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Cont: 2020 Presidential Election part 3

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pgwenthold said:
I agree.

A hand recount means a lot more people involved, and a lot more locations (even if it means more tables in a gym). Then you have to combine all those counts.

It would be more efficient and less diffuse to run a stack of 100 000 through a machine in a couple of hours than to have them split out into 20 stacks of 5 000
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And a hand recount will make it vastly easier for officials in Republican counties to cook the books.
 
Trebuchet said:
Like Ginger, I find this very concerning. Dudalb thinks it's nuts, but I consider martial law to be an all too real possibility.
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It's hard to imagine any other reason for Trump to appoint loyalists to top military positions at this point. It's not just military positions either, he's moving loyalists into place in several agencies.
 
acbytesla said:
You're right. I went over that yesterday. The magins are bigger in

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Not to mention

Washington
Oregon
California

And that's when I stopped checking. EC's argument has ZERO merit. It is TOTALLY FALSE.
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I think you're looking at this differently than I am. I'm looking at states that were close in 2016 versus states that are close at present, and the effect that the electoral votes of those states would have on the overall outcome of the election.

To that end, the margins in Washington, Oregon, and California are irrelevant. They all went to Clinton & Biden by insurmountable margins in both elections. They aren't even in the pool of consideration for this round of game theory :)

In 2016, there were 2 states with a margin of less than 1% difference: Michigan (0.3%) and Wisconsin (1%). Clinton had 227 Electoral votes. Michigan is worth 16, and Wisconsin is worth 10. If Clinton had sought a recount of those two states (one in a close race that would have benefited her if they flipped), she would have gained a total of 26 electoral votes, putting her at 253. That's still below the 270 threshold needed to clinch the presidency. The next closest race was Pennsylvania, which has 20 EC votes, and was at a 1.2% margin, and 68,000 votes.

In 2020 (to date) there are four states with a current margin of less than 1%: Arizona (0.1%), Wisconsin (0.7%), Georgia (0.3%), and Pennsylvania (0.7%). In total, they are worth 57 Electoral votes, which would be enough to win the presidency. I don't think there's any reasonable chance of that happening, but I'm treating both elections with the same logic.

So, in 2016, the borderline states didn't have enough votes to gain Clinton the win. It wouldn't have been worth her while to challenge, as it had no chance of changing the outcome. In 2020, the borderline states DO have enough votes to gain Trump the win. Thus, it's worth his while to challenge them.

The complication here is that there are still a fair number of absentee ballots not counted, due to COVID and the USPS. Like I said, I don't see the final outcome shifting sufficiently to give Trump a win, but I can see the rationale of challenging those counts.

I've lost track of where he's challenging though. I'm pretty sure he's challenging in states that make no sense to challenge at all.

ETA: Forgot to include the references.
2016 election results
2020 election results (to date)
 
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acbytesla said:
This Election ISN'T CLOSE. The counting continues and Biden's margin of victory keeps growing.

JOE BIDEN: 77,383,920

D TRUMP: 72,274,587

MARGIN OF VICTORY 5,109,333
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Just for reference, Biden's share of the popular vote right now (50.8%) is bigger than Reagan's share of the popular vote in 1980 (50.7%). Granted, Reagan lost a lot of votes to Anderson, which Biden didn't, and Carter got way less of % than Trump, but still, a bigger fraction of voters in the US wanted Biden this year than wanted Reagan in 1980. Remember, the reason Anderson was on the ticket is because not even a lot of Republicans wanted to vote for Reagan yet at that point.

The EC vote was a complete landslide, and the difference in the popular vote was also huge, but that's not because there was this huge support for Reagan.
 
Emily's Cat said:
In 2016, there were 2 states with a margin of less than 1% difference: Michigan (0.3%) and Wisconsin (1%). Clinton had 227 Electoral votes. Michigan is worth 16, and Wisconsin is worth 10. If Clinton had sought a recount of those two states (one in a close race that would have benefited her if they flipped), she would have gained a total of 26 electoral votes, putting her at 253. That's still below the 270 threshold needed to clinch the presidency. The next closest race was Pennsylvania, which has 20 EC votes, and was at a 1.2% margin, and 68,000 votes.
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Again, no. Pennsylvania difference was .72%, some 44,000 votes.

Sheesh.
 
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acbytesla said:
This Election ISN'T CLOSE. The counting continues and Biden's margin of victory keeps growing.

JOE BIDEN: 77,383,920

D TRUMP: 72,274,587

MARGIN OF VICTORY 5,109,333
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It is as the prophesy foretold. A man from Delaware would come in the hour of darkness and straight up, make Trump his bitch, like totally do the spanky dance on his ass.
 
According to the NYT, it's now 5 133 964

Don't worry, it will be 6 million by the time it's over.
 
slyjoe said:
From Politico:


My main point is a full hand recount is less accurate than a machine recount.
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I can't tell if the Ga. secretary of state is contradicting himself for not. He talks about a full hand-count, but he also talks about a risk-limiting audit.

It sounds to me a lot like fiddling with the data until they get it "right."
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Tweets flagged by Twitter:
This claim about election fraud is disputed


Trump Tweets

The Fake Pollsters at @ABC/@washingtonpost produced a possibly illegal suppression Poll just before the Election showing me down 17 points in Wisconsin when, in fact, on Election Day, the race was even - & we are now preparing to win the state. Many such “deplorable” instances!

A guy named Al Schmidt, a Philadelphia Commissioner and so-called Republican (RINO), is being used big time by the Fake News Media to explain how honest things were with respect to the Election in Philadelphia. He refuses to look at a mountain of corruption & dishonesty. We win!
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Sounds like he's doing that thing where right-wingers just mash words that they hear together so they can whine about something without actually defining what they're so upset about, like "Cancel/Woke Culture" and other such gibberish.
 
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