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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Matthew Best said:
He'd need Nevada as well.
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Yes true, but Nevada is pretty reliably blue at this point in the count.

Of the remaining states to be called:

Alaska - certain Red

N Carolina - tossup, maybe leaning Red

Georgia - tossup, maybe leaning Red

Wisconsin - highly likely Blue

Michigan - highly likely Blue

Nevada - highly likely Blue

Arizona - almost certain Blue

Pennsylvania - tossup, no idea which way that one is going. If Michigan and Wisconsin both go blue, then it'll probably fall to Biden, if either Michigan or Wisconsin stay red then Trump has a better chance in PA.


There will likely be recounts in most of these states. Tho the results almost certainly won't change, recounts historically have flipped a result 3 out of 27 times, and only usually do so when the margin is in the hundreds of votes.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
FiveThirtyEight is updating that map where you can play with state results live, and it currently estimates an 84% chance of victory for Biden.
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Weren't they one of those who were showing a solid lead for Biden, practically a home run. Not in the margin of error, like for Clinton back in the days. It was just a question of how big Biden's win would be, right?

Yeah, I think I will pass on this site.
 
Locally there may be some excitement with voting. I voted in 1980, but as I was moving out of California in Nov of 82, so I have no idea if I bothered to vote. It was a chance to get rid of Reagan whom I hated. I even made fun of my dad who voted for him. I never talked poltics with him after that. As a young voter you don't follow all this stuff well. Once you have voted for president twice, then you get into it more.
 
It just comes down to what happens when he wakes up in his ever cheery morning mood and hears his aides, however vaguely, suggest states are being "stolen" from him.
 
Ambrosia said:
Pennsylvania - tossup, no idea which way that one is going. If Michigan and Wisconsin both go blue, then it'll probably fall to Biden, if either Michigan or Wisconsin stay red then Trump has a better chance in PA.
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Pennylvania tossup?
Trump is leading by more than 10% while 76% have been counted. Yes, I know the Mails will likely turn for him, but 10% at 76%?

I don't see that as a tossup.
 
Meadmaker said:
I've been reading stuff from Nate Sliver et. al. about why they got 2016 wrong, and they assured us that they had fixed it,
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Nate Silver isn't a pollster, he's a poll aggregator. He takes all the polls and smushes them together and runs them through a model to try to get a more accurate picture.

I did like John Boltons comment this morning that all of the pollsters should be sent to Antarctica for several years to practise counting penguins.

I think that opinion polls can't deal well with candidates like Trump. They are geared towards politicians and Trump is a conman/salesman not a politician.

I had thought that the polls would have been more accurate this year than 2016, but I was very wrong about that.
 
carlosy said:
Pennylvania tossup?
Trump is leading by more than 10% while 76% have been counted. Yes, I know the Mails will likely turn for him, but 10% at 76%?

I don't see that as a tossup.
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We will see in a few more days. I think it's waaay too close to call.
 
carlosy said:
And one of the biggest disasters especially for all the projection companies.
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When one party run partly on the idea that the polling companies are the enemy and encourages party supporters to not participate, or to lie to pollsters this should not be too much of a surprise.
 
crescent said:
When one party run partly on the idea that the polling companies are the enemy and encourages party supporters to not participate, or to lie to pollsters this should not be too much of a surprise.
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Doesn't matter. They were wrong big time in 2016. Now they were even more wrong, despite knowing what happened in 2016.
If anything, this plays into the hands of the Trumpanzees who have already been saying that these polls are fake and fabricated etc.

I hate to use the word, but it is a disaster for them.
 
carlosy said:
Doesn't matter. They were wrong big time in 2016. Now they were even more wrong, despite knowing what happened in 2016.
If anything, this plays into the hands of the Trumpanzees who have already been saying that these polls are fake and fabricated etc.

I hate to use the word, but it is a disaster for them.
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Were they wrong?

From the pre election report from 538

But with a 3-point error in Trump’s direction — more or less what happened in 2016 — the race would become competitive. Biden would probably hold on, but he’d only be the outright favorite in states (and congressional districts) containing 279 electoral votes. In Pennsylvania, the tipping-point state, he’d be projected to win by 1.7 percentage points — not within the recount margin, but a close race.

Such a scenario would not be the end of the world for Biden. The extra cushion that he has relative to Clinton helps a lot; it means that with a 2016-style polling error, he’d narrowly win some states that she narrowly lost. Biden has polled well recently in Michigan and Wisconsin in particular and has big leads there. Still, this would not be the sort of outcome that Democrats were hoping for. For one thing, because Biden would probably be reliant on Pennsylvania in this scenario — a state that is expected to take some time to count its vote — the election might take longer to call. For another, it could yield a fairly bad map as far as Democrats’ Senate hopes go, as Biden would be a narrow underdog in several states with key Senate races, including Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa. So while Biden isn’t a normal-sized polling error away from losing, he is a normal-sized polling error away from having a messy win that might not come with control of Congress.
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That seems an accurate description of what is going on....and a 3 point error is not uncommon.
 
carlosy said:
Pennylvania tossup?
Trump is leading by more than 10% while 76% have been counted. Yes, I know the Mails will likely turn for him, but 10% at 76%?

I don't see that as a tossup.
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Because Pennylvania still have more than a million mail-in & absentee ballots to process, and of those counted so far, they have been overwhelming in Biden's favour. The last figure I saw was something on the order of 80/20, and if that holds throughout, Biden will eventually overtake trump.
 
carlosy said:
Weren't they one of those who were showing a solid lead for Biden, practically a home run. Not in the margin of error, like for Clinton back in the days. It was just a question of how big Biden's win would be, right?

Yeah, I think I will pass on this site.
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Well, yeah, but things are really looking pretty good for Biden.

Also, this isn't a model based on polls in the first place, it's an estimate based on news updates as they come in.
 
carlosy said:
Doesn't matter. They were wrong big time in 2016. Now they were even more wrong, despite knowing what happened in 2016.
If anything, this plays into the hands of the Trumpanzees who have already been saying that these polls are fake and fabricated etc.

I hate to use the word, but it is a disaster for them.
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An early look at how trump performed compared to the predicted polling:
RCP (Real Clear Politics I'd imagine?)
OH: +7
WI: +6
IA: +6
TX: +5
FL: +4.5
NC: +1
GA: +1
AZ: -2.5
MN: -3

FiveThirtyEight:
OH: +7
WI: +8
IA: +7
TX: +5
FL: +6
NC: +3
GA: +3
MN: +2
AZ: -1

Quinnipiac allegedly did even worse.

Edit: Source for the above tables: https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1323981955529138176
 
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BobTheCoward said:
Were they wrong?

From the pre election report from 538



That seems an accurate description of what is going on....and a 3 point error is not uncommon.
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I'm waiting for that error to be in favor of the Democratic party for once.
 
Let's establish this: Biden does NOT need to win Pennsylvania. Nor North Carolina or Georgia. If he holds Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine, Biden will have 270 or 271 electoral votes (Maine's 2nd District has a vote of its own, so Maine can go 4-0 or 3-1).

Here's the numbers:

Present count: 224
Nevada: 6
Arizona: 11
Wisconsin: 10
Michigan: 16
Maine: 4 (or 3)

Total: 271 or 270. 270 needed to win.
 
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The first lawsuit has already been launched in Pennsylvania aimed at the mail-in ballots.

A pair of Republicans in Pennsylvania filed a lawsuit on Tuesday claiming that election officials in Montgomery County, a suburban area just outside of Philadelphia, have unlawfully counted mail-in ballots before Election Day and only contacted some of the whose ballots have been found deficient to correct them before polls close.

The suit was filed in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania by Kathy Barnette, a Republican congressional candidate, and Clay Breece, the chairman of the Berks County Republican Party.
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https://lawandcrime.com/2020-electi...uit-aimed-at-mail-in-ballots-in-pennsylvania/
 
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