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Cont: 2020 Presidential Election part 3

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I'm sure the consensus in this thread (I haven't been keeping up with it)...
I bet you haven't.

I personally have seen enough evidence going around to put us well beyond the point of justifying a careful, deliberate look and recount in specific states.
There has been precisely zero credible evidence of tampering or fraud... on the Biden side, at least.

There are some serious abnormalities.
Considering the medical circumstances involved, there have been exactly no "abnormalities".

When it all gets hashed out, will it be enough to overturn the result as it stands now? Maybe, maybe not. I would say the odds are probably against Trump here.
Trump lost this election by a significant margin, in a free and fair process. He would have lost the first one as well, had it not been for for an outdated gimmick.

So why did I make the renewed declaration and the avatar bet, then?
Because the Jews will not replace you?
 
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I think there's a certain amount of what you might call "maintenance" type investigations that are useful in assuring the public that there's nothing to the allegations. Not that it will ever be 100% effective, either. As the old saying goes, you can't reason someone out of something that he didn't reason himself into.

The people shouting the loudest about election fraud are, of course, not thinking at all. They're just saying that if their guy lost, it much be fraud. Those people cannot be reached at all. Beyond that, though, there's another group who hears the allegations, and can't come up with any explanation for the sketchy evidence, and sees the allegations dismissed, and begins to think maybe there's something to it.

People who come here are more likely to have investigated some sort of conspiracy theories before, and see all of the tell-tale signs of a CT in the "evidence" of election fraud today. However, most people have never done that. A little bit of official word demonstrating why the apparently suspicious activity has a perfectly innocent explanation, or that the effect is so tiny the suspicious ballots could not have changed anything, would go a long way toward convincing the ones on the fence about whether they think there might be election fraud.

For example, I just saw a video of a group of yahoos in our state capital of Lansing, Michigan, chanting "Dead People Voted!" So, they are sure that lots of dead people voted and they probably think Michigan was stolen, or at least that the evil Democrats did the same thing in Georgia and stole that one. Maybe they saw the video, posted on this forum from a tweet, showing what appeared to be evidence that a vote was received from a 120 year old woman in Jackson County. Well, I saw that video, and I cannot come up with a convincing explanation of how that came to pass. I'm sure lots of other people saw that video, too, and some, failing to come up with a non-fraudulent explanation, are sure that means it proves vote fraud.

So, I would like someone to look into what happened there. I don't mean a million dollar investigation. I just mean that I think it would be worth the effort if someone in the Jackson County Clerk's office checked out whether the video is really legitimate, whether the woman in question really represents a woman, long since passed away, but who is still on the voter rolls, but who nevertheless recorded a vote. I'm guessing not, but I don't know the explanation of how that might have come to pass any other way.

It just helps to reassure people. If you can show them that one or two of the "proof of voter fraud" videos that they have seen on youtube are not legitimate, they might think that there's probably good explanations for the others, too. If you ignore all of them, and just say, "There's no evidence.", the people might think that you are just ignoring the evidence.

ETA: Newt Gingrich is running around talking about vote fraud, and citing an example from the Franken-Coleman recount about an envelope full of ballots that magically appeared to put the Democrat, Franken, over the top. Well, I know exactly the envelope he's talking about, and why the overwhelming evidence is that it was a perfectly legitimate envelope full of real votes, that should have been, and was, counted. However, I follow this sort of thing a lot more closely than most. If you can find the most widespread allegations you can find, and put together a report detailing the reasons why this is almost certainly not voter fraud, it could make a difference in the mind of some of the protestors. Not all, of course. Some are hopeless, but some are reachable.

We do have explanations for the dead voters though:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/08/tech/michigan-dead-voter-fact-debunking/index.html

Explanations:

- two people having an identical name
- completely legal votes using a temporary default birthdate (usually January 1900, which sounds like what the 120 year old woman would be about)
- other clerical errors
- genuine long-living individuals

At any rate, even if an actual dead person had voted, that vote would have been thrown out in line with counting procedures. This is also true for people who died after having voted but before election day.
 
Thank you Roger. My only reason for posting this information is because it seems to be exactly what the Trump side is alleging. The merits of that are in question. I don't feel they are obligated(legally) to tip their hand before they file their suits, which I believe is happening tomorrow.

There are no merits in question. It's a tantrum because Trump is a baby. Taking this seriously is absurd. There is no way he can win this election. He has lost. This parrot is deceased.
 
Jr is a chip off the block. He has ZERO evidence of Voter Fraud and yet he insists that it be investigated.

Man am I sick of Trump family members pulling a turd out of their ass and demanding that we examine it.

Just think - they're all going to have to find employment for the first time in their miserable lives.
 
Apologies for my absolutely brilliant first post. It was indeed a pocket post. I read that and wondered who that dumbass was and then realized it was me.

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We do have explanations for the dead voters though:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/08/tech/michigan-dead-voter-fact-debunking/index.html

Explanations:

- two people having an identical name
- completely legal votes using a temporary default birthdate (usually January 1900, which sounds like what the 120 year old woman would be about)
- other clerical errors
- genuine long-living individuals

At any rate, even if an actual dead person had voted, that vote would have been thrown out in line with counting procedures. This is also true for people who died after having voted but before election day.

Somebody on Twitter took the time to go through all the claimed voting fraud occurrences. Good thread.
 
I'm sure the consensus in this thread (haven't been keeping up with it) is that the claims of election tampering / fraud, etc. are overblown, stuff that always happens, not enough to change the outcome, outright lies, rumor, speculation, whatever.

That is what I'd expect folks here to think.

I personally have seen enough evidence going around to put us well beyond the point of justifying a careful, deliberate look and recount in specific states.

There are some serious abnormalities.

When it all gets hashed out, will it be enough to overturn the result as it stands now? Maybe, maybe not. I would say the odds are probably against Trump here.

So why did I make the renewed declaration and the avatar bet, then? Because I find doubling down / long shots / die hard mentality to be appealing and worthy of subscription.

Re: The vote fraud. The problem is that we're just dealing with rumors and I heard this person say that thing and there was a video on youtube and etc. etc. When all is said and done, it has the same failings as all the other conspiracy theories.

How do you actually do it? In order to make it happen, the shadowy "them" can't do it. Very specific people have to execute very specific actions in such a way that those actions are not revealed to the public. I wish I had the project management skills to add 10,000 votes to Joe Biden's totals without being exposed, but I don't. Every scheme I think of requires the active participation of people who have every incentive to sxpose me.

But....I'm certainly for a careful deliberate look for voting fraud. We had one, with quite a big budget overseen by President Trump after the 2016 election, but it didn't turn up anything. So let's have another one, except I might go for a smaller budget this time.

Recounts? Absolutely. Count them. I haven't heard that Georgia has cancelled their recount. Go fort it. Once again there might be some budget issues, but at least, say, the two closest states. What would that be? Georgia and Arizona. Sure, why not? Last time around Jill Stein paid 3.5 million dollars for a recount. Surely Trump has enough that he could afford that, whether his own money or his campaign's. If any states are close enough to trigger a free recount, then by all means reacount.

And it's not because I'm confident Biden would still win. I am, but that's a secondary notion. The President of the United States has alleged fraud. That is so, incredibly, dangerous and damaging to our country. We ought to do whatever it takes to correct that damage, and recounts would be one part of that.

And those "serious abnormalities"? Well, if there are serious abnormalities, then not only should they be investigated, the results of that investigation should be clear and transparent, and the report should include explaining why the "serious abnormalities" weren't really serious or abnormal, except in the sense that the circumstances of this election were pretty seriously abnormal right from the beginning.
 
We do have explanations for the dead voters though:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/08/tech/michigan-dead-voter-fact-debunking/index.html

Explanations:

- two people having an identical name
- completely legal votes using a temporary default birthdate (usually January 1900, which sounds like what the 120 year old woman would be about)
- other clerical errors
- genuine long-living individuals

At any rate, even if an actual dead person had voted, that vote would have been thrown out in line with counting procedures. This is also true for people who died after having voted but before election day.

Exactly, although I doubt most states would catch the fact that certain people died after having filled out their absentee ballots. I doubt the information systems are linked well enough to catch that. Maybe some states have taken steps to do that. Dead people on the voter rolls has been an issue for a long time, just because how would the people running the registration system know that someone had died?

When I say I have no explanation for that one that I saw on video, I just mean I can't tell you exactly how that one vote ended up being cast. I think it would be helpful to, somewhere, describe exactly how that happened, as an illustration of how something can be made to look suspicious when, in reality, it's quite straightforward

ETA: I wrote the above before I clicked on the link. I had thought that the link would be a sort of generic description, as opposed to dealing with the specific examples from the previously posted videos. I'm surprised that they can catch the "died before election day" cases.

At any rate, I think these sorts of journalistic investigations are extremely important. Sadly, there will be people who are unconvinced, no matter how much evidence is put before them, but such is the nature of humanity..
 
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I think there's a certain amount of what you might call "maintenance" type investigations that are useful in assuring the public that there's nothing to the allegations. Not that it will ever be 100% effective, either. As the old saying goes, you can't reason someone out of something that he didn't reason himself into.

The people shouting the loudest about election fraud are, of course, not thinking at all. They're just saying that if their guy lost, it much be fraud. Those people cannot be reached at all. Beyond that, though, there's another group who hears the allegations, and can't come up with any explanation for the sketchy evidence, and sees the allegations dismissed, and begins to think maybe there's something to it.

People who come here are more likely to have investigated some sort of conspiracy theories before, and see all of the tell-tale signs of a CT in the "evidence" of election fraud today. However, most people have never done that. A little bit of official word demonstrating why the apparently suspicious activity has a perfectly innocent explanation, or that the effect is so tiny the suspicious ballots could not have changed anything, would go a long way toward convincing the ones on the fence about whether they think there might be election fraud.

For example, I just saw a video of a group of yahoos in our state capital of Lansing, Michigan, chanting "Dead People Voted!" So, they are sure that lots of dead people voted and they probably think Michigan was stolen, or at least that the evil Democrats did the same thing in Georgia and stole that one. Maybe they saw the video, posted on this forum from a tweet, showing what appeared to be evidence that a vote was received from a 120 year old woman in Jackson County. Well, I saw that video, and I cannot come up with a convincing explanation of how that came to pass. I'm sure lots of other people saw that video, too, and some, failing to come up with a non-fraudulent explanation, are sure that means it proves vote fraud.

So, I would like someone to look into what happened there. I don't mean a million dollar investigation. I just mean that I think it would be worth the effort if someone in the Jackson County Clerk's office checked out whether the video is really legitimate, whether the woman in question really represents a woman, long since passed away, but who is still on the voter rolls, but who nevertheless recorded a vote. I'm guessing not, but I don't know the explanation of how that might have come to pass any other way.

It just helps to reassure people. If you can show them that one or two of the "proof of voter fraud" videos that they have seen on youtube are not legitimate, they might think that there's probably good explanations for the others, too. If you ignore all of them, and just say, "There's no evidence.", the people might think that you are just ignoring the evidence.

ETA: Newt Gingrich is running around talking about vote fraud, and citing an example from the Franken-Coleman recount about an envelope full of ballots that magically appeared to put the Democrat, Franken, over the top. Well, I know exactly the envelope he's talking about, and why the overwhelming evidence is that it was a perfectly legitimate envelope full of real votes, that should have been, and was, counted. However, I follow this sort of thing a lot more closely than most. If you can find the most widespread allegations you can find, and put together a report detailing the reasons why this is almost certainly not voter fraud, it could make a difference in the mind of some of the protestors. Not all, of course. Some are hopeless, but some are reachable.

I appreciate what you say, but this is creating a never-ending cycle of claim-investigation-debunking in which those people claiming voter fraud are never satisfied because even if this case is explained (and they may not be satisfied with any explanation), what about the next case ?

Even if a handful of cases are proven, that merely confirms what the MSM has been saying - that voter fraud isn't entirely absent, but that the incidence is incredibly low and it has no influence on the outcome. OTOH that handful of cases is merely grist to the GOP conspiracy mill and proof positive that millions of people voted fraudulently.

I've had experience with UK government benefits systems and we've had our share of unfeasibly old people. It tends to come down to one of two things:

  • User error when the birth date was entered
  • Two people with similar names and addresses and the wrong one was marked as deceased

People actually trying to subvert the system use "valid" data - makes it easier to slip through the net.


edited to add....

Comprehensively ninja'd by Olmstead :o
 
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Jr is a chip off the block. He has ZERO evidence of Voter Fraud and yet he insists that it be investigated.

Man am I sick of Trump family members pulling a turd out of their ass and demanding that we examine it.

You've got that backwards. The turds pulled Trumps out of their ass.
 
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Valid point. Something that I will watch with interest is how trump will continue to badger elected Republicans from the sidelines over the next indeterminate period of time.

It's not a new concept in politics, but trump is now a monster of their own making and while they may have enjoyed his assaults on Democratic participants, they've never been able to rein him in or control him as they may have hoped to have been able to when he first started his mindless rampage. They're still going to feel teeth.

As evidenced by Eric's tweet, "Where is the GOP? Our voters will not forget", the trumps view trump voters as their weapon, and you can be sure those will be wielded against Republicans in the future.
 
Eric Trump tweeted
@EricTrump

Software from hell! There needs to be a manual recount of every ballot in this country right now!

Gee, Eric, you have a long way to go before you sound quite as loony as daddy. But.... keep practicing.

Hans
 
Every ballot in the country? What a buffoon.

Very much so. Flipping the election in Trump's favor would require there to be over 4 million fraudulent votes. Should be possible to show with a fairly small sample.

Hans
 
Very much so. Flipping the election in Trump's favor would require there to be over 4 million fraudulent votes. Should be possible to show with a fairly small sample.

Hans

Not quite. Winning the popular vote would require that.

Winning the electoral college would require the cumulative difference in the swing states, a couple of hundred thousand - maybe ? :confused:

I mean it's still a ridiculously large number and would not require a large sample BUT almost all of those who are arguing that the election has been influenced by fraudulent votes are doing so in bad faith. There is literally no evidence they will accept that there hasn't been large-scale voter fraud and the handful of examples which are found will be proof positive that the election has been stolen.

Indeed, for them, the lack of evidence of large scale voter fraud is proof positive that it must exist and clear evidence of how good the cover up is. :rolleyes:
 
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