The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

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Yes, someone else also saw them.

How was it corroborated they were actually military trucks? Why did the witnesses think they were military vehicles? Seems a bit odd they'd go to all the trouble of secretly smuggling military tech on a passenger ferry and then start loading/unloading in front of witnesses using obviously military vehicles.

Were there no security cameras where the ferry docked?
 
Have you considered your utterings might be a reflection on yourself rather than on the survivors and victims' families requesting a review of the investigation.

852 drowned or died of hypothermia and it is a big joke for some.

Rubbish. No-one is saying the accident is a joke. They are saying a conspiracy involving military vehicles and dozy submarines is asinine.
 
Rubbish. No-one is saying the accident is a joke. They are saying a conspiracy involving military vehicles and dozy submarines is asinine.

For the umtpy-ninth time. The fact of ex-Soviet defence secrets smuggling is a matter recorded at the Swedish Rikstag. So how is it 'asinine'?

The hole is also a recorded fact.

It is a fact that the investigation has been reopened by three sovereign nations and the numerous signatories to the Estonia Treaty and you still stubbornly believe it is a hoax of some sort? Maybe reevaluate what you have been conditioned to believe? If it was China or Russia, would you be more likely to believe it? Why would you disbelieve that Sweden would do such a thing when it has come clean and said it did do such a thing. In September, in 1994 and on the M/S Estonia.
 

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For the umtpy-ninth time. The fact of ex-Soviet defence secrets smuggling is a matter recorded at the Swedish Rikstag. So how is it 'asinine'?

The hole is also a recorded fact.

It is a fact that the investigation has been reopened by three sovereign nations and the numerous signatories to the Estonia Treaty and you still stubbornly believe it is a hoax of some sort? Maybe reevaluate what you have been conditioned to believe? If it was China or Russia, would you be more likely to believe it? Why would you disbelieve that Sweden would do such a thing when it has come clean and said it did do such a thing. In September, in 1994 and on the M/S Estonia.
And that would be the hole that was caused by the mystery submarine?

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And seeing that this hole is above water and in the superstructure and you did say that the ship couldn't sink if the hull would be watertight, instead it would float upside down, this hole couldn't have caused the sinking.
According to your story that is.
 
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Why would you think that water hadn't found it's way to the engine room?
An engine room is the height of several decks and usually stretches from the bilge to the upper deck.
Crew access to the engine room is from the upper decks, and hatches are left open for ventilation and safety.
If there is an emergency the engine room crew need to be able to escape directly to upper deck levels.

Survival suits take moments to put on and a ships crew is trained to put them on quickly.

Engine rooms are large open spaces low in the hull, they tend to flood quickly, engineers are usually trying to keep power to the ship in an emergency, it's their job.
If you look at a list of crew lost in ship sinking you will see that the engine room crew are high in the list of losses.

Once it is obvious that power can't be restored they will get out as quickly as they can.
Engineers and Stokers (engineering ratings, they don't 'stoke' anything anymore) wear safety boots without laces when on watch so they can kick them off in an emergency before they go over the side.

Why would you not expect to find crew members manning boats and rafts that are put over the side? It's their job, At least one crew member to each boat or raft to assist passengers. It's part of the training.
Do you expect them to line up on the deck and sing 'abide with me' while the ship sinks under them?
 
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And that would be the hole that was caused by the mystery submarine?

Edit:
And seeing that this hole is above water and in the superstructure and you did say that the ship couldn't sink if the hull would be watertight, instead it would float upside down, this hole couldn't have caused the sinking.
According to your story that is.


this is a good point, the damage is in the white painted area of the hull, that is above the waterline.
 
Professor Amdahl did various calculations. Having initially said the hole could have been caused by the bow visor falling off, said his findings based on physics equations seemed to indicate a force of either for example a 1,000tonne fishing vessel collision at 5 knots or a 5,000 tonne submarine at 1.9 knots (obviously there are a whole range of weights and speeds that would deliver such an impact).

Those two examples wouldn't strike with the same force, nor with the same kinetic energy. I'd be curious to know more about these "physics equations" and how Professor Amdahl actually modeled the problem (correctly modelling the parameters of the problem is typically the trickier part of solving these sorts of problems than simply crunching numbers)
 
By some psychologist who hires herself out as a defense 'expert witness' to try to undermine prosecution witnesses in exchange for lots of money. (Chauvin didn't hire her so she can't be much good.)

You've argued here from a position of righteous indignation over the notion that those who were first charged with investigating the loss of MS Estonia simply tried to shoehorn the facts into their desired narrative. You flat-out assured us you were simply trying to be objective. And now you're all-over desperate to dismiss an entire field of psychology because it doesn't fit your desired narrative.

You're the one who insisted that we must defer to the claims of eyewitnesses according to the popular (but incorrect) belief that people remember traumatic events more accurately than ordinary events. You declined to supply any evidence that this was actually the case -- merely a weak and eventually discarded claim that you once wrote a paper on the subject. I supported my objection with references to the relevant sciences that specifically tested the principle upon which you planned to base your argument. Despite your proffered and then hastily withdrawn claim to expertise, you don't seem to know who the major scholars are in the field of memory and eyewitness testimony. Nor -- once you discovered what their findings were -- do you seem to have any patience for them.

You're the one who claimed that the legal system defers to eyewitness testimony, and therefore it must consider such testimony reliable. I raised the point of the real reasons the legal system does this. In fact, the rhetorical role (although obviously not the nominal role) of an eyewitness in law is to be malleable in the hands of one party or the other. In any case, you opined that if these experts were so sure of themselves, they should test their claims in the crucible of a courtroom. And then when you find out that they have done so successfully, all you have is contempt for them. You're simply unwilling to incorporate fact that disputes your belief.

No, you're not objective. You're not even reasonably adversarial. You're trying to push a certain narrative based on the uncritical acceptance of eyewitness testimony. I dispute your belief, and I've given you the reasons why I disputed it. if you're unwilling to address those reasons with anything except mockery and recrimination, then you have effectively conceded the point.

Can we get back to the topic of M/S Estonia and why the survivors are complaining their experience of the tragedy doesn't match the imaginary timeline of the JAIC report?

As much as you want to brush important facts under the carpet, they remain relevant. Originally I asked whether you had experience in forensic engineering, and you assured me that your experience in forensic accounting was suitable. Now we see that it is not. In a forensic engineering investigation, the eyewitness claims and the body of objective forensic evidence rarely resolve. In fact, the two bodies of evidence rarely resolve individually. Eking out a plausible time line and, ultimately, an evident theory of causation, always involves the art of weighing the likely accuracy and relevance of evidence. The evidence generally supports multiple time lines and multiple explanations, depending upon the weight placed on evidence.

No doubt the survivors are highly emotionally invested in the event, and this translates to emotional investment in having their experience validated as they recall it. And the decision not to raise the wreck or recover the remains of deceased victims does not convey much compassion in their direction. However, a valid and valuable investigation must remain painfully dispassionate to the human emotion of loss, injury, and outrage. This is not to say any one investigation gets it right just by being dispassionate. But in weighing the details of eyewitness testimony, the vividness of apparent recall and the fervor of survivorship cannot predominate. The accuracy of such testimony is not as popularly believed or claimed, and that must affect the weighing whether it fits your desired narrative or not.
 
Why would you think that water hadn't found it's way to the engine room?
An engine room is the height of several decks and usually stretches from the bilge to the upper deck.
Crew access to the engine room is from the upper decks, and hatches are left open for ventilation and safety.
If there is an emergency the engine room crew need to be able to escape directly to upper deck levels.

Survival suits take moments to put on and a ships crew is trained to put them on quickly.

Engine rooms are large open spaces low in the hull, they tend to flood quickly, engineers are usually trying to keep power to the ship in an emergency, it's their job.
If you look at a list of crew lost in ship sinking you will see that the engine room crew are high in the list of losses.

Once it is obvious that power can't be restored they will get out as quickly as they can.
Engineers and Stokers (engineering ratings, they don't 'stoke' anything anymore) wear safety boots without laces when on watch so they can kick them off in an emergency before they go over the side.

Why would you not expect to find crew members manning boats and rafts that are put over the side? It's their job, At least one crew member to each boat or raft to assist passengers. It's part of the training.
Do you expect them to line up on the deck and sing 'abide with me' while the ship sinks under them?

No, no, no, surely the correct tune is 'Nearer my God to Thee' by violin.

The M/S Estonia's engine room had one 'emergency exit' (it was otherwise a watertight space) and that was via a metal wall ladder that led to the car deck. Fromt he car deck you then need to travers circa seventeen metres to the next set of stairs and so on and so forth. It can be done from floor 0 (the engine room) to deck 8 in two minutes, as Sillaste and Treu claim, in their statements. However, Sillaste and Treu are trying to claim they did this when the ship was at 70 ° and then at 90°, which as you will surmise is absolutely impossible. Why? Because the doors are now only 80cm wide, being on the side horizontally, instead of upright. It would be impossible to climb any stairs at that angle. In addition, by the time they got to Deck 8, which they claim was about 1:30 the angle was 90°. In other words, the deck was now a sheer wall, 12m high. They claim they managed to get on the port side (literally on the side of the listed ship) just in time before it sank. This is complete and utter nonsense. They changed their story when it was realised that - ahem - no way can you do what you did whilst the boat was upright in two minutes, when the boat is on its side. And on the way, run around doing all kinds of heroic errands. Treu changed his 'stairs' version to claim he climbed up through the chimney instead, to investigate the emergency generator. No way did this happen in the timings they claimed. The only chance both crew and passenger had a realistic chance of escape was after the boat listed up to 30° to 40° starboard side and then momentarily righted itself to 15 ° the opposite way, giving the ship personnel ten minutes to just get the hell out of there. It is clear Sillaste, Linde and Treu, all got the hell out of there the same time as everybody else - circa between 1:02 and 1:12 - and why, they even shared a life raft together.
 
And that would be the hole that was caused by the mystery submarine?

Edit:
And seeing that this hole is above water and in the superstructure and you did say that the ship couldn't sink if the hull would be watertight, instead it would float upside down, this hole couldn't have caused the sinking.
According to your story that is.

The hole is actually 22 metres by four metres (which is twelve feet high). This means blaming the sinking on the bow visor bolts and the car deck is incorrect by omission.

AFAIAA the rupture extends to the hull and takes in some passengers sleeping quarters.
 
No, no, no, surely the correct tune is 'Nearer my God to Thee' by violin.

The M/S Estonia's engine room had one 'emergency exit' (it was otherwise a watertight space) and that was via a metal wall ladder that led to the car deck. Fromt he car deck you then need to travers circa seventeen metres to the next set of stairs and so on and so forth. It can be done from floor 0 (the engine room) to deck 8 in two minutes, as Sillaste and Treu claim, in their statements. However, Sillaste and Treu are trying to claim they did this when the ship was at 70 ° and then at 90°, which as you will surmise is absolutely impossible. Why? Because the doors are now only 80cm wide, being on the side horizontally, instead of upright. It would be impossible to climb any stairs at that angle. In addition, by the time they got to Deck 8, which they claim was about 1:30 the angle was 90°. In other words, the deck was now a sheer wall, 12m high. They claim they managed to get on the port side (literally on the side of the listed ship) just in time before it sank. This is complete and utter nonsense. They changed their story when it was realised that - ahem - no way can you do what you did whilst the boat was upright in two minutes, when the boat is on its side. And on the way, run around doing all kinds of heroic errands. Treu changed his 'stairs' version to claim he climbed up through the chimney instead, to investigate the emergency generator. No way did this happen in the timings they claimed. The only chance both crew and passenger had a realistic chance of escape was after the boat listed up to 30° to 40° starboard side and then momentarily righted itself to 15 ° the opposite way, giving the ship personnel ten minutes to just get the hell out of there. It is clear Sillaste, Linde and Treu, all got the hell out of there the same time as everybody else - circa between 1:02 and 1:12 - and why, they even shared a life raft together.

Assuming this is all true (I do not), what do you conclude from this?
 
this is a good point, the damage is in the white painted area of the hull, that is above the waterline.

The blue bit is the hull, as you can see clearly, here. It also elides the superstructure white bit, just below where it says 'ESTLINE'.
 

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The blue bit is the hull, as you can see clearly, here. It also elides the superstructure white bit, just below where it says 'ESTLINE'.

If that vertical part of the hole is 4 meters.
How can the horizontal part be 22 meters?
 
this is a good point, the damage is in the white painted area of the hull, that is above the waterline.

Fully-loaded, MS Estonia rode with the painted waterline maybe a meter or so above the actual waterline. However, in rough seas the ship will roll. Therefore it's conceivable that the damaged area could have been well below the waterline at the moment of some hypothetical collision.

There are a number of problems with the theory that a submarine collided with the ship. First is the obvious fact that the sub would have needed to be running surfaced in order for it to happen. I can't think of any reason why a submarine would be doing so, especially in heavy weather. But it's the only way the damage could have arisen at the designated place.

Second, if we interpret the hole as a collision injury, the penetrant was evidently somewhat sharply pointed. We know what the collision between a small ship and a military submarine looks like due to the unfortunate loss of the Ehime Maru when she was struck by the submarine USS Greenveille. Military submarines tend to have spherical or spheroid bows, although some types in the Soviet navy at the time still had ship-like prows, although a few had sonar domes that would have crushed upon impact without inflicting an incised injury.

Third, the hole doesn't seem to display any coating transfer. Most submarines are coated with various forms of anechoic materials that are not especially strongly bonded to the steel hull underneath. These coatings transfer to the receiving vessel upon impact. Even ordinary ship hulls transfer paint coatings to the receiving vessel and are generally visible in photographs of the wreckage. In contrast, impacts with rock do not transfer coatings, but may often embed chunks of broken rock in crevices in the tear.
 
It tends to support the conclusions of others that the crew's versions were simply shoehorned to fit the the JAIC's predetermined narrative.

Does it support your own conclusions, or merely the conclusions of "others"? What do you mean by "shoehorned"?
 
Fully-loaded, MS Estonia rode with the painted waterline maybe a meter or so above the actual waterline. However, in rough seas the ship will roll. Therefore it's conceivable that the damaged area could have been well below the waterline at the moment of some hypothetical collision.

There are a number of problems with the theory that a submarine collided with the ship. First is the obvious fact that the sub would have needed to be running surfaced in order for it to happen. I can't think of any reason why a submarine would be doing so, especially in heavy weather. But it's the only way the damage could have arisen at the designated place.

Second, if we interpret the hole as a collision injury, the penetrant was evidently somewhat sharply pointed. We know what the collision between a small ship and a military submarine looks like due to the unfortunate loss of the Ehime Maru when she was struck by the submarine USS Greenveille. Military submarines tend to have spherical or spheroid bows, although some types in the Soviet navy at the time still had ship-like prows, although a few had sonar domes that would have crushed upon impact without inflicting an incised injury.

Third, the hole doesn't seem to display any coating transfer. Most submarines are coated with various forms of anechoic materials that are not especially strongly bonded to the steel hull underneath. These coatings transfer to the receiving vessel upon impact. Even ordinary ship hulls transfer paint coatings to the receiving vessel and are generally visible in photographs of the wreckage. In contrast, impacts with rock do not transfer coatings, but may often embed chunks of broken rock in crevices in the tear.


Of course, as in a motorway collision, the force of impact between vehicles can vary greatly. Here's a similar accident to the Ehime Maru:

In reports from Japan, a Maritime Self Defense Force submarine named Soryu has hit a commercial ship while surfacing.


In the incident around 50 kilometers south of one of Japan’s main islands, Shikoku, sources indicate there was only minor damage to the submarine, but according to initial reports no information on the result of the collision as it pertained to the civilian vessel.

<snip>

And although Mr. Kishi’s ministry was initially unable to identify the commercial vessel, he was able to state that the Chinese crew aboard the Ocean Artemis didn’t even feel the collision and had thus left the area.
Taiwan Times
 
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