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Is the Lottery for fools?

EGarrett

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E
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Feb 24, 2004
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I've played the Lottery before, and many people I know and like play the Lottery.

But anyway, from a skeptical point of view, is the lottery idiotic? And especially the way people play it?

There are people who buy lottery tickets when the Jackpot is extremely high, but as far as I know the odds change accordingly. And the worst thing is people who actually spend five dollars or something instead of 1, as though you're not just throwing away more money?

And wha tkind of arguments do you prefer to use to discourage this? My favorite one is pointing out that, with a 200 million dollar Powerball jackpot, even if you bought TWO MILLION tickets and spent TWO MILLION DOLLARS, the chances are still 99% that you're going to lose.

Also, is this irresponsible of the government, to take advantage of their citizens this way? What do you think?
 
No, playing the lotto is not iditotic. It's a calculated risk.

If I make $30,000 every year, spending $1 a week on lotto tickets represents only $52 dollars, or 0.17% of my annual income. That's chump change. Even if I blow $5 per week on lotto tickets, that's still less than 1% of my income. Over, say, 40 years, that's $2080 spent on lotto tickets, or more than a $10,000 if I spend $5 weekly.

The question I have to ask myself is "Do you feel lucky punk. Well, do ya?" Actually, the question I have to ask myself is "Is this relatively small expense with a very tiny expectation of reward worth it?" Maybe. Spending $1-$5 doesn't have a very significant impact on my quality of life. On the tiny chance that I win millions of dollars, my life would be dramatically improved.

To many people, the small chance of improving their lives is worth the almost certainty of spending a few bucks every week for nothing. As long as people know the risks, and don't overburden themselves playing the game, it's really in their interest to play.
 
It's all about your expected return. If a lotto has a $10 million jackpot and a 1 in 50 million chance of winning, then your expected return on every $1 ticket is $10M * 1/50M = 20 cents. So if you played billions of rounds then you'd win roughly 20c for every round you played. In that case you're wasting your time.

If there's a rollover however, and the jackpot is $100M, then your expected return is $2, so in theory at least you'd make a dollar for every dollar spent.

Of course you have to play a huge number of games for the theory to become realilty, and I'm ignoring lots of other subtle factors, but in general if you only bet when the expected return is higher than the outlay then you're not actually being stupid.
 
I look at the question differently e.g. do you get some value from your money? If for instance you enjoy the anticipation on a the draw night or it just adds a bit of spice into your life it is no more waste of money then any other entertainmentt.
 
EGarrett said:
And wha tkind of arguments do you prefer to use to discourage this? My favorite one is pointing out that, with a 200 million dollar Powerball jackpot, even if you bought TWO MILLION tickets and spent TWO MILLION DOLLARS, the chances are still 99% that you're going to lose.
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Another way to say it is that even if you spend every dollar you earn in your lifetime on lottery tickets, you will still probably never win the jackpot (true for most people). But I still buy a lotto ticket occasionally. At least this puts you in the running so you have a little excitement knowing there is a chance of winning. As ImaginalDisc said, the financial impact is negligible.
EGarrett said:
Also, is this irresponsible of the government, to take advantage of their citizens this way? What do you think?
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As long as it doesn't misrepresent the odds, I'm OK with it. I do wish they would show the odds and disclaimer more prominently on the TV ads. What gets me is the hypocrisy of most states outlawing gambling except the lottery. "No casinos allowed! They would interfere with our gambling monopoly... err I mean because they would take people's hard-earned money. It's for your own protection. And umm... buy lottery tickets!"
 
Darat said:
I look at the question differently e.g. do you get some value from your money? If for instance you enjoy the anticipation on a the draw night or it just adds a bit of spice into your life it is no more waste of money then any other entertainmentt.
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Exactly. I don't play the lottery but people who do often pay for the fun of it. They get to daydream about what their life would be like with 315 million dollars.

If you expect to actually win, well you probably ain't bright.
 
Playing the lottery is a classic woo activity.

As an investment, its lousy - the expected return is less than the amount invested.

As entertainment, it may have value - how much depends on how much you believe in luck, how much you are able to suspend disbelief, how much you get out of financial porn.

If buying a lottery ticket for a few bucks gives you a thrill that can last for days until you lose, have fun. The antici... ... ... pation may be worth it, for you.

The same argument doesn't work for pull-tabs, though - can't believe the few seconds of excitement is worth the money.

I have enough common sense to determine that the lottery is a bad investment. I don't believe in luck. I get no pleasure waiting to learn that my hard-earned money has been lost.

The lottery has nothing to offer me.
 
The lottery itself isn't idiotic, playing it isn't all that idiotic either. However, some people are idiotic about how they play, spending much needed income in hopes of winning.
 
There are smaller payouts than the jackpot. I think the odds of winning something on your money are something like 1 in 36, maybe better... I bought $10 in tickets during the last big runup and won $3, that's probably typical... Of course, most people roll their winnings back into buying more tickets, and only remember the "wins" and not the net loss...

If I had a complaint it is that the Lotto is a kind of flat voluntary tax that disproportionately targets the poor. It's not that big a deal for me to throw away $10 if there's a $300 million jackpot, but a family just making ends meet is likely to see it as a way out and can less afford the foolishness of it. (Much of the Powerball proceeds go to various public works).
I suppose in the final reel we are adults and supposed to make responsible decisions, but it does not always work that way when people are desperate.
 
ImaginalDisk - Have to disagree.

The fact that it is possible to win the lottery doesn't mean that playing the lottery is not a woo activity.

If you don't believe in luck (woo concept), I hope you'll agree that the expected return from playing the lottery is less than the investment. Someone buying lottery tickets as an investment is either a woo or a fool.

If you buy lottery tickets for entertainment, there's a small part of you that believes in luck (woo concept), that you've got a real chance of winning, and that gets excited over this. Someone buying lottery tickets for entertainment is either a woo or a fool.
 
Complexity said:
ImaginalDisk - Have to disagree.

The fact that it is possible to win the lottery doesn't mean that playing the lottery is not a woo activity.

If you don't believe in luck (woo concept), I hope you'll agree that the expected return from playing the lottery is less than the investment. Someone buying lottery tickets as an investment is either a woo or a fool.

If you buy lottery tickets for entertainment, there's a small part of you that believes in luck (woo concept), that you've got a real chance of winning, and that gets excited over this. Someone buying lottery tickets for entertainment is either a woo or a fool.
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It's a calculated risk. I'm willing to pay the equivlent cost of a cup o' joe in the morning every week to gamble against astounding odds. I'm willing to particpate in society against the long odds that things will turn out alright. I'm willing to buckle my seatbelt even though, broadly speaking, that does nothing for my risk of dying by heart attack, lung cancer, murder or a violent allergic reaction to an over the counter decongestant.

I'm prefectly aware of the risks. I'm perfectly aware of the cost, which is frankly quite small. I will have spent less money on lotto tickets after 40 years of playing than I would have spent on coffee. Far less actually. Buying coffee is not a woo activity either.
 
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Whether its idiotic or not depends on your situation. If you have a couple of spare dollars to blow and you find the thrill of the minute chance you might actually win something to be worth the money, then it's no more idiotic than spending that same money on tickets to the movie or on a nice meal. If you consider it an investment of sorts, and are buying the tickets more because you truly expect to win, rather than for the entertainment you get from HOPING you might win, THEN its idiotic. If you are blowing the rent money on lottery tickets then you are a complete and utter fool and idiotic isn't a strong enough word.
 
Complexity said:
If you buy lottery tickets for entertainment, there's a small part of you that believes in luck (woo concept), that you've got a real chance of winning, and that gets excited over this.
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I disagree. I don't think you need to believe in luck at all to obtain entertainment value from playing the lottery.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Whether its idiotic or not depends on your situation. If you have a couple of spare dollars to blow and you find the thrill of the minute chance you might actually win something to be worth the money, then it's no more idiotic than spending that same money on tickets to the movie or on a nice meal. If you consider it an investment of sorts, and are buying the tickets more because you truly expect to win, rather than for the entertainment you get from HOPING you might win, THEN its idiotic. If you are blowing the rent money on lottery tickets then you are a complete and utter fool and idiotic isn't a strong enough word.
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Agreed. Playing a game you cannot afford to lose is never wise.
 
Complexity said:
If you buy lottery tickets for entertainment, there's a small part of you that believes in luck (woo concept), that you've got a real chance of winning, and that gets excited over this. Someone buying lottery tickets for entertainment is either a woo or a fool.
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Not necessarily. There IS a tiny, but demonstrable, chance that you will win. If you are entertained by taking that chance it doesn't mean you are woo, it just means that you find gambling to be fun. If you beleive you can somehow improve the odds, THEN you are a woo.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Whether its idiotic or not depends on your situation. If you have a couple of spare dollars to blow and you find the thrill of the minute chance you might actually win something to be worth the money, then it's no more idiotic than spending that same money on tickets to the movie or on a nice meal. If you consider it an investment of sorts, and are buying the tickets more because you truly expect to win, rather than for the entertainment you get from HOPING you might win, THEN its idiotic. If you are blowing the rent money on lottery tickets then you are a complete and utter fool and idiotic isn't a strong enough word.
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You've pegged my opinion as well. Although I always laugh at Bill Nye's comment: "I like to think of it as a tax on people that are bad at math."
 
gnome said:
You've pegged my opinion as well. Although I always laugh at Bill Nye's comment: "I like to think of it as a tax on people that are bad at math."
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::nod:: Playing the lotto with everything you have is a get-poor-quick sheme.
 
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