Is the Lottery for fools?

Interesting Ian said:
No they are random. I don't know whether you're referring to normal football or American football, but let me talk about normal football.

We know that on average (mean) the respective number of times the home team wins is 45.7%, a draw 27.6% and an away win 26.6%. We also know the average score is 1.51 -- 1.11.

Now this means that given a sufficiently large number of diifferent teams all playing each other over a sufficiently large number of times, then the number of times there will be a home win, draw, away win will be 45.7% -- 27.6% -- 26.6% of the time with an average score of 1.51 -- 1.11.

But this is exactly the same as saying the chance of each of the numbers of a tossed dice coming up is 16.7% (i.e 1/6th).

Now for each match you can obtain the odds which the bookies reckon is the real chance of each of the respective teams winning and by how many goals (although you need to take into account their over-round). For example the bookies reckon that tonight's match between QPR and Coventry is 44.5% -- 29.1% -- 26.5%. But this may not be the true probability, but merely the bookies estimation of the true probability. People like the guy you know might be able to estimate the true probability more closely than the bookies. Maybe the true probability is 50 -- 30 -- 20. But whatever, it is still a random event.
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No, it is not truly random. You're ignoring the fact that all teams are not exactly alike. Which team wins is to some extent determined by the skill of the teams involved, which players are unavailable, and similar factors (I'm getting a feeling of deja vu here; have we had this argument before?). To beat the bookie you have to be able to spot matches where the bookie hasn't set the odds right.
Yes it is possible. It is what I have been attempting to do by betting on correct scores in the England premiership since the start of this season. I'm down by £4.26 having bet £1128.31 which have lost, and £1124.05 which have won (of course without the commission I would be £51 up). So it's not working so far although it seems to me I have, on occasions, been extraordinarily unlucky. I was thinking about starting to bet on the asian handicap in football as well as there is only 1% taken in commission.
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Actually, that's pretty good going.
But I digress. Let's suppose for the sake of argument that the bookies always accurately gives the correct probability. Thus in the bookies you would necessarily lose in the long run.

But this is not necessarily so in a betting exchange such as betfair. It's p2p betting. The guys who run the site simply take a 5% cut of all winnings. Particular individuals can put up odds which someone else can accept. Lets say you want to back an outcome as opposed to laying it. You can ensure a profit by only putting up odds whcih exceed the true odds. If another punter accepts those odds then in the long run you are guaranteed a profit. Of course it might the case that no one will accept your odds.
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This is precisely what goes on if you're betting in a bookies as well. If you're doing it seriously, and if you are going to make a profit, or even break even, you need to look at the odds quoted and decide whether the bet is worth making.
 
I once saw a website that listed all the numbers available in the lottery, and the frequency that each number is chosen by players...no url, was a long time ago. The theory was that since the numbers are drawn randomly, you are better off choosing less popular numbers in hope that you won't have to share the jackpot.

I don't play the lottery and I must say that I HATE waiting in line at the gas station for these &$%#! for brains to buy lottery tickets while I'm trying to get to work on time! What is this, a casino?!

"Oh I'll take 3 Golden Fortune scratchers, 7 Lucky Bingo Cards, wait make that 8 of those. Then I'll take 14 'You Must Be Stupids'......Oh and can I cash in these winning tickets too?"

I hate you people. I really do. No smilie here. If you see me waiting in line behind you, get the hell out of my way.
 
Mojo said:
No, it is not truly random. You're ignoring the fact that all teams are not exactly alike. Which team wins is to some extent determined by the skill of the teams involved, which players are unavailable, and similar factors (I'm getting a feeling of deja vu here; have we had this argument before?).
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Such factors determine the respective percentage probabilities of home win, draw or away win. It does not make it any less random. You might as well argue that tossing a coin is not random since we can assign a precise percentage probability -- namely 50% chance -- of either a heads or tails coming up.

Actually, that's pretty good going.
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I'm using a poisson distribution. That accurately models infrequent random events such as goals in football matches. Almost all my bets were from £2 to £4.
 
You CAN be deemed intelligent for playing the lottery if this is the definition of intelligence:

Intelligence (n.):
1. Something you are deemed to possess if a decision you make results in a positive outcome. Therefore, if you throw yourself in front of a train, and somehow gain great advantage from that action, you will be deemed intelligent for having done so.

AND

you WIN the lottery (or achieve some other positive outcome).

Therefore, by any definition I can think of, if you take a risk with less than optimal expected outcome and fail to achieve a relative positive result (e.g. play the lottery and lose), then you are not intelligent.
 
schplurg said:
I don't play the lottery and I must say that I HATE waiting in line at the gas station for these &$%#! for brains to buy lottery tickets while I'm trying to get to work on time! What is this, a casino?!
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Can you not buy the tickets online? You have been able to for 2 - 3 years for the UK national lottery. Much better because they email you if you win so you don't have to bother checking your tickets.
 
petre said:
you WIN the lottery (or achieve some other positive outcome).

Therefore, by any definition I can think of, if you take a risk with less than optimal expected outcome and fail to achieve a relative positive result (e.g. play the lottery and lose), then you are not intelligent.
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Okay, but if the person gets some enjoyment from the hope that they might win, then they have acheived a positive outcome.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Okay, but if the person gets some enjoyment from the hope that they might win, then they have acheived a positive outcome.
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Quite agreed. Or if you meet the love of your life while waiting in line to buy a ticket. Or, if you survive a meteor striking your car because you were waiting for the lotto numbers before leaving for dinner :)

Personally, I use a different word than "intelligence" for the event of achieving an unlikely positive result as a result of an ill-advised action. The term "luck" works just fine for me there :)

Of course, if you KNEW you'd have fun buying that ticket, the it wouldn't be an "unlikely" result at all! I like those kinds of people, because they support my industry without harming themselves :)
 
petre said:
Of course, if you KNEW you'd have fun buying that ticket, the it wouldn't be an "unlikely" result at all! I like those kinds of people, because they support my industry without harming themselves :)
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Hell. Those kinds of people are why I have no state income tax to pay.:p
 
tsg said:
Even if it's a false hope?
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It's not a false hope. Granted it is a one in several million chance but the chance is there nonetheless. As long as they realize that, if they get enjoyment from it, it's no worse than blowing the same money on a movie ticket.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
It's not a false hope. Granted it is a one in several million chance but the chance is there nonetheless. As long as they realize that, if they get enjoyment from it, it's no worse than blowing the same money on a movie ticket.
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This doesn't sit well with me. It basically justifies spending your money on anything as long as you get enjoyment out of it.

Granted, that's well enough...but that still doesn't mean the lottery does more good than harm. And people can pay $1 to have their driver's license stolen if they enjoy it...you can basically let any type of scam off the hook that way. Not a good reason to me at all...
 
EGarrett said:
This doesn't sit well with me. It basically justifies spending your money on anything as long as you get enjoyment out of it.

Granted, that's well enough...but that still doesn't mean the lottery does more good than harm. And people can pay $1 to have their driver's license stolen if they enjoy it...you can basically let any type of scam off the hook that way. Not a good reason to me at all...
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Are you unsatisified with the idea that a monetary transaction can take place without the garante of a utilitarian benefit? To borrow Nyralothtep's example, what utilitarian benefit do you derrive from watching a movie, or reading fiction?
 
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Nyarlathotep said:
It's not a false hope. Granted it is a one in several million chance but the chance is there nonetheless. As long as they realize that, if they get enjoyment from it, it's no worse than blowing the same money on a movie ticket.
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Agreed. But do they realize how little chance they really have of winning or are they more hopeful than they should be? If the enjoyment they derive is from a gross overestimation of the possibility of winning, would they get the same enjoyment if they really understood how little chance they actually have of winning?
 
tsg said:
Agreed. But do they realize how little chance they really have of winning or are they more hopeful than they should be? If the enjoyment they derive is from a gross overestimation of the possibility of winning, would they get the same enjoyment if they really understood how little chance they actually have of winning?
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Probably depends on the individual. Hoping something happens, and fantasizing about it, is not necessarily the same as expecting to happen.
 
EGarrett said:
This doesn't sit well with me. It basically justifies spending your money on anything as long as you get enjoyment out of it.

Granted, that's well enough...but that still doesn't mean the lottery does more good than harm. And people can pay $1 to have their driver's license stolen if they enjoy it...you can basically let any type of scam off the hook that way. Not a good reason to me at all...
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If its money they can afford to spend, then there is no problem with spending money on something merely to derive enjoyment from it.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Probably depends on the individual. Hoping something happens, and fantasizing about it, is not necessarily the same as expecting to happen.
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This is true, but they can hope or fantasize about unexpectedly falling into a lot of money without spending the dollar. What makes the lottery so much better?
 
tsg said:
This is true, but they can hope or fantasize about unexpectedly falling into a lot of money without spending the dollar. What makes the lottery so much better?
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Who knows. I don't play the lottery. People get a rush out of gambling. I don't know why, but they do. The lottery is just another form of gambling.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Who knows. I don't play the lottery. People get a rush out of gambling. I don't know why, but they do. The lottery is just another form of gambling.
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That doesn't make it a rational decision by itself, though. People generally gamble with an expectation to win.

The point I'm getting at is if the enjoyment they get from playing the lottery is based on an unreasonable expectation of winning, isn't that a false hope?
 
tsg said:
I agree. I get great entertainment value out of standing in line and ordering "1 2 3 4 5 6" just to hear people tell me that my numbers will never come up. My response is usually "and yours will?"
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"That's the stupidest combination I've ever heard! That's a combination some idiot would have on his luggage!"

I'll buy you a lottery ticket if you get the reference...
 
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