Is the Lottery for fools?

Starthinker said:
The algebra teacher once told me the odds were a million to one if you bought a ticket but it's zero if you don't buy a ticket.
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To which I usually respond "I only have .0001% less chance of winning than you do and I still have my dollar."
 
tsg said:
To which I usually respond "I only have .0001% less chance of winning than you do and I still have my dollar."
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Yes, but keep in mind he won the jackpot. That was my point. Someone who has won the lottery has a very different view than those of us who haven't.
 
Starthinker said:
Yes, but keep in mind he won the jackpot. That was my point. Someone who has won the lottery has a very different view than those of us who haven't.
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So does the guy that hits his two-outer on the river for a 2:1 payoff[1]. It doesn't make it not a bad play.


[1] Texas Holdem. A two-outer on the river is a 22:1 underdog.
 
I've seen claims to compare the chances of winning the lottery jackpot with winning the £1million Premium Bond prize, but I'm not sure how they work it out, given the very different systems.

I think you'd have to look at how much interest on your capital you lost by having the investment in Premium Bonds rather than a savings account, and then figure what your chances of winning the lottery jackpot would have been if you'd spent the same amount on lottery tickets over the same period.

Too hard for little me.

Rolfe.

PS. I don't have all my capital in Premium Bonds, or even close.
 
I think it depends on your mode of thinking. I personally don't enjoy gambling, so I don't. But if you enjoy the play, the anticipation, the fun of "what would I do if I won" the a pound seems a small enough price for the fantasy.

Now if you're playing because you actually believe you're going to win someday, well then, that's pretty unlikely.
 
EGarrett said:
Maybe the cat thought that it depended on how hard she scratched the bag? After all, in the wild, getting food out of a victim is largely dependent on how hard you rip it apart...
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I remember that particular problem from Psych class. Conditioning works better, and lasts longer, if you don't reward the desired behaviour every time. It takes only a little longer to build up the conditioning, but a lack of a reward will not so quickly break it down, as they're used to being rewarded only part of the time, so they will continue to expect it. It fits natural prey/food-seeking behaviour. Since food/prey is available at similar locations, but only sporadically, an animal will instinctually keep checking the same places, since there chance of reward is higher than the resources expended in checking.

Gambling works on a similar sporadic reward principle, a few occasional small payouts keep the gambler from simply becoming "de-conditioned", and reinforces the idea that there will be an eventual much larger payout. The psychology is rather more complex than simple hunting responses; but it is still based on the same instinct.
 
schplurg said:
I once saw a website that listed all the numbers available in the lottery, and the frequency that each number is chosen by players...no url, was a long time ago. The theory was that since the numbers are drawn randomly, you are better off choosing less popular numbers in hope that you won't have to share the jackpot.
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I read an article that said players who fill out forms to select their numbers choose corner numbers less often.
 
luchog said:
I remember that particular problem from Psych class. Conditioning works better, and lasts longer, if you don't reward the desired behaviour every time.
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It's all becoming clear, now. I had wondered why the board sometimes doesn't accept my posts.
 
tsg said:
[1] For example, 1-2-3-4-5-6 and the winners from the previous game (this one is only effective if they're posted prominently at the machine).
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I often ask other people for numbers and then actually play them.
 
The lottery is just a fantasy that many people enjoying entertaining. I think serious players are slightly delusional, but regular folks like have the "what if" fantasy and the lottery gives them a chance to do that.
 
schplurg said:
I hate you people. I really do. No smilie here. If you see me waiting in line behind you, get the hell out of my way.
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HA! I'd stand in front of you and take my time on purpose. I would then converse with the cashier, loudly making fun of people who choose to leave 3 minutes before they're supposed to be at work and still get angry that everybody else isn't in a hurry for them.
 
KingMerv00 said:
Exactly. I don't play the lottery but people who do often pay for the fun of it. They get to daydream about what their life would be like with 315 million dollars.

If you expect to actually win, well you probably ain't bright.
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Good point. Daydreams are fun, but obviously pointless about the lottery unless you spend at least $1 to play. Either you have some chance or none.
 
EGarrett said:
I've played the Lottery before, and many people I know and like play the Lottery.

But anyway, from a skeptical point of view, is the lottery idiotic? And especially the way people play it?

There are people who buy lottery tickets when the Jackpot is extremely high, but as far as I know the odds change accordingly. And the worst thing is people who actually spend five dollars or something instead of 1, as though you're not just throwing away more money?
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The odds never change on winning any one entry. The numbers used are constant. The only thing that changes is the possibility that you may share with another winner and not get 100%, if a great many people play. Who cares?

If you play 5 number you have 5 times the chance of winning over 1 number. The odds are still low, but one is still 5 times more likely than the other. Only stupid if you can't afford it.
 
Lothian said:
I presume those above criticizing the lottery also eschew (voluntary) insurance.
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Except I have known two families to have lost fathers. One had insurance and the other didn't. One suffered horribly losing their home and car. The other suffered but the home was paid off and they kept the car. I have insurance. The lottery won't ensure that my family is taken care of if I die.
 
The lottery is fine for people who understand the odds and take it for what it is - silly fantasy fun. However, my best friend's mom (who could just barely make ends meet) used to try to supplement her income playing the lottery. She would buy every book published on how to choose winning numbers based on woo crap like astrology, dreams, prayer etc... She played the 3 number daily drawing as well as the large power ball. To be honest, she did win quite a few times from the daily numbers. But she wasted so much time and money on the books and prayers I'm sure it all evened out. Oh, and if she didn't win it was because God didn't want her to because she wasn't a good enough person. Needless to say she was pretty wacko. But it shows that the lottery can snowball into obsession and how woo predators can profit from it.
 
Mr. Scott said:
I tested this theory on my cat. She started to swat the bag of food right before I fed her, as I lowered it from atop the refrigerator. I thought it was neat and decided to encourage her. I fed her ONLY if she swatted the bag first. She continued to swat the bag, but with less and less enthusiasm as time went on until she barely touched it. Then I decided to try "random reinforcement" and fed her only sometimes after she swatted the bag. In a few days, she was frantically swatting it as hard as she could.
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I have reported you to PETA. Watch your back you cruel cruel person.
 
tsg said:
To which I usually respond "I only have .0001% less chance of winning than you do and I still have my dollar."
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Not correct I think. You have an infintely lesser chance of winning, but of course if you gain more pleasure from the dollar than the fantasy of wining, then you made the right choice.

Other than the compulsives, most people do this for fun. It's cheaper than beer.
 
Ladewig said:
I read an article that said players who fill out forms to select their numbers choose corner numbers less often.
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Maybe, but that doesn't change their odds of wining.


Originally Posted by schplurg :
I once saw a website that listed all the numbers available in the lottery, and the frequency that each number is chosen by players...no url, was a long time ago. The theory was that since the numbers are drawn randomly, you are better off choosing less popular numbers in hope that you won't have to share the jackpot.
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That much is true, but how many lotteries have you heard about that were shared by more than two winners? Would you be terribly unhappy if you won 20 million instead of the 40? Who cares?
 
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