Major explosion in downtown Nashville

[Thermal]

Well sure, I can also make up some weak scenario with an ambiguous and unconfident statement about a vague suspicion and say "but, but, but". But that's not the kind of thing we're talking about here; we're talking about an ex-girlfriend stating, definitively, that she knows he is building bombs specifically inside a trailer on his property, and those statements being supported by an attorney who has represented the alleged bomb-builder, saying (essentially) "yes, I have often heard him talking about building bombs and am convinced he is absolutely capable of doing so". Police report

We are talking about building bombs here, and many of us are fully capable of doing so. Grounds for a search? I think not, unless we are making credible threats to use them. Girlfriend is shaky on the credibility front, and lawyer dude testifies to no more than what we are doing here. If lawyer dude actually saw explosives, different story, methinks. Just believing a guy can make them and chats about them is commonplace enough.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Try human and fallible.

Which in this case might have led them to dismiss the crazy woman.

I don't understand in this era of bombers that wouldn't have been enough just to get a warrant to look in the camper and maybe to check what he's bought in the last few months.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I suspect police get hundreds of tips like the one we are talking about, and its' just impossible to investigate every one of them.

What would have made it a credible tip? It was specific and despite the woman threatening suicide, and it was credible enough the cops reported it to the FBI.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

So how would police request a warrant, given the information they had? "Yo, check it out your Honor: crazy girlfriend who knows jack **** about bombs thinks here boyfriend is making them. Oh, and he's talking about the Army. So we can go shake the brother down, amirite?" We would need a massive police force to conduct searches on every such claim, and I'd rather judges not sign warrants on claims that flimsy. Police States are not desirable to some of us.

If there was a picture of his devices or a more uninvolved party making the accusations, then that's a different story. But with what the police had at the time, I think 'lack of support for a search warrant' was prob the right call. Well, not the right one, but the legal one at the time. In hindsight it sure sucks.

Look how you dismissed it based on "crazy" "girlfriend" and some degree of being ignorant.

And you seem to think crazy girlfriends make false claims all the time.

 

[Thermal]

Look how you dismissed it based on "crazy" "girlfriend" and some degree of being ignorant.

And you seem to think crazy girlfriends make false claims all the time.

Nah. Im putting a hyperbolic spin on how the cops or judge might view her. You could take a tip-off about the tone from saying police would start with "Yo check it out your Honor"

And come on: she was brought in for suicidal threats, and has a boyfriend she claims is a backyard bomb builder, who turns out to be actually suicidal and blows up streets. I think 'crazy' is factoring into the equation here.

Eta: ignorance: unless she turns out to have credible explosives experience, it's a safe bet she knows somewhere between little and nothing about IEDs. If you were to go into my workshop/Lab, you might think I was a bomb maker too, because I play with electronics and light pyrotechnics for Halloween stuff.

Her being a woman has nothing to do with anything. If he instead had a boyfriend, I'd put it the same way

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Which in this case might have led them to dismiss the crazy woman.
I don't understand in this era of bombers that wouldn't have been enough just to get a warrant to look in the camper and maybe to check what he's bought in the last few months.

Given the well documented trend of cops not really giving a **** about domestic violence issues, it's not shocking they would sooner believe the ex girlfriend to be hysterical than actually telling the truth about a dangerous man.

Compare this to the regular practice of squeezing drug addicts to name names as "confidential informants" as a predicate for no-knock drug raids, it's laughable to even suggest that these cops could not have gotten a search warrant given the very specific information the ex-girlfriend was providing.

It should be restated how much of a close call this was. The explosion was quite powerful, and easily could have been a mass casualty event had the bomber intended it. We are very fortunate that the bomber went out of his way to minimize injuring people.

 

[Checkmite]

We are talking about building bombs here, and many of us are fully capable of doing so.

But none of us are accused of doing so or having a habit of talking about doing so by close associates who are in a position to know if we were.

 

[Thermal]

But none of us are accused of doing so or having a habit of talking about doing so by close associates who are in a position to know if we were.

Nor are police trying or expected to get warrants on us. The point is that having knowledge and discussion is pretty weak T for a judge's signing a warrant, which is all the lawyer offered. The presumably suicidal gf who is hooked up with what she evidently believes is some kind of budding terrorist is hardly a great tipster. Although they didn't think she was lying, they also had no externally verifiable reason to think she knew what she was talking about. This could put the police in the awkward position of having suspicion enough to investigate, but not likely enough to convince a judge.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Nor are police trying or expected to get warrants on us. The point is that having knowledge and discussion is pretty weak T for a judge's signing a warrant, which is all the lawyer offered. The presumably suicidal gf who is hooked up with what she evidently believes is some kind of budding terrorist is hardly a great tipster. Although they didn't think she was lying, they also had no externally verifiable reason to think she knew what she was talking about. This could put the police in the awkward position of having suspicion enough to investigate, but not likely enough to convince a judge.

Warrants are signed everyday based on the word of far less credible informants.

This isn't even close to a grey zone to my eye. If the cops wanted to search, a judge would have given them a warrant.

The simplest explanation is that the cops were lazy. The guy didn't answer the door when they knocked, and that was all the effort they were willing to put into this.

 

[TJM]

Which in this case might have led them to dismiss the crazy woman.

Yep. That's how I read it.

"There there Hon, now don't you worry your pretty little head about that!" Come with us and we'll get you a nice cup of tea and a midol. Fix ya right up!"

 

[Thermal]

Warrants are signed everyday based on the word of far less credible informants.

And they damned sure shouldn't.

This isn't even close to a grey zone to my eye. If the cops wanted to search, a judge would have given them a warrant.

You have a lot more faith in the goodness of police than I have. My personal experience leads me to conclude they need their powers reigned in, not expanded.

The simplest explanation is that the cops were lazy. The guy didn't answer the door when they knocked, and that was all the effort they were willing to put into this.

The simplest explanation doesn't interest me. The most likely does. The most likely seems to be what they said, although they may have been able to push for more leash. Just remember how badly things can demonstrably go in the other direction when you give them more power.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

And they damned sure shouldn't.



You have a lot more faith in the goodness of police than I have. My personal experience leads me to conclude they need their powers reigned in, not expanded.



The simplest explanation doesn't interest me. The most likely does. The most likely seems to be what they said, although they may have been able to push for more leash. Just remember how badly things can demonstrably go in the other direction when you give them more power.

That's the point that many of the more recent critiques of police have been making.

For all the money we spend on our very aggressive police force, they aren't actually that good at solving cases. They are second to none when it comes to beating some noncompliant petty offender into a pulp or gunning down someone having a mental health crisis, but solving cases, like our homebrew bomb builder, is beyond their grasp. Their priorities are absurd.

The girlfriend should have told the cops he had heroin in the RV. Probably would have had a warrant in an hour.

 

[Thermal]

That's the point that many of the more recent critiques of police have been making.

For all the money we spend on our very aggressive police force, they aren't actually that good at solving cases. They are second to none when it comes to beating some noncompliant petty offender into a pulp or gunning down someone having a mental health crisis, but solving cases, like our homebrew bomb builder, is beyond their grasp. Their priorities are absurd.

The girlfriend should have told the cops he had heroin in the RV. Probably would have had a warrant in an hour.

Agreed entirely.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

They had two witnesses linking AQW to bomb making. The lawyer corroborated the girlfriends info.

Ignore me if you've already posted it, but do you have a link for this second witness? And if you mean the lawyer, I don't think the lawyer confirmed that he was actually making bombs, only that he talked about it.

 

[Meadmaker]

We are talking about building bombs here, and many of us are fully capable of doing so.

I think building bombs is illegal, even if you don't use them. It seems to me like a search warrant ought to have been obtainable. My guess is that they saw a woman with guns sitting on her porch talking about suicide and saying that her boyfriend is crazy and building bombs, and didn't take her report seriously.

But I'm not a cop or a lawyer

 

[marting]

I think building bombs is illegal, even if you don't use them. It seems to me like a search warrant ought to have been obtainable. My guess is that they saw a woman with guns sitting on her porch talking about suicide and saying that her boyfriend is crazy and building bombs, and didn't take her report seriously.

But I'm not a cop or a lawyer

Yeah. Credibility was the problem. They did investigate what they knew. To get a warrant they would need probable cause and the girlfriend was not very credible, unfortunately. It's unlikely a judge, presented the known facts, would issue a search warrant.

Growing up I had a neighbor that regularly called the cops saying we were making bombs or something. She also said aliens were landing in our backyard. Cops have to make a call. They won't always get it right. But probable cause requires "probable," not possible. In this case it turns out they judged wrong. But what is the criteria? A 20% chance the girlfriend is right isn't probable.

Perhaps there needs to be some sort of weighted estimate. The danger associated with a 5% chance where the consequences are some mass casualty event is a lot different from a 51% chance of some typical criminal activity. But that's not the way the law works.

 

[Thermal]

I think building bombs is illegal, even if you don't use them. It seems to me like a search warrant ought to have been obtainable. My guess is that they saw a woman with guns sitting on her porch talking about suicide and saying that her boyfriend is crazy and building bombs, and didn't take her report seriously.

But I'm not a cop or a lawyer

Lol

Honestly though, pretty close, I'd guess. Maybe a little closer to 'put these guys in the pile of nuts to keep an eye on but we don't have enough ink, paper or manpower to sign warrants for. They don't appear to be killing anyone this week'

 

[Thermal]

Yeah. Credibility was the problem. They did investigate what they knew. To get a warrant they would need probable cause and the girlfriend was not very credible, unfortunately. It's unlikely a judge, presented the known facts, would issue a search warrant.

Growing up I had a neighbor that regularly called the cops saying we were making bombs or something. She also said aliens were landing in our backyard. Cops have to make a call. They won't always get it right. But probable cause requires "probable," not possible. In this case it turns out they judged wrong. But what is the criteria? A 20% chance the girlfriend is right isn't probable.

Perhaps there needs to be some sort of weighted estimate. The danger associated with a 5% chance where the consequences are some mass casualty event is a lot different from a 51% chance of some typical criminal activity. But that's not the way the law works.

Just issue each patrolman a graduate student in Baysean statistics. Holster mounted, if practical. It's like I have to teach these guys everything.

 

[rockinkt]

Warrants are signed everyday based on the word of far less credible informants.

This isn't even close to a grey zone to my eye. If the cops wanted to search, a judge would have given them a warrant.

The simplest explanation is that the cops were lazy. The guy didn't answer the door when they knocked, and that was all the effort they were willing to put into this.

Very well stated. There should have been a follow up and if the subject did not answer the door again that indication of paranoia or anti-social behaviour along with the statement from the girlfriend would have most likely been enough to get a search warrant.
Policing is a job where lazy people can find refuge and it shows far too often.

 

[whoanellie]

Ignore me if you've already posted it, but do you have a link for this second witness? And if you mean the lawyer, I don't think the lawyer confirmed that he was actually making bombs, only that he talked about it.

Yes. My post was poorly worded in that respect. My point was that based on the little we know of what actually occurred it seems that the lawyer did give some corroboration to what the girlfriend was saying.