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Cont: 2020 Presidential Election part 3

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It's an audit and a manual recount.


It is an audit which is being conducted by manual recount. Not the same as an official recount ... which, it turns out ... cannot be conducted by hand.

I had only seen a brief mention of this before I posted, but your response prompted me to further, in depth research.

Here's one example of what I found.

"Hand recounts are not permitted by Georgia law. But the public seems to be demanding one. Moreover, the state was already planning to conduct a risk-limiting audit to verify accuracy of the results. So, audit or recount? Here’s what’s happening.

Recounts and audits are distinct processes. A recount occurs after an election when the margin between candidates is narrow, or if a candidate asks for a recount. Recounts are a literal counting of ballots, sometimes by hand, to confirm the result. Some states have automatically triggered recounts for contests decided within a small margin; other states offer an option for a recount when a candidate requests it. Georgia does not have automatic recounts, but a candidate can request a recount after certification.

Contrary to recounts, an audit seeks to verify that the primary counting method is accurate. In Georgia, Risk Limiting Audits, or RLAs, are required by state statute. In an RLA, a certain number of ballots are audited based on the margin of victory between candidates in the race selected for auditing. Closer margins require more ballots to be reviewed in order to achieve a high standard of statistical confidence in the overall result. The process involves taking a small batch of ballots from precincts based on a unique identifier. Even pulling a few hundred ballots can be labor intensive. For contests with very small margins of victory, manually auditing all ballots is more efficient.

Audits are important. BPC recommends that states use audits to instill confidence in the reported outcome. While an RLA cannot confirm a 100% accurate count of the initial results—since it is not a full recount and therefore can only provide confidence within a specific interval—it offers a sound statistical check on the voting process that is sufficient in most cases.

So, what is happening in Georgia right now? Raffensperger ordered a hand-tally of all ballots across the state. One may think that this is a recount, but there are two reasons it is not. First, recounts in Georgia are not done by hand. Second, in Georgia, the results must be certified before a recount can be requested while an audit—per BPC’s recommendation—occurs before certification.

So, the Georgia maneuverings must be an RLA, right? Not quite. What Raffensperger has essentially ordered is a hybrid of an audit and a recount. This means that while they will be assessing every ballot, which is not normal in an ordinary RLA, they will be doing it by hand, which is not normal of a typical recount. After the completion of this process, which is set to happen on or before November 18, Raffensperger will the assess the results and then continue to the certification process on November 20. After certification, a recount can be requested which would see all the ballots scanned by machine again across the state."​
 
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Regarding Nevada:

They (Trump's cult) sure do miss key details. Clark County commissioners have certified all the results of the general election — except in the race for the commission seat representing District C, where ballot discrepancies outnumber Democrat Ross Miller’s 10-vote victory and a special election will be held.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/ar...allots-discrepancies-outnumber-victory-margin


The desperation of these fools is amazing.
 
This is the first time I ever voted absentee, but in Michigan, the number that identifies my ballot as belonging to me was on a perforated stub, visible outside the privacy envelope. In Michigan, the privacy envelope was not a sealed envelope. The stub stuck out at the top.

<snip>


We don't have perforated stubs or privacy envelopes. One envelope, that's it. With an adhesive label permanently (very good adhesive) affixed to it which has the name, address, and individual code (that I mentioned) of the intended recipient.

The code which is also added to the ballot that came with the package.

Said envelope also has the places for the voter's signature, and the signature and address of either a witness (reduced from the two witnesses required in the past) or a notary public.
 
As I said, I don’t think Trump is trying to win the election by having more votes. I think he is just trying to muddy the waters to the point that a large segment of his followers believe the ballot-related crimes of the Democrats invalidates the election and that Trump must stay in office until a secure election can be held.

I view this somewhat differently. The goal is to make Biden's term in office "illegitimate" or words to that effect. Doing so gives Moscow Mitch and the GOPers in the Senate the rationale to raise their obstruction efforts up to 11 on the basis that Biden isn't really the president. It also lays down a plank for the 2022 mid-term elections as a chance to keep the "fake president" from imposing socialism on the country.

ETA: Covered by others.
 
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I view this somewhat differently. The goal is to make Biden's term in office "illegitimate" or words to that effect. Doing so gives Moscow Mitch and the GOPers in the Senate the rationale to raise their obstruction efforts up to 11 on the basis that Biden isn't really the president. It also lays down a plank for the 2022 mid-term elections as a chance to keep the "fake president" from imposing socialism on the country.

You're overthinking this. This is an enraged toddler smearing his feces on the walls because mommy and daddy stopped him from doing what he wants. There's no plan behind this beyond "WAAAAAAAH I HATE YOU MOMMY!!!!"
 
Trump Tweets

Big victory moments ago in the State of Nevada. The all Democrat County Commissioner race, on same ballot as President, just thrown out because of large scale voter discrepancy. Clark County officials do not have confidence in their own election security. Major impact!
Quote Tweet

Adam Paul Laxalt
@AdamLaxalt
The Clark County Commission just threw out an election that represents almost 1/6 of the total votes cast in Clark County because there were too many “discrepancies” to be sure that that the results in that election can be certain. 153K votes in this election. twitter.com/meganmesserly/…

The number of discrepancies was 139, well above the 10 vote margin of victory.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/...e-close-clark-county-commission-race-2184993/

ETA: For what it's worth, I really would like to see election systems so reliable that there would not be 139 discrepancies, or races that had to be run. I want that for a simple reason. I want to be able to say, completely honestly, that your one vote really does matter, because an election could be decided by one vote.

However, that level of accuracy might be a bit ambitious. Still, your one vote could be the one vote that makes someone decide that there will not be a special election. That's just not quite as easy to describe to most people.
 
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They "found" 800 votes in Floyd County for trump. Which means, he still lost.

Out of 2600 total that were recovered (link is to article on The Hill website via MSN):

Over 2,600 votes have reportedly been uncovered in Georgia amid its recount process that weren't previously included in the state's overall tally of ballots in the presidential election.
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the ballots were uncovered in Floyd County.
...
According to the newspaper, President Trump could see roughly 800 net votes added to his tally in the state as a result of the discovery.

However, it doesn't seem likely the potential addition will change the projected outcome of the presidential election in Georgia, where President-elect Joe Biden was projected by multiple news outlets to have won last week after building a lead of more than 13,000 votes, according to unofficial results.

Unofficial, of course...but it looks like math may be a bitch for Trump. He's already said the recount in GA is a waste of time- he's right, but not for the reason he thinks.
 
I view this somewhat differently. The goal is to make Biden's term in office "illegitimate" or words to that effect. Doing so gives Moscow Mitch and the GOPers in the Senate the rationale to raise their obstruction efforts up to 11 on the basis that Biden isn't really the president. It also lays down a plank for the 2022 mid-term elections as a chance to keep the "fake president" from imposing socialism on the country.

You're overthinking this. This is an enraged toddler smearing his feces on the walls because mommy and daddy stopped him from doing what he wants. There's no plan behind this beyond "WAAAAAAAH I HATE YOU MOMMY!!!!"

I think you're both right, in a way.

No Trump doesn't have some actual thought out, Machivalian plan. He is, as TragicMonkey put it, operating on the level of a toddler who has thrown himself on the floor of the Walmart kicking and screaming because Mommy won't buy him the new TurboMan action figure.

But not having a plan isn't the same thing as operating without purpose. Trump has in the 70 sad years of his life certainly developed a subconscious awareness of what he's doing.

He's a toddler throwing a tantrum and that's as far as his higher brain is going, but his raw lower brain knows on some level which types of tantrums, thrown where, when, and at who, are most effective.

Trump doesn't have a plan, but he does have something vaguely equivalent to a survivor's instinct.

Evil idiots who nonetheless have, almost against their will, developed a set of skills are sadly an all too common thing.
 
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....
Trump doesn't have a plan, but he does have something vaguely equivalent to a survivor's instinct.

Evil idiots who nonetheless have, almost against their will, developed a set of skills are sadly an all too common thing.

Exactly - he's an opportunistic troll. He knows that trolling sometimes creates opportunities. More or less unplanned, random opportunities. A good opportunist knows how to take advantage of such things. So he does not know what sort of chances all this might create (if any), but he's ready to move on them anyway.

And if that does not work - well, he's a troll, the triumphalist sort of troll. He's having fun with this (no meltdowns for this guy, he'll roll out of the White House laughing at how badly he pawned the noobs).
 
Trump Tweets

Big victory moments ago in the State of Nevada. The all Democrat County Commissioner race, on same ballot as President, just thrown out because of large scale voter discrepancy. Clark County officials do not have confidence in their own election security. Major impact!
Quote Tweet

Adam Paul Laxalt
@AdamLaxalt
The Clark County Commission just threw out an election that represents almost 1/6 of the total votes cast in Clark County because there were too many “discrepancies” to be sure that that the results in that election can be certain. 153K votes in this election. twitter.com/meganmesserly/…


This is such bs. This is what happened.

Commission District C was not certified today. Elections officials discussed the possibility of a special election to resolve the race. There were 139 discrepancies in a race with a 10 vote margin. The county however did certify all the other election contests including the presidency as the number of discrepancies did not materially affect any of those races.

900,000 ballots were cast countywide, 936 discrepancies were identified. Six voters were identified as voting twice

Election officials gave hypothetical examples of possible discrepancies, saying if someone fails to sign in at a polling location but votes at a machine, then that precinct will be off by one vote. Another example is if a person checks in to vote but doesn't hit the "cast vote" button before they leave, that would also be a discrepancy.
https://www.ktnv.com/news/political/elections-local/nevada-2020-presidential-election-state-results

Damn it! Ninja'd by Meadmaker
 
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They "found" 800 votes in Floyd County for trump. Which means, he still lost.

I don't know why you put "found" in scare quotes.

Unless there's some clear evidence of shenanigans, I'll accept that the story is true. The Georgia Sec'y of State seems to believe it's true and I've yet to see any evidence that he's a scoundrel.
 
I don't know why you put "found" in scare quotes.

Unless there's some clear evidence of shenanigans, I'll accept that the story is true. The Georgia Sec'y of State seems to believe it's true and I've yet to see any evidence that he's a scoundrel.

I concur.

This irregularity was discovered Friday and they have been counting all weekend.
No other similar discovery of ballots has been uncovered so I guess that is the end of this. I'm pretty sure these were ballots inside sealed envelopes, not just unassociated ballots.
 
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I concur.

This irregularity was discovered Friday and they have been counting all weekend.
No other similar discovery of ballots has been uncovered so I guess that is the end of this. I'm pretty sure these were ballots inside sealed envelopes, not just unassociated ballots.

According to news reports here, it was a single memory card that wasn't uploaded which had some 2600 votes cast in early voting here.

1643 votes for Trump, 865 for Biden
https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgi...presidential-race/I75NSPYYGNF43HQZBPYKJWJ5MA/
 
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. Another example is if a person checks in to vote but doesn't hit the "cast vote" button before they leave, that would also be a discrepancy.

That happened to me when I voted. Well, I was the person who saw the problem. The guy in front of me never actually hit the button to confirm his vote. By the time I realized what he did and called someone over, the machine had spit his ballot back at me (once spit out, it gets spoiled). I don't think they caught up to the guy to have him come back; I think they were working on figuring out who he was when I left.
 
I don't know why you put "found" in scare quotes.

Unless there's some clear evidence of shenanigans, I'll accept that the story is true. The Georgia Sec'y of State seems to believe it's true and I've yet to see any evidence that he's a scoundrel.

I think it's probably a sarcastic imitation of how Republicans tend to describe Biden ballots added to the total at times they don't approve of.
 
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