Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

[lomiller]

Meaning: you seem to be confirming that BTC is a speculative purchase

not even that. True speculation still has an underlying reasoning behind it. Eg you can speculate on how much a city will grow and where demand of land will be high in the future, so you buy land there and wait. Alternatively you can invest in wheat futures because you think dry weather in key regions will negatively impact supply. Again, there are still real, physical reasons underpinning speculation, at least if you want to do is successfully.

Bitcoin is more like betting on a football game, but without the fun of cheering for your local team. Increasingly though it's like placing bets with criminals who are rigging the games behind the scenes.

 

[psionl0]

Bitcoin hasn't amounted to anything. If you think that will change it's up to you to offer reasons why.

$34,000 is a lot of amounting.

If you want to join the fools who have said in the past that bitcoin's price will never be this high again then go right ahead. You have already made yourself busy by copy/pasting all of the old arguments that have been used against bitcoin in the past.

Again, none of this applies to bitcoin.

And yet bitcoin speculators make more money than the lot of them.

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Kinda ironic that banks are now on board with Stable Coins and blockchain solution for doing business. From now on there can be no denial that BTC has changed the banking system. And true to the OP, BTC has changed the World, at least everywhere there is a bank.

https://www.finextra.com/newsarticl...e-use-of-stablecoins-for-banking-transactions

"Top US banking regulator, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has approved the use of stablecoins for the settlement of financial transactions by banks."

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

$34,000 is a lot of amounting.
If you want to join the fools who have said in the past that bitcoin's price will never be this high again then go right ahead. You have already made yourself busy by copy/pasting all of the old arguments that have been used against bitcoin in the past.


And yet bitcoin speculators make more money than the lot of them.

$35,729 a few minutes ago. It blew past $35K and is now testing $36K.

 

[blutoski]

$34,000 is a lot of amounting.

If you want to join the fools who have said in the past that bitcoin's price will never be this high again then go right ahead. You have already made yourself busy by copy/pasting all of the old arguments that have been used against bitcoin in the past.

This is where arguments are being conflated I think, and it's a subject matter I believe is appropriate for a skeptics forum. I mentioned stock picking in another thread, same thing. This is is like a lot of skeptical topics. Dowsing, for example.

Nobody's saying a dowser can't get it right once in awhile. Just that skeptics appreciate it's chance. Dowser advocates point to the high profile correct guesses, but ignore comparison against the background success rate.

And yet bitcoin speculators make more money than the lot of them.

"and yet, dowsers make a lot of money, therefore dowsing must work, it can't be people misattributing skill for random luck." Also see: homeopathy, intercessory prayer, &c.

People have also lost fortunes speculating in crypto. Statistically, at the moment, more people are coming out ahead because it's rising in price. (in other words: consider the background rate) Later, when it crashes, more people will be losing than winning. It's just the statistics of large volumes of guesses.

skepticism is theoretically a generalized skill, but these types of discussions proved to me that no, it isn't. it's a belief system and appears very compartmentalized.

 

[psionl0]

This is where arguments are being conflated I think, and it's a subject matter I believe is appropriate for a skeptics forum. I mentioned stock picking in another thread, same thing. This is is like a lot of skeptical topics. Dowsing, for example.

Nobody's saying a dowser can't get it right once in awhile. Just that skeptics appreciate it's chance. Dowser advocates point to the high profile correct guesses, but ignore comparison against the background success rate.





"and yet, dowsers make a lot of money, therefore dowsing must work, it can't be people misattributing skill for random luck." Also see: homeopathy, intercessory prayer, &c.

People have also lost fortunes speculating in crypto. Statistically, at the moment, more people are coming out ahead because it's rising in price. (in other words: consider the background rate) Later, when it crashes, more people will be losing than winning. It's just the statistics of large volumes of guesses.

skepticism is theoretically a generalized skill, but these types of discussions proved to me that no, it isn't. it's a belief system and appears very compartmentalized.

You need to examine the price history before you act like you know it all.

I am not cherry picking some low price and some high price. I am looking almost exclusively at the historical price peaks. And the simple fact is that everybody who has bought and "hodled" bitcoin is ahead on the deal. This is true no matter when in the last 12 years they bought bitcoin. This includes the price peak of almost $20K in December 2017.

The only losers are the ones who bought when the price was high then panicked and sold when the price came crashing. Had they kept their nerve, they would be popping the champagne today. It is no different to any investments you might make in the stock market. Had I sold my stock holdings earlier this year when the stock market was in free fall I would have locked in some serious losses. But now they are only disappointing returns.

Do all the special pleading you like but bitcoin is no different to any other instrument of speculation.

 

[lomiller]

"and yet, dowsers make a lot of money, therefore dowsing must work, it can't be people misattributing skill for random luck." Also see: homeopathy, intercessory prayer, &c.

People have also lost fortunes speculating in crypto. Statistically, at the moment, more people are coming out ahead because it's rising in price. (in other words: consider the background rate) Later, when it crashes, more people will be losing than winning. It's just the statistics of large volumes of guesses.

Further to: it's also important to remember that bitcoin speculators, on average, make absolutely nothing. There is no mechanism for them to make money that doesn't come out of some other speculators pocket.

 

[blutoski]

You need to examine the price history before you act like you know it all.

Do all the special pleading you like but bitcoin is no different to any other instrument of speculation.

I'm confused because it seems like we're aggressively agreeing. I have no idea what special pleading you are referring to.

I'm one of those 'buy and hold' people (refer to my anecdote in an earlier post about getting mine at a bitcoin faucet 10 years ago) - but I consider it the same as if I bet on black 11, not congratulating myself that it's a reward for some sort of ability or knowledge.

 

[blutoski]

Further to: it's also important to remember that bitcoin speculators, on average, make absolutely nothing. There is no mechanism for them to make money that doesn't come out of some other speculators pocket.

I half agree: net, at the moment, is positive, because the random chance baseline is net positive.

It will be net zero when bitcoin is $0.

 

[blutoski]

I half agree: net, at the moment, is positive, because the random chance baseline is net positive.

It will be net zero when bitcoin is $0.

Actually, I stand corrected. The net zero is higher, because we need to subtract mining costs. There are estimates that total bitmining costs so far is around 20% of market cap, so breakeven for winners equalling losers is arguably around $5200.

 

[lomiller]

I half agree: net, at the moment, is positive, because the random chance baseline is net positive.

It will be net zero when bitcoin is $0.

While there may be a +ve book value, in terms of actual money speculators have spent more real $ than they have taken out and there is no way for one speculator to get any real money out without someone else putting real money in.

This is different from something like the real-estate market where the owner can rent it out, build a hose and live there, build a business and make money, etc. Speculators have someone other than speculators to sell to. Other then a little bit of criminal activity this isn't really the case with bit coin.

 

[lomiller]

Actually, I stand corrected. The net zero is higher, because we need to subtract mining costs. There are estimates that total bitmining costs so far is around 20% of market cap, so breakeven for winners equalling losers is arguably around $5200.

good point. After the miners take out their share, the amount of real $ left for speculators is ALWAYS going to be less than what the speculators put in in the first place.

 

[blutoski]

While there may be a +ve book value, in terms of actual money speculators have spent more real $ than they have taken out and there is no way for one speculator to get any real money out without someone else putting real money in.

This is different from something like the real-estate market where the owner can rent it out, build a hose and live there, build a business and make money, etc. Speculators have someone other than speculators to sell to. Other then a little bit of criminal activity this isn't really the case with bit coin.

Yes I guess I'm including unrealized gains as 'winning' even if the speculator has not pocketed the profit yet.

 

[lomiller]

Yes I guess I'm including unrealized gains as 'winning' even if the speculator has not pocketed the profit yet.

That's why it's sometimes compared to a Ponzi Scheme. There are people taking money and profits out, but the only source of new money flowing in is coming from would be "investors". regardless of book value it's impossible for everyone who has bought bitcoin to get all their initial investment money back.

 

[psionl0]

I'm confused because it seems like we're aggressively agreeing. I have no idea what special pleading you are referring to.

I'm one of those 'buy and hold' people (refer to my anecdote in an earlier post about getting mine at a bitcoin faucet 10 years ago) - but I consider it the same as if I bet on black 11, not congratulating myself that it's a reward for some sort of ability or knowledge.

How can you compare speculating on bitcoin to betting on black 11 and then conclude that we are agressively agreeing?

Everyone knows that if you consistently bet on black 11 you will lose eventually because of the house edge. Bitcoin's 12 year price history shows the opposite to be the case. It may not be the case indefinitely but it has never been a black 11.

 

[psionl0]

That's why it's sometimes compared to a Ponzi Scheme. There are people taking money and profits out, but the only source of new money flowing in is coming from would be "investors". regardless of book value it's impossible for everyone who has bought bitcoin to get all their initial investment money back.

This is a well worn pattern in these threads. While the price is rising spectacularly, it brings out a host of naysayers shouting "PONZI" "PYRAMID" TULIP MANIA" etc.

When the price finally peaks and starts tumbling these same people will say "I told you bitcoin is a bad investment. The price will NEVER be this high again".

Rinse and repeat.

 

[lomiller]

This is a well worn pattern in these threads. While the price is rising spectacularly, it brings out a host of naysayers shouting "PONZI" "PYRAMID" TULIP MANIA" etc.

The actual "well worn pattern" in this thread is people pointing to real problems with bitcoin, along with real supporting facts to which psionl0 responds with hand waving dishonesty and innuendo.

 

[Dr.Sid]

I wonder .. lot of BTC will never be cashed out. Keys are forgotten, and some people die while hodling, and passing BTC to heirs might be problematic, due the anonymity.
So maybe BTC is just sharing the money we don't really need at the moment ? :-D

 

[blutoski]

This is a well worn pattern in these threads. While the price is rising spectacularly, it brings out a host of naysayers shouting "PONZI" "PYRAMID" TULIP MANIA" etc.

When the price finally peaks and starts tumbling these same people will say "I told you bitcoin is a bad investment. The price will NEVER be this high again".

Rinse and repeat.

Well, it's definitely not anything I've ever said, so I am concerned you're arguing against an imaginary me.

What I'm saying - for the record - is that it's something with little or no intrinsic value, so its pricing is proportional to popularity rather than yields, and therefore at the mercy of a secondary market, and unpredictable. It could go down to zero. Or not. And in the meantime will fluctuate unpredictably. Its value cannot be analyzed because it does not reflect significant external utility.

There is money to be made in arbitrage and speculation (which is where my analogy to black eleven comes in), there's no doubt about that, but nothing special about it vs, say, beanie babies.

At the moment, if I was to guess on the current blip, it's because there's only so much surplus asset money to go around, and the market is looking dodgy, real estate is iffy with people moving to the suburbs or maybe not, so BTC is a reasonable Plan C for those who share the mindset that it's not beanie babies.

 

[blutoski]

I wonder .. lot of BTC will never be cashed out.

Assuming there is no expansion, my expectation is that the life cycle of BTC is that eventually there will be none left in circulation. Timeframes are debatable, and of course, expansion is always an option.

Keys are forgotten, and some people die while hodling,

Don't forget destroyed. My friend kept his keys on a USB key that failed. At today's pricepoint, that was a half million dollar USB key.

I have mine engraved on metal and stored in a safety deposit box.

and passing BTC to heirs might be problematic, due the anonymity.

This one, I'm not sure sure I agree with. My heirs have instructions for accessing the BTC wallet the same as they do for my conventional accounts.

So maybe BTC is just sharing the money we don't really need at the moment ? :-D

If you mean, could it be a sink for surplus cash, that's my interpretation of the current runup, yes.