For the record incidentally, I think Emily's Cat's analogy was a very good one, in terms of the issue it addressed. I also agree entirely with the underlying assessment re males and females.
But.
This is, unfortunately, of little or no relevance - as a principle - when evaluating the normalisation of transgender rights. Put simply: a government cannot (and should not) ban transwomen from women's changing rooms (etc) on the basis of males being statistically more likely to be strong and aggressive than females.
What governments can - and should - do is 1) sort out transgender rights, then 2) examine and identify (before the fact) all potential unwanted negative consequences of awarding those rights; and then 3) introduce as many contingencies as are reasonable and practical to mitigate those perceived risks. And then monitor carefully and adjust. And only if it turns out that there's no practical way of reducing the real-life risks to acceptable levels (and it's up to governments to determine what "acceptable" is here), modify or reverse the original rights legislation as required.