Of more than 2.7 million votes the Pennsylvania Department of State was reporting as counted shortly before 11:30 p.m. — still just a fraction of potentially up to seven million that may have been cast — 58% were for Trump and 41% for Biden.
There’s almost certainly no way the actual result ends up being close to those numbers, even if Trump wins Pennsylvania. (Trump won less than 58% of the vote in 2016, for example, in solidly Republican states such as Mississippi, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina.)
We don’t know when we’ll hit the deepest part of the so-called red mirage we’re in, as in-person results continue to pour in from across the state. At some point, the blue shift will generally move things back toward Biden’s direction as mail ballots are counted, but it won’t do smoothly. The numbers will continue to fluctuate and even to “flip.”
Some of Pennsylvania’s largest counties, for example, do not have their mail ballot numbers reflected in the state’s website. Those counties, including Philadelphia and Chester and Delaware Counties, make up a massive stronghold of Democratic votes.
