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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Ambrosia said:
Michigan and Wisconsin are both leaning towards Biden narrowly.

Nate Silver puts Bidens chances as of a few minutes ago at 88%

In Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada Georgia and N Carolina the forecasts as of right now are likely to be pretty close as a fair chunk of the vote is counted, and what's still outstanding is relatively well known.

Biden needs Arizona Nevada Michigan and Wisconsin and that's that. Trump can take Pennsylvania Georgia and N Carolina and he still loses.
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One thing I'll say, yet again - our election system is (still) a mess, and COVID just makes it more apparent than usual.
 
In Georgia Fulton County counting has continued to be delayed. This was due to a burst water pipe. They are expecting their results as late as the afternoon on the 4th.

Clinton won Fulton County by 170,000 votes in 2016. Trump's lead in Georiga currently is about 103,000.
 
KDLarsen said:
Arizona could take a while, as Clark County (ie. Las Vegas, and home to most the the state population) has about 75,000 mail ballots left to count. Biden has a very slender lead, but so far the mail ballots have favoured Democrats 2-to-1.

Edit: My bad, that was as of half an hour ago, I hadn't noticed the timestamp.
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Your bad also as you meant Nevada, not Arizona, unless Clarke County and Las Vegas have moved in the last day or two. ;)
 
Wayne county is starting to come in causing movement in MI.

They are reporting 63% in with Biden holding a lead of 218,000 and is now just 64,000 behind Statewide, With most other areas now at 95-99% in, if these numbers hold for Biden we'll see MI flip to blue and that could potentially be the ball game.
 
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For the past 3 hours since I got up, the BBC and Sky have had Biden 224 on whereas the Guardian and Telegraph have him on 238. Which is it?
 
Nessie said:
For the past 3 hours since I got up, the BBC and Sky have had Biden 224 on whereas the Guardian and Telegraph have him on 238. Which is it?
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Until the electors gather and vote in december, it's technically 0-0, same as every other presidential election. Different groups will have different projections for...a while.
 
The Nevada SoS has stated that there will be no further counts published until Thursday morning. There's also the factor that mail-in voters have a week to fix their ballot if there's a problem with their signature (ie. it's missing or doesn't match what's on record), on top of ballots being counted until the 10th as long as it's been postmarked no later than election day.
 
Nessie said:
For the past 3 hours since I got up, the BBC and Sky have had Biden 224 on whereas the Guardian and Telegraph have him on 238. Which is it?
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Probably caused by Arizona and Maine. Some have projected them for Biden, others aren't calling them yet.
 
Nessie said:
For the past 3 hours since I got up, the BBC and Sky have had Biden 224 on whereas the Guardian and Telegraph have him on 238. Which is it?
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A quick scan of the maps, it looks like Maine (3 votes, since they split theirs) and Arizona (11 votes) haven't been counted by the BBC.

As far as I can tell, the Guardian are going by whatever AP calls, the BBC by Reuters.

Edit: Go figure, as soon as I posted that, this popped up on the Guardian's live text:
For people wondering why some outlets show fewer electoral votes for Biden than we show, the discrepancy appears to arise – depending on where else you are looking – from Arizona, which the Associated Press, which we use, has called for Biden but which some outlets have not called.
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What a gut-twisting nail-biter!

If B does squeak it out, T is sure to "go in with the lawyers" and contest all over the place.

This is worse than 4 years ago, either way, because everyone has seen the nature of the beast. And still about half want more. Whether out of naivety or malice, it's effectively as damning.
 
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Biden now 49% in Michigan, 81% of the votes counted.

If he gets Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, then that's it.
 
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323958121463795714

If the PA SOS page is accurate, then there are enough absentee votes left for Biden to win Pennsylvania

It's really quite simple. Biden's winning absentee ballots 78-21. The PA SOS says there are 1.4 million ballots left to count. If that's true, then Biden will net-800k votes, more than enough to over take the president
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Article embedded in first tweet.
 
The networks are not alone in wanting this dragged out. The states being contested see an immediate surge in economic activity as an army of journalists, lawyers, and public officials descend on multiple sites in each state. The more a state can be seen as contested, the more election cycles going forward they get this boost.

This also plays out politically. The Congressional delegations of these states will find warm welcome in their caucuses. They will be plied with select committee choices, invited to co-sponsor legislative initiatives, and get pork directed to their districts.

The counting continues, it's a laborious and uninteresting bit of procedure. I've worked entertainment/production enough to know, you have to hire side acts to keep the crowd in front of the stage while the drum kit is switched out and the front man is still MIA after saying he was going to have "just one shot real fast..."
 
Getting towards the back-end of the count in WI, with Biden still in the lead with some 30,000 votes. Curiously, that's fewer than the number of votes cast for the Libertarian candidate...
 
With Mark Kelly winning the seat in Arizona (probably why I confused it for Nevada earlier), how long before he is seated?

And unfortunately it appears that Susan Collins can continue to appear concerned, as she has a healthy lead in her race in Maine.
 
KDLarsen said:
With Mark Kelly winning the seat in Arizona (probably why I confused it for Nevada earlier), how long before he is seated?

And unfortunately it appears that Susan Collins can continue to appear concerned, as she has a healthy lead in her race in Maine.
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The calendar currently shows the 117th Congress convenes on Jan 3rd, 2021.
 
KDLarsen said:
The Arizona election was a special election to fill McCain's seat though, so my understanding is that he can be seated much earlier than that.
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Ah, I was thrown by the presence of an incumbent in the seat.

"Can be sworn in as soon as the election results are certified."

So it could go from now until Nov 30th, the deadline for the certification to be made.

I see the election results in Arizona are *checks notes* ehhooow...

We'll get back to you.
 
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