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Split Thread A second impeachment

dirtywick said:
i think mitch knows that in 4 years trump has cost the GOP both houses of congress and the presidency. i'd be surprised if he felt there was something to gain by protecting him and keeping his leadership of the party intact.
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I've been saying for a couple months that it looks like McConnell is setting things up to reconstruct the Republican party without anything Trump. I think he hates Trump, even if he has found him sometimes a useful tool. But the is glad to be rid of him. That was most apparent when McConnell congratulated Biden and Harris on their victory and then gave one of his rare little creepy smiles.

McConnell wants to kick the crazy to the curb, or at least back to the fringe, and restore his Grand Old Party. That starts with Trump. He want to convict and prevent Trump from running again. With that, he would be out of the party, for good.

Trying to kick him out of office would have been difficult. McConnell would have had to take specific actions. He probably didn't have enough Republican Senators on board for that, even though some of them would be on board with conviction after he is out of office. It could have resulted in a big backlash. McConnell wants to reform the party, not destroy it.

Since he is publicly accusing Trump of being responsible for the riot but not actually calling for conviction on the impeachment charges, it means either he doesn't have the votes locked for conviction yet or he wants to remain noncommittal until he gets the articles from the House. That may take some time. Pelosi may want to make sure Biden can get in a new Cabinet and other positions and manage covid issues, because that is most important. And wait for more evidence to roll in to make a stronger case.
 
dirtywick said:
i think mitch knows that in 4 years trump has cost the GOP both houses of congress and the presidency. i'd be surprised if he felt there was something to gain by protecting him and keeping his leadership of the party intact.
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It's all about the base, not about Trump. In two years when the Democrats have a chance to increase their strength in the House and the Senate, McConnell will need that base to push the Democrats back.

Right at the moment McConnell is negotiating with Schumer and hoping to lull Schumer into a false sense of security that McConnell is done screwing the Democrats. But McConnell started screwing the Democrats in earnest when he vowed to make Obama a one term POTUS.

I hope Schumer knows better that to trust McConnell has changed in any significant way.
 
alfaniner said:
The PDJT himself is talking about forming a new party, the Patriot Party.
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I would expect that to split the Republican party pretty nastily, with the GOP losing the loyal T**** base, enough to guarantee further losses without enough in the Patriot party to win much of anything. If nothing else, though, I'd expect that as soon as T**** takes his base away from the Republican Party, there would be that much less reason for McConnell and his cronies to pander to them, so I'm guessing it's more of a blackmail threat: if you vote to convict I'll pick up my dollies and go home.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
It's all about the base, not about Trump. In two years when the Democrats have a chance to increase their strength in the House and the Senate, McConnell will need that base to push the Democrats back.

Right at the moment McConnell is negotiating with Schumer and hoping to lull Schumer into a false sense of security that McConnell is done screwing the Democrats. But McConnell started screwing the Democrats in earnest when he vowed to make Obama a one term POTUS.

I hope Schumer knows better that to trust McConnell has changed in any significant way.
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in 4 years they lost both houses and the presidency so i'm not even sure trump's base is making up for moderates and independants jumping ship. he hasn't won them anything. even best case, i'm sure mcconnell doesn't want a handful full of qanon senators in 2022 and beyond

mcconnell doesn't have to change, this is what's good for mcconnell
 
dirtywick said:
It's all about the base, not about Trump. In two years when the Democrats have a chance to increase their strength in the House and the Senate, McConnell will need that base to push the Democrats back.
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in 4 years they lost both houses and the presidency so i'm not even sure trump's base is making up for moderates and independants jumping ship. he hasn't won them anything.
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True, Trump's appeal to is base core support didn't overcome the loss of moderates. But that doesn't necessarily mean they can risk alienating the MAGAchuds either (given how slim the margins are).

The republicans best hope (if they want power) is to not impeach (thus not alienating the MAGAchud, and hope that Trump doesn't run in 2024 (either because he is in jail for some fraud he's committed, or because he died of a cheeseburger overdose) so that they can select a candidate who is, well, not Trump (and thus won't drive away the moderate voters), but is right-wing enough to keep the MAGAchud willing to vote republican.

even best case, i'm sure mcconnell doesn't want a handful full of qanon senators in 2022 and beyond

mcconnell doesn't have to change, this is what's good for mcconnell
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I don't think Moscow Mitch cares how many Q-Anon senators he has in the republican party, as long as there are more republican senators than democratic senators. (I mean, he'd probably prefer a well-healed Republican, but any republican is better than a democrat if it means more power for him.)
 
alfaniner said:
The PDJT himself is talking about forming a new party, the Patriot Party.
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bruto said:
I would expect that to split the Republican party pretty nastily, with the GOP losing the loyal T**** base, enough to guarantee further losses without enough in the Patriot party to win much of anything. If nothing else, though, I'd expect that as soon as T**** takes his base away from the Republican Party, there would be that much less reason for McConnell and his cronies to pander to them, so I'm guessing it's more of a blackmail threat: if you vote to convict I'll pick up my dollies and go home.
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With any luck, that will be the outcome, the deplorables will join Trump in his PP tee-pee; to adapt the old LBJ adage, a small tent with a crowd whose whole purpose is to be people pissing out.
 
turingtest said:
With any luck, that will be the outcome, the deplorables will join Trump in his PP tee-pee; to adapt the old LBJ adage, a small tent with a crowd whose whole purpose is to be people pissing out.
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I know it sounds good for the rest of us to have the Republican party split like that, but I'm not sure it is. To me, the P-Party sounds like Tea Party Version 1.1. Instead of being an actual separate party, the P-Party may just be unionizing the crazier side of the Republican Party to give them a stronger voice in Republican politics.
 
dasmiller said:
I know it sounds good for the rest of us to have the Republican party split like that, but I'm not sure it is. To me, the P-Party sounds like Tea Party Version 1.1. Instead of being an actual separate party, the P-Party may just be unionizing the crazier side of the Republican Party to give them a stronger voice in Republican politics.
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That's a good point. I guess what I'm hoping is that the GOP will learn a lesson from the 2020 election, that appealing to that crazier base is no guarantee of a win, and that they will themselves move to marginalize them as unnecessary; it may be something like this that McConnell is thinking of when he says he's considering voting to convict Trump on the impeachment article, as a sort of strategic (if not principled) exorcism. I've never been a fan of the GOP, but they were, at one time, a responsible conservative party, and I think at least two responsible parties are a necessity for a working democracy.
 
People who prefer one party are always too quick to predict the other's fracturing (or demise by other means). But it would actually be bad for the Democrats if the Republicans did fall apart.

Both parties are divided, but one of the major factions in each case is the same: the corporate bribe-takers whose real job there, as assigned to them by their real employers, is to make sure that as much money as possible keeps flowing up from the peasants to their corporate masters. Take away this crowd's support & influence in the Republican Party and it'll still be around, just more in the other party instead. The influx to the "Democrats" will help that party "win" against Republicans, but it will shift the party's own internal division even more in favor of the faction that was already just like one of the Republican factions anyway.
 
turingtest said:
I've never been a fan of the GOP, but they were, at one time, a responsible conservative party, and I think at least two responsible parties are a necessity for a working democracy.
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I don't consider myself a Democrat, but I've been a functional Democrat (at the national level) for many years now because the Republicans have gone kinda crazy. I'd much prefer to be choosing between two decent, responsible parties. Currently, I find myself choosing between, "Eh, maybe," and "Oh, God, not that!"

I remember being very pleased about the 2008 Presidential election because I liked both McCain and Obama*. I think that's how our elections should always be, and I'd be thrilled to see the U.S. get back to that.


*Neither were perfect, and I can point out things that I consider serious lapses by both of them. But I don't think it's realistic to expect un-flawed candidates. Or people in general.
 
Delvo said:
People who prefer one party are always too quick to predict the other's fracturing (or demise by other means). But it would actually be bad for the Democrats if the Republicans did fall apart.

Both parties are divided, but one of the major factions in each case is the same: the corporate bribe-takers whose real job there, as assigned to them by their real employers, is to make sure that as much money as possible keeps flowing up from the peasants to their corporate masters. Take away this crowd's support & influence in the Republican Party and it'll still be around, just more in the other party instead. The influx to the "Democrats" will help that party "win" against Republicans, but it will shift the party's own internal division even more in favor of the faction that was already just like one of the Republican factions anyway.
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The GOP had no issue subsuming the Tea Party.
Everyone of the Trumpistas will either rejoin the Party or become disillusioned with politics altogether.
 
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