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Cancel student loan debt?

Sure. In addition to dealing with the current load of student debt, proactive action should be taken to ensure that future students need not borrow so much to receive higher education.

That likely means, among other measures, reducing how much of higher education is paid by tuition. A return to prior eras where state run institutions rely much more heavily on state support, paid by higher taxes, is probably the best bet. A return to the era when students could pay their tuition working part time and summer jobs, or quickly upon graduation, even at minimum or near minimum wage.

There's no way out prestige. It's socialism all the way down. ;)

I'd angle more for having the schools be subsidized by government funds, in order to reduce tuition to a manageable level, and leverage scholarships and grants to address low-income students. Maybe some student loans available in particular situations. But I would tie it to clearly measurable job-placement metrics, and make the schools share the risk. If job-placement falls below a certain threshold, the school's subsidy gets reduced. If it exceeds that threshold, the subsidy increases.

ETA: The educational equivalent of an outcome-based provider risk-sharing arrangement :)
 
Yes, from an individual level it seems unfair.

I just don't want to hear any crying when people saddled with this debt make reasonable decisions in their position. Say by not having children, or not buying homes, or massively curtailing consumer spending.

How much home buying and massive consumer spending were we actually expecting from people working dead-end jobs at such low wages that they can't even afford an income-based repayment plan or a repayment deferral?

I mean, is this really the logic behind the policy proposal? We're going to write off this money we wasted that you can't afford to repay, so that you can go ahead and get a home loan that you also can't afford to repay for the same reasons you couldn't afford to repay your education loan? I get wanting economic growth, but you seem to be looking for another economic bubble. Do you want another economic bubble?
 
What would constitute evidence? Unemployment rates among college grads? Theres a lot of factors there. Relative value to the individual (as in higher education being it's own reward)? In terms of investment, do you mean income over time as compared to blue collar work? A lot of college kids simply couldn't do blue collar work effectively, so any income they made would be better than nothing, so a good investment.

Any study that identifies a meaningful difference in favor of non-college educated vs college educated. Economically is most preferable as it relates to this discussion but I don't really see much of anything. Would be helpful to have a baseline in the discussion of the actual negative aspects, since the talk of paying back a loan has been exaggerated quite a bit.
 
By this logic, wouldn't it be beneficial to the economy generally to bail out ALL debt? Cancel all mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt, etc. Why wouldn't this be an even better idea?
Indeed it would help those who are in debt. But:

1. The government doesn't control those debts. Various other lenders do. And only the lender can choose to forgive a debt. We're talking about a government policy with the government's own loans here. It can choose this policy for itself, but imposing it on various private lenders is separate issue that's really not within the realm of possibility for this country, or most people's idea of what reasonably should be possible.

2. The government not only has the choice to do this for itself but not to compel other lenders to, but also has a responsibility to "the general welfare" which those other lenders don't share.

3. In at least one of those cases--mortgages--governments have essentially ordered lenders to forgive or partially forgive loans before. The "housing crisis" was caused by people borrowing and then not being able to pay, and part of the response was to require the lenders to let non-payers keep their houses anyway, depending on circumstances. And, although I can't think of a case in which the same kind of thing has happened with auto loans, the fact that auto loans have such a tendency to get borrowers in trouble they can't handle has also led to a common public view of auto loan lenders as criminals at least in essence/spirit if not in technicality, so a lot of people certainly would agree that doing something about those would be good too. Also, consider the fact that a bank deposit is a loan from the depositor to the bank, which means the FDIC's deposit guarantee is essentially a partial forgiveness program for loans/deposits larger than the guarantee's limit. So the concept that loans are a burden that people would be better off without is not at all unthinkable or unprecedented in the world of private business loans, as you seem to think; it's more like an uncontroversial fact.

4. The scale of what the borrowers have borrowed and what they've gotten for those loans is far off. The amount of money that's involved is normally larger than just about any other loan a person can get. And with the other kinds of loan you're talking about, the borrower already got what (s)he borrowed for. Borrow for a vehicle, and you get the vehicle first and start paying later. Buy a can of paint with a credit card, and you get the paint first and pay the credit card balance later. But what gets college graduates in trouble is that they often did not get what they were told they were supposed to get for it. In private loan world, this would be called fraud, which can indeed be a cause for partial or total forgiveness/compensation.

5. The scale is far off, not only in what the borrower gets, but also in what the lender would lose. Most private banks & credit unions & other loan businesses, if the loans they had already paid out were cancelled, would immediately lose more than the value of their entire companies. For the Federal government, on the other hand, the lost income from student loan forgiveness would be like the amount of skin cells you lose by scratching an itch. The total of all student loan balances that are still out from all the loans that have been made over the years is literally a fraction of not just the whole annual Federal budget, or even just the Defense Department's annual budget, but the increase from one year to the next that the politicians who say we can't afford this keep routinely voting for in the Defense Department's budget. So the harm that would be inflicted by universal private loan forgiveness simply doesn't exist at all in context of Federal student loans.
 
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Indeed it would help those who are in debt. But:

1. The government doesn't control those debts. Various other lenders do. And only the lender can choose to forgive a debt. We're talking about a government policy with the government's own loans here. It can choose this policy for itself, but imposing it on various private lenders is separate issue that's really not within the realm of possibility for this country, or most people's idea of what reasonably should be possible.

If canceling debt really is such an engine of economic growth, then I think proponents could - and should! - be making a strong case for eminent domain takeover of private loans for that purpose. Even if you'd have to pay off all the private lenders, the increased revenues from the resulting economic activity would... more than cover it? Yes?
 
How much home buying and massive consumer spending were we actually expecting from people working dead-end jobs at such low wages that they can't even afford an income-based repayment plan or a repayment deferral?

I mean, is this really the logic behind the policy proposal? We're going to write off this money we wasted that you can't afford to repay, so that you can go ahead and get a home loan that you also can't afford to repay for the same reasons you couldn't afford to repay your education loan? I get wanting economic growth, but you seem to be looking for another economic bubble. Do you want another economic bubble?

That assumes the people forecasting economic boom are expecting it from those that they publicly describe as the ones they want to target. The un-employed, under-employed, people with unfinished degrees or who owe less than 10k. Who they are actually talking about are the ones that hold 60% of the overall debt and earn the top 40% of incomes in the country.

If we want to be honest about who to target, let's just target those with a certain level of debt. At a 10k loan forgiveness cutoff (only those owing tht or less), you would help 16.3 million borrowers (35.8% of total) at a total cost of.. $78.5 billion (5.4% of total outstanding loans). 66% of all loan defaults are from within this group. I think you could get a lot more people on board with that.

Feeling generous? Knock it up to those with 20k or less in debt. Now you're hitting an additional 9.3 million borrowers raising it to 56.2% of all borrowers. Total cost $214.1 billion. Know what percentage of those that default have 20k or less debt? 84%. We've now solved the student loan crisis. Moral hazard aside, that makes a lot more sense to me.
 
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How much home buying and massive consumer spending were we actually expecting from people working dead-end jobs at such low wages that they can't even afford an income-based repayment plan or a repayment deferral?

I mean, is this really the logic behind the policy proposal? We're going to write off this money we wasted that you can't afford to repay, so that you can go ahead and get a home loan that you also can't afford to repay for the same reasons you couldn't afford to repay your education loan? I get wanting economic growth, but you seem to be looking for another economic bubble. Do you want another economic bubble?

That's how the issue has generally been framed. Who knows how true it is, but the claim that student debt is generally dragging the broader economy down has been made. At least, that seems to be a huge motivating factor in these discussions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2018/11/08/how-student-debt-is-destroying-the-economy-and-how-we-can-stop-it-in-its-tracks/?sh=6837c27e6619

I know it's easy to imagine the starbucks barista with 6 figure debt as the poster child for this, but the problem of student debt extends well beyond MFAs working minimum wage jobs. For many in debt, going to college was still the right choice and leads to better paying jobs. People who might be on track to pay back their loans in their 40's may be in a better position than those not having gone to college, but that loan burden will still hamper their ability to participate in the economy in ways that are generally seen as important, such as buying homes. That's kinda the point there, that large segments of the population making a good choice is still creating major issues for our economy.

The forbes article points out that those servicing student debt may be doing so at the cost of not funding 401k plans, especially early on in their working life. With the lost compounding interest, this delay in funding retirement is severe, and many of these people may end up relying on government services in retirement.
 
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The forbes article points out that those servicing student debt may be doing so at the cost of not funding 401k plans, especially early on in their working life. With the lost compounding interest, this delay in funding retirement is severe, and many of these people may end up relying on government services in retirement.


[ahem]A delay in investment is lost returns, yes, but not from compound interest.[/ahem]
 
That's how the issue has generally been framed. Who knows how true it is, but the claim that student debt is generally dragging the broader economy down has been made. At least, that seems to be a huge motivating factor in these discussions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2018/11/08/how-student-debt-is-destroying-the-economy-and-how-we-can-stop-it-in-its-tracks/?sh=6837c27e6619

I know it's easy to imagine the starbucks barista with 6 figure debt as the poster child for this, but the problem of student debt extends well beyond MFAs working minimum wage jobs. For many in debt, going to college was still the right choice and leads to better paying jobs. People who might be on track to pay back their loans in their 40's may be in a better position than those not having gone to college, but that loan burden will still hamper their ability to participate in the economy in ways that are generally seen as important, such as buying homes. That's kinda the point there, that large segments of the population making a good choice is still creating major issues for our economy.

The forbes article points out that those servicing student debt may be doing so at the cost of not funding 401k plans, especially early on in their working life. With the lost compounding interest, this delay in funding retirement is severe, and many of these people may end up relying on government services in retirement.
The average student debt carried by new Grads is roughtly 40k. About the average price of a new car. Forgiving car debt would at least be a more progressive policy. Still a bad idea full of moral hazard.

In economics, moral hazard occurs when an entity has an incentive to increase its exposure to risk because it does not bear the full costs of that risk.
Forgiving debt just encourages people to continue making bad educational choices.

Frankly, they only reason we're talking about student loan forgiveness, is because it impacts the political connected upper middle class.
 
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The average student debt carried by new Grads is roughtly 40k. About the average price of a new car. Forgiving car debt would at least be a more progressive policy. Still a bad idea full of moral hazard.

Forgiving debt just encourages people to continue making bad educational choices.

I agree that forgiving debt, without actually addressing the root cause of runaway tuition costs, would be just kicking the can down the road (and not even that far).

We're talking hypotheticals here. I personally very much doubt anything at all will be done anytime soon.
 
That's how the issue has generally been framed. Who knows how true it is, but the claim that student debt is generally dragging the broader economy down has been made. At least, that seems to be a huge motivating factor in these discussions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2018/11/08/how-student-debt-is-destroying-the-economy-and-how-we-can-stop-it-in-its-tracks/?sh=6837c27e6619

I know it's easy to imagine the starbucks barista with 6 figure debt as the poster child for this, but the problem of student debt extends well beyond MFAs working minimum wage jobs. For many in debt, going to college was still the right choice and leads to better paying jobs. People who might be on track to pay back their loans in their 40's may be in a better position than those not having gone to college, but that loan burden will still hamper their ability to participate in the economy in ways that are generally seen as important, such as buying homes. That's kinda the point there, that large segments of the population making a good choice is still creating major issues for our economy.

The forbes article points out that those servicing student debt may be doing so at the cost of not funding 401k plans, especially early on in their working life. With the lost compounding interest, this delay in funding retirement is severe, and many of these people may end up relying on government services in retirement.
This is definitely true. We didn't get started on retirement savings until relatively recently. By the time my wife graduated, we had over $150k in student loans with my undergrad loans (which I never finished) and my wife's much more substantial Medical School loans. With interest, it feels like we've hardly made a dent. We are still paying that off and probably will until we die. About 15 years ago, we chose a different route -put the student loans on the back-burner, pay the minimum, take advantage of forebearance, etc. and start building our lives. We bought a house, we started agressive retirement savings -basically did all the things we should have done much earlier but couldn't because student loans seemed to tower over us.

I think for people like us, the debt is manageable. But for people with lower incomes than us, it's completely unmanageable. That's why I'm not opposed to some limited forgiveness for nurses, teachers and other "essential" services if their incomes are below the managibility threshhold. But hell, I'll take blanket forgiveness!
 
People who might be on track to pay back their loans in their 40's may be in a better position than those not having gone to college, but that loan burden will still hamper their ability to participate in the economy in ways that are generally seen as important, such as buying homes.

Then we need to rethink the entire premise of government-backed student loans. The whole point of this arrangement was to improve people's ability to participate in the economy.
 
We're talking hypotheticals here. I personally very much doubt anything at all will be done anytime soon.

Bringing it back around to the OP: The proposal is for President Biden to forgive student loan debt via executive order (to whatever extent possible under his constitutional authority).

It sounds like you're saying you doubt he's going to do something like that in the next four years.

Not a challenge or a gotcha; just linking the current state of play back to the OP topic.
 
Bringing it back around to the OP: The proposal is for President Biden to forgive student loan debt via executive order (to whatever extent possible under his constitutional authority).

It sounds like you're saying you doubt he's going to do something like that in the next four years.

Not a challenge or a gotcha; just linking the current state of play back to the OP topic.

Yes, that's pretty much my stance. I very much doubt that this is something Biden is committed to. I doubt this is even close to being high enough priority to actually see political capital being spent to make it happen. Republican cooperation is a non starter, and I would guess there's significant opposition within the party as well.

Perhaps I'm too jaded. I think it's likely that nothing is done, or that it is negotiated down to a near trivial amount that is only available to a very narrow subset of indebted borrowers.
 
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Republican cooperation is a non starter

Nitpick: The thing about executive orders is that they do not require cooperation from the legislature or anyone else. Whatever the president has the authority to do by executive order, he has the authority to do unilaterally, independent of the other branches and the political parties that occupy them.

I too doubt that Biden will actually issue any such orders. But if he did, the only way the Republicans could stop him would be to pass a law that forecloses executive orders on the subject. Which I think is even more unlikely.
 

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