2020 Presidential Election part 2

[newyorkguy]

Sorry to write this, very sorry, but my gut tells me trump is going to win. Never wished to be wrong about something as much in my life. But I just don't see the numbers working for Biden.

 

[carlosy]

Sorry to write this, very sorry, but my gut tells me trump is going to win. Never wished to be wrong about something as much in my life. But I just don't see the numbers working for Biden.

Doesn't matter how the numbers will end up. Trump has already won! Just keep in mind what kind of gap the polls had.
And even if the numbers will turn to Biden, Trump will fight it all the way and he and his cult will see this election as a win, no matter what.

 

[Matthew Best]

Sorry to write this, very sorry, but my gut tells me trump is going to win. Never wished to be wrong about something as much in my life. But I just don't see the numbers working for Biden.

If Biden picks up Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan then that's enough isn't it?

 

[angrysoba]

Sorry to write this, very sorry, but my gut tells me trump is going to win. Never wished to be wrong about something as much in my life. But I just don't see the numbers working for Biden.

Well, Biden could win in Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Georgia (16) and that is already 280.

Or Biden could win two of those and Pennsylvania (20), and that will get him the victory.

 

[angrysoba]

If Biden picks up Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan then that's enough isn't it?

Yeah, just about.

Then of course, there is the whole obstacle course of legal challenges and faithless electors.

 

[Distracted1]

Sorry to write this, very sorry, but my gut tells me trump is going to win. Never wished to be wrong about something as much in my life. But I just don't see the numbers working for Biden.

This is truly horrific.
There aren't enough antacids on the planet to quell my stomach. I viscerally hate Trump, and find the majority of his cult to be repugnant beyond words.

Will take a long time to regain any kind of peace of mind if this continues to the conclusion that it seems it is going to.

 

[BobTheCoward]

This is truly horrific.
There aren't enough antacids on the planet to quell my stomach. I viscerally hate Trump, and find the majority of his cult to be repugnant beyond words.

Will take a long time to regain any kind of peace of mind if this continues to the conclusion that it seems it is going to.

The last four years have just felt like going to an abusive and toxic work environment.

 

[newyorkguy]

Biden could win in Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Georgia (16) and that is already 280. Or Biden could win two of those and Pennsylvania (20), and that will get him the victory.

The problem is, Biden is trailing in Georgia and Michigan and trump has a huge (12%) lead in Pennsylvania.

 

[KDLarsen]

In any case, the night has already been a disaster for the Democrats, what with them losing seats in the House and at most gaining two seats in the Senate, thus staying in minority.

It can't be chalked up to a poor effort at getting out the vote, as Biden should cross 70 million votes, more than Obama got in 2008. But somehow, the shy trump voters were evidently also out in force, as he's currently just short of 67 million votes - way beyond what has won previous elections.

Is it the death of the notion that a higher turnout favours Democrats?

 

[KDLarsen]

The problem is, Biden is trailing in Georgia and Michigan and trump has a huge (12%) lead in Pennsylvania.

My understanding is that the lead in Pennsylvania is mostly down to rural votes, and that the playing field should be levelled once votes from Pittsburgh starts being added, ie. the much talked about red mirage/blue mist.

From the New York Times (via the Guardian):

President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5am ET on Wednesday, and Joe Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.

So far, Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters.

If Biden won the more than 1.4 million absentee votes by such a large margin, he would net around 800,000 votes — enough to overcome his deficit statewide. Of course, there’s no guarantee that Mr. Biden will win the remaining absentee vote by quite so much.

Edit: Likewise Michigan where the Democrats are counting on votes from Detroit.

 

[Distracted1]

The problem is, Biden is trailing in Georgia and Michigan and trump has a huge (12%) lead in Pennsylvania.

I saw the writing on the wall in PA yesterday morning when people in suburban counties were standing in line for an hour or more.
The high turnout spelled doom for Biden.

 

[ToddH]

My understanding is that the lead in Pennsylvania is mostly down to rural votes, and that the playing field should be levelled once votes from Pittsburgh starts being added, ie. the much talked about red mirage/blue mist.

And he's within around 20,000 votes from taking the lead in Michigan, with a lot more absentee ballots left to count.

 

[angrysoba]

The problem is, Biden is trailing in Georgia and Michigan and trump has a huge (12%) lead in Pennsylvania.

Sure, but Nate Cohn of the NYT assures me that the mail-in ballots are really Blue-shifted and that even though we knew this, we may have been underestimating just how much.

The Michigan lead has been slashed to 0.5% I think, and Trump was way up before.

 

[Distracted1]

And he's within around 20,000 votes from taking the lead in Michigan, with a lot more absentee ballots left to count.

Please, please, let him take MI.
MI plus WI are enough for Joe, no?

 

[KDLarsen]

Please, please, let him take MI.
MI plus WI are enough for Joe, no?

He'll need Nevada as well to hit exactly 270.

Wisconsin almost certainly headed for a recount, since the race is so tight.

 

[Matthew Best]

The problem is, Biden is trailing in Georgia and Michigan and trump has a huge (12%) lead in Pennsylvania.

Latest figures from Michigan:

Decision Desk HQ
@DecisionDeskHQ
·
44m
MI Presidential Election Results

Trump (R): 49.2% (2,345,412 votes)
Biden (D): 49.2% (2,343,266 votes)

So, not trailing by much.

 

[Aidoneus]

Is this with or without Arizona?

 

[KDLarsen]

John Bolton has joined the chorus of former Republican personalities slamming trump's election night remarks:

I feel pretty unhappy this morning. I think the comments president Trump made a few hours ago, where he basically said that he was winning, had won, but now the election would be stolen from him, were some of the most irresponsible comments that a president of the United States has ever made. We don’t know what the outcome will be. It’s entirely possible Trump could win, but he has cast doubt on the integrity of the entire electoral process, purely for his own personal advantage. It’s a disgrace.

Still nothing from any current Republican personalities.

 

[Matthew Best]

Is this with or without Arizona?

I think this is assuming Biden wins Arizona.

 

[PhantomWolf]

The problem is, Biden is trailing in Georgia and Michigan and trump has a huge (12%) lead in Pennsylvania.

Just be aware that all three of these states have a large number of votes outstanding in what are key Democrat demographics. Biden is only 12,000 votes behind in MI, but Wayne County is reporting only 64% complete in a race that is currently going 67.1% to 35.1% to Biden. They potentially have another 200,000 to 300,000 votes to count there, easily enough to flip the State.

It's not over yet.