The Biden Presidency

[TurkeysGhost]

So the takeaway seems to be that Biden isn't going to be left enough so have the Repubs instead.

The takeaway is that the Democrats are on pace to lose again, and it won't be because leftists vote for Trump or Cotton or whatever other fascistic ghoul runs next, it'll be because the public is totally disillusioned by the idea that the political process can actually make things better.

Take a look what is happening on the right in preparation for the next election. The extreme right is rallying their base, leaning hard into culture war issues like "cancel culture" or increasingly unhinged transphobia. Their firing up the engines of reactionary hate, and that's going to drive their base to the polls. More importantly, now that they are out of power, they are once again pointing out the extreme failings of our society. Sure, they have no solutions to actually improve these material conditions, but that doesn't matter. They're working up their coalition into a frenzy and, like always, it's going to work.

Meanwhile Democrats are letting popular policies like minimum wage increases die on the floor. They're pointing their finger at byzantine rules like the "parliamentarian" and claiming that nothing can be done. They may as well hang a sign around their neck saying "we can't govern, better things aren't possible".

The solution is for popular progressive candidates to primary these worthless centrists and exert more influence within the party, but that's a longer term solution. Meanwhile the GOP sees the writing on the wall and is pushing full ahead on gutting voting rights and establishing their reactionary party as a permanent ruling minority. We're looking at a generation of a Roberts SCOTUS that will strike down any legal challenge to voting restrictions or gerrymandering or anything other mechanism that the right wing will use to entrench itself into power.

There simply may not be enough time.

 

[Belz...]

And yet Trump could have won the election if around 43,000 votes in three states had gone the other way. That should chill us all.

It should, but Biden's EC victory was as wide as Trump's four years back. There's a 7 million votes difference between the two candidates.

 

[Belz...]

Partly because they have people like Manchin in their party, who might be a democrat but is also a moderate who often opposes many of the more progressive policies (like the $15 minimum wage and the filibuster).

So start with a 12$ wage. It's still better than what it is right now by a a wide margin.

 

[Belz...]

The Republicans will end it the second it helps them, should the situation present itself. The Democrats get nothing for trying to preserve it, other than pandering to conservative squishes like Manchin.

Exactly. The GOP has demonstrated that it cannot be reasoned with or compromised with. Now that the Democrats have the ability to pass bills, they should do so with wanton abandon.

 

[Belz...]

On my side of the world, your moderate Democrats would fit in nicely with our right wing conservative party, The Nats, while AOC, Katie Porter, Ilhan Omar, Mark Pocan, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley Bill de Blasio, Jeff Merkley, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, whom you would regard as left wing progressive or very progressive, we would consider centre-left moderates.

Same up here.

 

[Belz...]

If the party cared about this issue, there would be no doubt about who's fault it is. Holdouts can be pressured. If Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding this thing up, a public airing of the issue will turn the screws on them. Let Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding it up explain to the rest of the party, and the public, why they don't support this popular proposal.


The party seems more inclined to let the issue die quietly. They'll point to some pretextual reason, such as the parliamentarian, to take the issue off the table and they'll do their best to never mention it again.

Seems to me like the 'representative' part of 'representative democracy' isn't working as intended, least of all in the US. Maybe we should take a page from the Athenians and assign the members of the government by lot? At least we'd know the people in place 'represent' whatever district they're from.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

The Prospect had learned that Seth Harris, a former deputy secretary of labor and acting secretary of labor under President Obama who has connections to the ridesharing industry’s thunderous Prop 22 victory in California last year, a shattering event for U.S. labor law, has taken a key policy position in the administration.

Top labor officials were aware that Harris was in line for a White House job, yet were not informed of the specific position. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. But hours after the Prospect asked, Bloomberg reported that Harris would become a deputy assistant to the president for labor and the economy.

“I don’t think they are particularly proud of this hire,” said Jeff Hauser of the Revolving Door Project, whose organization has been critical of Harris in the past. “Clearly, the most newsworthy thing he has been involved in in the last several years is seen as something that has been very bad for the American labor movement.”

Architect of California's prop 22 gets job in the Biden admin.

The results have been predictably terrible, with grocery stores firing their full-time delivery drivers in favor of Prop 22–enabled gig workers, Uber and Lyft jacking up prices for rides, and health care stipends from the “benefits program” for drivers coming up way short of what was advertised. Rideshare companies have vowed to bring the Prop 22 regime to other states.

https://prospect.org/cabinet-watch/quiet-return-to-government-obama-era-labor-official-seth-harris/

Prop 22 always for tech giants to continue to classify their employees as independent contractors, undercutting labor law protections for workers.

 

[wareyin]

If the party cared about this issue, there would be no doubt about who's fault it is. Holdouts can be pressured. If Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding this thing up, a public airing of the issue will turn the screws on them. Let Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding it up explain to the rest of the party, and the public, why they don't support this popular proposal.


The party seems more inclined to let the issue die quietly. They'll point to some pretextual reason, such as the parliamentarian, to take the issue off the table and they'll do their best to never mention it again.

What sort of pressure do you imagine the party can put on Manchin that would sway him? He's popular in his home state while other Democrats aren't precisely because he defies Dem policies. Oh, no, threaten to make waves about his intransigence and make him even more popular and sure to be voted in next time?

All this armchair quarterbacking about how the Democrats should be ramming through your pet proposals simply ignores the obvious fact that they don't have the ability to do so with such a slim majority. Yeah, you wish they could wave a magic wand and make Manchin cooperate, but it's to his political benefit to not cooperate.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

What sort of pressure do you imagine the party can put on Manchin that would sway him? He's popular in his home state while other Democrats aren't precisely because he defies Dem policies. Oh, no, threaten to make waves about his intransigence and make him even more popular and sure to be voted in next time?

All this armchair quarterbacking about how the Democrats should be ramming through your pet proposals simply ignores the obvious fact that they don't have the ability to do so with such a slim majority. Yeah, you wish they could wave a magic wand and make Manchin cooperate, but it's to his political benefit to not cooperate.

Is Manchin's resistance to increasing the minimum wage popular in his home state?

the min wage in W. Virginia is 8.75 an hour. The state has the 6th highest poverty levels in the country.

https://wvpolicy.org/data-released-today-shows-west-virginia-had-6th-highest-poverty-rate-in-the-country-even-before-covid-hardship-more-relief-needed/#:~:text=An%20estimated%20278%2C734%20West%20Virginians,rate%20among%20the%2050%20states.

11.8 percent of adults reported that their household sometimes or often didn’t have enough to eat in the last seven days.
17.0 percent of adults with children reported that their kids sometimes or often didn’t eat enough in the last seven days because they couldn’t afford to.
19.0 percent of adults who live in rental housing reported that they were behind on rent, and 6.0 percent are behind on their mortgage payments.
And 29.0 percent of all children in West Virginia live in a family that is either not getting enough to eat or is behind on housing payments.

The min wage seems like an issue that Manchin might be vulnerable to being pressured on.

 

[wareyin]

Is Manchin's resistance to increasing the minimum wage popular in his home state?

the min wage in W. Virginia is 8.75 an hour. The state has the 6th highest poverty levels in the country.

https://wvpolicy.org/data-released-today-shows-west-virginia-had-6th-highest-poverty-rate-in-the-country-even-before-covid-hardship-more-relief-needed/#:~:text=An%20estimated%20278%2C734%20West%20Virginians,rate%20among%20the%2050%20states.



The min wage seems like an issue that Manchin might be vulnerable to being pressured on.

Manchin has publicly stated he won't go higher than $11. There's lots of news articles about it. That doesn't appear to have hurt him at home. Exactly how should the Democrats pressure him? Be specific, please.

 

[Horatius]

So start with a 12$ wage. It's still better than what it is right now by a wide margin.

One thing that I haven't seen discussed enough is that this "$15 minimum wage" thing doesn't mean it will become $15 overnight. It will be implemented gradually. In fact, it won't even be the $12 you suggest for several years:

The first increase to $9.50 an hour would occur the day a law becomes effective. Congress can set the law to become effective at a later date than when the president signs it. Annual increases would follow until reaching $15 an hour, four years after the effective date, then the rate would be reviewed annually and adjusted based on changes to median hourly earnings of all employees.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-minimum-wage-proposal-when-would-it-reach-15-an-hour-11612550898


If you look at the graph there, it hits $12.50 in July 2023.

So there's already a built-in compromise. And they still can't get enough people to agree to it.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Manchin has publicly stated he won't go higher than $11. There's lots of news articles about it. That doesn't appear to have hurt him at home. Exactly how should the Democrats pressure him? Be specific, please.

You're right, we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas.

It won't hurt Manchin at home when the Democrats resume being the minority party either, ya know.

 

[wareyin]

You're right, we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas.

It won't hurt Manchin at home when the Democrats resume being the minority party either, ya know.

You're right that it won't hurt Manchin if you were to get your wish that the Democrats resume the minority party status. That doesn't really answer the question, though. You are claiming the Democrats should pressure Manchin, as though they have the ability to change his opinion and the fault is theirs for not doing so. I'd like to know exactly how you think they should do so.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

You're right that it won't hurt Manchin if you were to get your wish that the Democrats resume the minority party status. That doesn't really answer the question, though. You are claiming the Democrats should pressure Manchin, as though they have the ability to change his opinion and the fault is theirs for not doing so. I'd like to know exactly how you think they should do so.

In all the usual ways. They can promise him other things he wants. They can threaten to take away things he wants. They can make paint him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda. They can support challengers in his area, or threaten to do so. You know, politics. Wheeling and dealing, the kind of thing they do all the time for issues they actually care about, as opposed to the helpless play-acting they do when it comes to passing progressive policy.

Is there evidence that Manchin won't budge from this position, given the proper incentives? Is there evidence that the party has even tried?

 

[Belz...]

One thing that I haven't seen discussed enough is that this "$15 minimum wage" thing doesn't mean it will become $15 overnight. It will be implemented gradually. In fact, it won't even be the $12 you suggest for several years:

That's true. I had forgotten that.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Harris should rule that the minimum wage is a reconcilable topic if for no other reason than to ensure that more modest minimum wage proposals are also reconcilable. Ruling that it can't be reconciled is basically giving up the possibility of passing any hikes.

https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1367157767866380292

If Harris allows the Parliamentarian decision to stand, that's pretty much shutting the door on any chance of any min wage hike. It would be better to overrule the Parliamentarian and let the $15 wage fail to get 51 votes, because at least that leaves open the possibility of future passage through the reconciliation process.

If not, it's pretty much over. It's hard to imagine 10 Republican ghouls crossing the aisle to get to 60 votes, even if a lesser wage hike approved by Manchin were proposed.

If Harris allows the Parliamentarian ruling to stand, min wage increase is a dead issue.

 

[wareyin]

In all the usual ways. They can promise him other things he wants. They can threaten to take away things he wants. They can make paint him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda. They can support challengers in his area, or threaten to do so. You know, politics. Wheeling and dealing, the kind of thing they do all the time for issues they actually care about, as opposed to the helpless play-acting they do when it comes to passing progressive policy.

Yes, painting him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda will definitely motivate him. As that is what he already paints himself as, it will motivate him to continue impeding.

What can they threaten to take away? What can they promise him? This isn't specifics, this is vague pabulum that ignores the reality of the situation.

Is there evidence that Manchin won't budge from this position, given the proper incentives? Is there evidence that the party has even tried?

Other than his say so? What other evidence would you accept?

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Yes, painting him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda will definitely motivate him. As that is what he already paints himself as, it will motivate him to continue impeding.

What can they threaten to take away? What can they promise him? This isn't specifics, this is vague pabulum that ignores the reality of the situation.



Other than his say so? What other evidence would you accept?

The hardball approach would be to overrule the parliamentarian, include a min wage hike as part of covid relief, and dare Manchin to veto it and be the sole reason why American aren't getting their checks.

 

[Bob001]

It should, but Biden's EC victory was as wide as Trump's four years back. There's a 7 million votes difference between the two candidates.

I think you missed the point. In 2020, if just 43,000 or so votes had switched in three states, the EC would have been tied, and the Repub House would have chosen Trump. The popular vote wouldn't have mattered at all.

 

[Belz...]

I think you missed the point. In 2020, if just 43,000 or so votes had switched in three states, the EC would have been tied, and the Repub House would have chosen Trump. The popular vote wouldn't have mattered at all.

No, you're missing my point. Trump called his victory a landslide, and Biden's EC win was the exact same. And if we ignore the EC, he got 7m more votes. Your point and my point don't negate each other.