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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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I mean sure I'm still nervous as ****. The fat lady has not sang and even when she does we face the near certaint possibility of Trump going "I didn't hear no fat lady, I still won."
 
In the UK, vote counting only starts after the polls have closed.

I don't get the shouts to stop counting, the polls have closed.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I'm scared Trump could still actually win. He's ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. The counts are close but Biden hasn't pulled ahead yet.

And in Nevada Biden only leads by 12,000 votes which sounds promising but the NYT says a lot of those outstanding votes are absentee and Trump won absentee votes in that state by a very large margin.

NYT Nevada results You may need to refresh the page to update the counts.
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I would suggest a quick trip over to fivethirtyeight. The votes to be counted in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia are in areas that heavily favour Biden.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I'm scared Trump could still actually win. He's ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. The counts are close but Biden hasn't pulled ahead yet.

And in Nevada Biden only leads by 12,000 votes which sounds promising but the NYT says a lot of those outstanding votes are absentee and Trump won absentee votes in that state by a very large margin.

NYT Nevada results You may need to refresh the page to update the counts.
Click to expand...

OK, but yesterday Biden was only leading by 8000 votes. So yay, sort of?
 
Nessie said:
In the UK, vote counting only starts after the polls have closed.

I don't get the shouts to stop counting, the polls have closed.
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Because in the United States our version of Democracy being a game to be played rather than a simple efficient system that gives quick and accurate results is a feature, not a bug.
 
Meadmaker said:
I don't think we'll have any faithless electors in a situation where it would actually change the election outcome.

At least, it has never happened yet in American history, but there's always a first time, eh?
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You know it's 2020, right? You should knock on wood or toss some salt over your shoulder, or maybe pray to someone. I dunno anymore, man.
 
Meadmaker said:
I did some of the same calculations I was doing last night, and they show improvement in PA and Nevada, but they are getting to the point where roundoff error is significant. I don't know if "88% remaining" is 87.6% or 88.3%. When it's in the 90s, that becomes really crucial.

And then there are where the votes are, and how many haven't arrived by mail, and is it a "received by" state or a "postmarked by" state?

In short, there's not much point in those calculations at this point. I might have to find a more detailed site....or, I could just ignore it? Nah.


What does seem clear to me is that all four states that are outstanding now are heading for recounts. (Does anyone really believe that AK or NC is still in play?)

ETA: And Geogia is a "fix by" state. What I mean by that is that if your absentee ballot arrives, but it's booted for a signature mismatch or other technicality, the elections board is supposed to contact the voter, and they have until tomorrow to fix the problem and get the vote counted.

I wonder if the list of voters whose ballots were rejected on technicalities is available to campaigns. If so, Biden ought to be recruiting as many people as possible in Georgia to hunt down those people and get them to go fix their ballots.
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Yeah, yesterday, The Washington Post had GA's estimated percentage of votes counted at 99 percent for the entire day (or until I went to bed)! Everything else was inline with the NYT's election stats so I figured it was just somebody's brain glitch.

ETA: Looks like the finally changed it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/georgia-2020/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9
 
Elagabalus said:
OK, but yesterday Biden was only leading by 8000 votes. So yay, sort of?
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The areas in Nevada still to report are all ones likely to lean heavily to Biden and the mail ballots, which have been leaning to the blue end of the spectrum.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I'm scared Trump could still actually win. He's ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. The counts are close but Biden hasn't pulled ahead yet.

And in Nevada Biden only leads by 12,000 votes which sounds promising but the NYT says a lot of those outstanding votes are absentee and Trump won absentee votes in that state by a very large margin.

NYT Nevada results You may need to refresh the page to update the counts.

On the hopeful side, Biden could win Pennsylvania. There are enough votes left for him to pull ahead. Might be the one thing 538 got right, Penn will be the key state.
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It's Nevada or bust. I don't think Pennsylvania is going Biden- just too much ground to make up.

Making me ill that the Nevada elections guy just told us that it could be two more days for them to finish.
 
Distracted1 said:
It's Nevada or bust. I don't think Pennsylvania is going Biden- just too much ground to make up.
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According to CNN number crunchers, Biden is exceeding the necessary incoming votes required to win GA and PA ... so far.
 
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Per CNN, Trump is discussing, with officials, a 2024 run for the presidency.

LOL
 
Fox News host Mark Levin calls for the election to be invalidated by Republicans so Trump stays in power.


REMINDER TO THE REPUBLICAN STATE LEGISLATURES, YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY OVER THE CHOOSING OF ELECTORS, NOT ANY BOARD OF ELECTIONS, SECRETARY OF STATE, GOVERNOR, OR EVEN COURT. YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY -- ARTICLE II OF THE FED CONSTITUTION. SO, GET READY TO DO YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL DUTY
 
Distracted1 said:
It's Nevada or bust. I don't think Pennsylvania is going Biden- just too much ground to make up.

Making me ill that the Nevada elections guy just told us that it could be two more days for them to finish.
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Isn't that assuming Biden has AZ?
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Fox News host Mark Levin calls for the election to be invalidated by Republicans so Trump stays in power.


REMINDER TO THE REPUBLICAN STATE LEGISLATURES, YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY OVER THE CHOOSING OF ELECTORS, NOT ANY BOARD OF ELECTIONS, SECRETARY OF STATE, GOVERNOR, OR EVEN COURT. YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY -- ARTICLE II OF THE FED CONSTITUTION. SO, GET READY TO DO YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL DUTY
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Geez, I'm sorry I missed that. I started off switching between CNN and Fox at the beginning of election coverage, but I couldn't hack it, and stayed with CNN.

Still, I thought Fox was avoiding going full loon.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Per CNN, Trump is discussing, with officials, a 2024 run for the presidency.

LOL
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Ha!

My hope is that with a Biden win <crosses fingers> enough of the 2024 primary voters will have seen what a "boring" president is like again and not want to go back to someone as unstable as Trump.
 
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