he might have information that no one knows about.

Well, we will just have to see what Arikas expedition and 3-D modelling from their 15,000-25,000 images makes of it all.

 

[JayUtah]

Well, I am arguing it is germane because they dispute what is in it. The JAIC should at least be open to amendments and corrections. It was a passenger ship so the passengers' experience is also germane. Can't just take it for granted that the crew were the self-painted heroes they portray themselves as. Their testimony should have been rigorously cross-examined.

And you say this from your vast experience as a forensic engineer, having written many of these reports and sat on many of these commissions? What you would have done in the place of professionals is of little general interest.

 

[JayUtah]

I do disagree because three sovereign states have agreed to amend the Treaty and to allow a review. That makes it current affairs, not conspiracy theory.

Three sovereign states have not signed onto a conspiracy theory that involves a Swedish submarine ramming Estonia. I see no problem in evaluating subsequently discovered damage and attempting to determine what caused it. But the Swedish submarine story is laughably incredible.

 

[theprestige]

All he was saying was that he knows what a bow looks like when he sees one. He said he is well familiar with ships and has a good sense of direction. However, the layout of the Estonia was a nightmare for him Why would he lie about something as trivial as that?

What high value does his testimony bring to the inquiry, in your opinion?

 

[carlitos]

A 5,000-pound Swedish submarine.

 

[theprestige]

I do disagree because three sovereign states have agreed to amend the Treaty and to allow a review. That makes it current affairs, not conspiracy theory.

It can be both.

 

[JayUtah]

A 5,000-pound Swedish submarine.

Well, 5,000 metric tons. But yeah...

 

[Andy_Ross]

All he was saying was that he knows what a bow looks like when he sees one. He said he is well familiar with ships and has a good sense of direction. However, the layout of the Estonia was a nightmare for him Why would he lie about something as trivial as that?

Again, the visor does not extend all the way to the keel. It goes to just below the level of the car deck just above the waterline.
Below that the bow continues down to the keel. It is also 'bulbous', it extends forward of the stem below the water in a rounded 'bulb' as do most ships built in the last 40 years or so.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Can't just take it for granted that the crew were the self-painted heroes they portray themselves as. Their testimony should have been rigorously cross-examined.

How do you know it wasn't?

.

 

[theprestige]

Can't just take it for granted that the crew were the self-painted heroes they portray themselves as.

Sure you can. It depends what your inquiry is about. If you're looking at engineering questions about bow visors, car decks, and flooding, then the crew's alleged heroism is completely irrelevant, and you don't need to give their testimony much thought at all.

 

[Axxman300]

Is that the same 'skill' and 'technology' that had them chasing fish around Kanholmsfjärden in the Stockholm archipelago claiming it was a damaged Russian sub a few years ago?

(snigger)

It was a really loud, and possibly delicious fish.

 

[RolandRat]

He has travelled the world and he is quoted in the documentary by Graham Philips as saying he is knowledgeable about marine matters. How do you know he wasn't once in the Navy?

"Paul was a PhD student from Berkshire when he first arrived in Wales in the early 1980s.

Based in Abergele for two years, he helped a friend restore a property before moving to Frongoch, Ceredigion, from where he commuted to Aberystwyth University to study nitrogen flows in organic agricultural systems.

Later he moved to Machynlleth to volunteer at the Centre for Alternative Technology when it still retained a distinct hippy vibe.

He stayed there just nine months, but loved the area, so he set up as a garden designer, inspired by CAT’s inspired by courses in permaculture.

Operating as Dyfi Landscapes, he stayed in the area for five years, going on to reshape gardens in places like Pennal and Abercegir.

Wanting to learn more, he took a Masters degree in landscape design at Sheffield University. From there he won a Churchill Fellowship travel grant to study willow biomass overseas.

Which brought him to his fateful night on the Baltic Sea.

After the sinking, Paul spent many years travelling the world before returning to his native Berkshire to set up a landscape gardening business."

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/sole-brit-survivor-modern-titanic-19637415

 

[erwinl]

"Paul was a PhD student from Berkshire when he first arrived in Wales in the early 1980s.

Based in Abergele for two years, he helped a friend restore a property before moving to Frongoch, Ceredigion, from where he commuted to Aberystwyth University to study nitrogen flows in organic agricultural systems.

Later he moved to Machynlleth to volunteer at the Centre for Alternative Technology when it still retained a distinct hippy vibe.

He stayed there just nine months, but loved the area, so he set up as a garden designer, inspired by CAT’s inspired by courses in permaculture.

Operating as Dyfi Landscapes, he stayed in the area for five years, going on to reshape gardens in places like Pennal and Abercegir.

Wanting to learn more, he took a Masters degree in landscape design at Sheffield University. From there he won a Churchill Fellowship travel grant to study willow biomass overseas.

Which brought him to his fateful night on the Baltic Sea.

After the sinking, Paul spent many years travelling the world before returning to his native Berkshire to set up a landscape gardening business."

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/sole-brit-survivor-modern-titanic-19637415

See?!

Typical Navy career and thus he should be considered to be an expert on marine matters. Or at least knowledgable.


Or something......

 

[erwinl]

Look, posters are sauing it is a conspiracy theory that the vessel collided with a submarine. I am merely pointing out that hello, the Estonian State Prosecutor was making that claim not some nerd on ISF.

Yes and we are saying that statement is nonsense. At least as things are standing right now concerning evidence.

IF that statement would be true, that would have consequences we could check.
A Swedish submarine sunk during that same time, or returning to port heavily damaged with say the bow or the sail caved in. Paint from the submarine present on the hole in the Estonia.

Things like that should be noticable.
But they haven't been.

 

[RolandRat]

But you aren't just casually reporting it. You're trying to take your critics to task for allegedly being so afraid of this claim and unwilling to examine it or let it be examined by others. You clearly think his accusation proves some point. When your critics examine the claim and give you good reasons to disbelieve it, and opine why this former official may have made it, if not on the strength of the evidence for it, you completely ignore it.

This. I don't get why people post threads like this when they absolutely refuse to consider they are wrong. They don't want discussion, they want an echo chamber.

 

[RolandRat]

See?!

Typical Navy career and thus he should be considered to be an expert on marine matters. Or at least knowledgable.


Or something......

Perhaps I should be consulted, my experience is as relevant as this guys. I've been on boats, I know the pointy end normally goes forward.

 

[RolandRat]

Ah but when they go to a press conference they become 'loonie' conspiracy theorists because the great unwashed masses won't believe anything unless Rupert Murdoch gives it a stamp of approval.

Do I detect the faint cry of "sheeple!" becoming louder?

 

[erwinl]

Perhaps the one that weighs 5,000 tonnes? If you look at Evertsson's documentary Epsiode 5, 'The find that changes everything', and fast forward to Professor Jorgen Amdahl, towards the end of the programme, there flashes up a picture of a possible culprit submarine. You might be able to identify it from there, bearing in mind it is only a tentative suggestion. (Possibly simply a random stock photo to accompany the narrative rather than the one suggested by Amdahl.)

Finally got around to seeing this movie.

What the dear professor is looking at is the Norwegian Ula class submarine, a class of 6 submarines which was built in Germany. He actually does call it that and the name of the class (the wiki page) is visible onscreen.
Which you know as, you've seen this documentary, else you couldn't point me to it.
By the way. He first searches for the Kobben submarines (he says so, while typing in the search). Also a Norwegian class. He then finds these are too small and then goes on to the next larger class, the Ula class.

He never searches for Swedish submarines!

The plot is thickening!
The Swedish navy used one of the Norwegian submarines to sink the Estonia!
Well at least that explains the lack of damage in the Swedish submarines. Could of course also be that the Norwegians were the ones who sank the Estonia.

That or the dear professor is speaking nonsense.