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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Well the board's open white supremacist is perfectly okay with opening fire on "protestors" (read "Brown people.")

That's not exactly surprising. But I wish others would acknowledge the company they are keeping.
 
Mader Levap said:
It is easier to vote against. IMO higher turnout is good sign for Biden (taking aside general view that higher turnout favors democrats on average).
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I think so, too. I think it means young people and minorities voting in higher percentages than they normally do.

However, I know that I have read news stories about Republicans recruiting first time voters to keep the evil socialists at bay. The next polls close eight hours from now, so we'll start to see some indications at that time.


On a related note, the change in turnout actually affects the poll predictions themselves. As people have been pointing out, polls aren't really polls anymore. In a poll, you ask people how they'll vote, and you add up your responses and those are your poll results. What really happens these days is that you ask a certain number of people, and you know that the voting population is made up of X% white, an Y% over 50 and whatever profile you know is voting. Then, if your samples don't match the percentage that's in the projecteed electorate, you "weight" your results, so that if there are not enough white males that responded, you multiply the responses by some factor so that the white males who did respond get extra weight in your final results.

So, there's an historical percentage of how many young people show up to vote. That's what the poll weights are based on. If a higher percentage of young people show up than what the pollsters expect, the weights will be wrong, and the results will be wrong.

This election is like no other before it, so I can't expect the polls to be correct.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
Anyone who is claiming they think the precautions are for right wing rioters is not being honest and/or serious, not sure which.

If Trump loses you'll see some whining, maybe hear about some guys in trucks somewhere honking a bit, and later you'll hear about the FBI stopping some militia group who planned to do something trivial and if you dig into it you'll find out the FBI actually put them up to it anyway.

If Trump wins, especially if it's close or there's any sort of disputed element, the left / Antifa / BLM will continue doing what they've done for months and they will burn and loot and commit violence.
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Looking at the terrorists the FBI arrested who were going to kidnap and/or murder the governor in Michigan, if they do arrest more of their kind the country will have lost no one of value. We can always get immigrants to replace their kind and they would be better Americans.
 
Mumbles said:
This is false - with the most notable examples being Boogaloo Boys, the Proud Boys, and in many cases the local police.
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For what it's worth, I had let that particular statement slide because I don't consider any of those groups to be "conservatives." Right-wing =/= conservative, after all. Also of note is that the preparations would be based on fears far more than objective assessments of reality, especially after both the MSM and right-wing media spent rather disproportionate time on the rioters during the protests.
 
TragicMonkey said:
I'm at my polling place, a school. I've never seen more than 50 people tops. The line today wraps the block. I'm at the far end of the football field! I estimate 800 or so in line ahead of me. This one is different.
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I'm in a comfortable suburb of Boston and showed up at 10:00am to find a line of maybe half a dozen. I imagine we have shorter lines because of more early voting, but I also imagine that this is a fairly privileged location.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Well the board's open white supremacist is perfectly okay with opening fire on "protestors" (read "Brown people.")
That's not exactly surprising. But I wish others would acknowledge the company they are keeping.
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Plenty of white antifa burning and destroying.
 
Craig4 said:
Looking at the terrorists the FBI arrested who were going to kidnap and/or murder the governor in Michigan, if they do arrest more of their kind the country will have lost no one of value. We can always get immigrants to replace their kind and they would be better Americans.
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The FBI is adept at finding misfit losers who they can insert an agent into, and start planting the seeds of "we should do ______" and then get the guys to eventually be talking about it enough that they decide its time to arrest them.

Based on what I've seen, that's exactly what happened with that incident about the governor. I don't think those fools were ever going to do anything.

The mastermind was an FBI agent putting them up to it. That's who the ringleader / main guy was, based on what I've read.

And these guys don't even seem to have really been right wing in any meaningful way, anyway. They were apparently anarchists who hated politicians on both sides, Trump included.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
That's me saying that when you have people who are burning cities down, throwing bricks at police's heads, attacking people they perceive to be the wrong political camp and/or wrong race and/or a business owner - and they've been doing this across the country for months, it isn't unreasonable to give the police / national guard orders to start firing at them with live rounds.

Because it isn't unreasonable. It's incredibly, breath-takingly basic and normal to suggest that.

It's actually remarkable that it wasn't done months ago. The great majority of these events happened BECAUSE it wasn't done.
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I just checked the dictionary for the definition of the word “protestor”.

None of the words you just used to describe it were there.
 
The Trumptrash seemed to do a pretty good job of rioting in Portland when the morons had their little parade of trucks.
 
The Don said:
Yup, as angrysoba points out, we're seeing exactly the same thing as happened last time around:

  • The polls generally narrowing significantly as polling approaches - which usually happens
  • Swing states changing even more than the national numbers in President Trump's favour
  • President Trump performing within the margin of error, but outperforming the polls by 1% to 3%
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No we are not.

538 has shown no significant change in polling averages in the past 3 days and shows Biden as a 90% favourite to win the White House. It still has him as a ~30% chance to win a landslide, *3 times more likely an outcome than Trump squeaking out an EC victory*

Swing states are tighter races, so they will be more swingy by definition, which doesn't indicate a great deal one way or the other.

We won't know how much Trump has under or over performed vs his polling averages fir a few days.

OTOH if they are presented with a less exciting candidate, Gore, Hillary, Dukakis, Kerry, then they'll stay at home.
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The GOP have put up an anti-rockstar candidate which means the Democrat voters are more than motivated to get out and vote. See early voting numbers to date.

I still think this is a landslide Biden win. I agree with theatheist that polls might well undercount young voters who generally favour Biden.

I still think Texas might flip blue. Its going to be that big a win.

Trump his cooked. Polling is more science than art and the polls are highly unlikely to be that far wrong again.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
The FBI is adept at finding misfit losers who they can insert an agent into, and start planting the seeds of "we should do ______" and then get the guys to eventually be talking about it enough that they decide its time to arrest them.

Based on what I've seen, that's exactly what happened with that incident about the governor. I don't think those fools were ever going to do anything.

The mastermind was an FBI agent putting them up to it. That's who the ringleader / main guy was, based on what I've read.

And these guys don't even seem to have really been right wing in any meaningful way, anyway. They were apparently anarchists who hated politicians on both sides, Trump included.
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One of them was anti Trump. Another made a pro Trump video. As for your lie about the FBI agent putting them up to it, I'll take the word of the US Attorney over some white supremacist thanks. White supremacists have certain issues with the claims they make if you follow my meaning.
 
Craig4 said:
The Trumptrash seemed to do a pretty good job of rioting in Portland when the morons had their little parade of trucks.
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Right, but we can’t know with any degree of certainty that those people are right wingers or Trump supporters. Also, the FBI probably tricked them.

However, anyone who throws a brick through a window is a 100% certified Antifa super soldier personally trained by Obama at his hidden lair inside of a volcano.
 
johnny karate said:
We don’t need to use “talking points“. We can use aggregated data. It paints a pretty clear picture of where the majority of the violence is coming from, and it’s not antifa window-breakers.
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Or maybe I'm talking about the olden days of yore, i.e the 2017 Congressional baseball shooting.


Aridas said:
While it's entirely reasonable to say that businesses boarding up in NYC are far more concerned about Trump winning outrage than Biden winning outrage... trying to create a false equivalence isn't going to help your case on that point. There really is no honest equivalence to be found between the left and right when it comes to extremist killings and violence.
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I have not tried to create a false equivalence. It's just other posters adding whataboutism's they think prove some point that wasn't being made. I made an observation that is obvious, and I hate the idea everyone has to tip toe around the obvious.


Aridas said:
I'm not coming up with anything close, either, really, in recent history. And that's fundamentally one of the main reasons that Trump really needs to be gone.

With that said, though, I feel like poking at a couple headlines/articles -

On this day 100 years ago, a White mob unleashed the deadliest Election Day violence in US history

And...

Violence Has Long Been a Feature of American Elections

In America's past, efforts by disadvantaged citizens to secure greater political influence have been met with violent repression
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Ya political violence 100+ years ago was definitely the norm, especially in regards to black Americans voting or gaining political positions. What's scary are the countless stories that we probably will never know about because the victims weren't around after to tell their side.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
That's me saying that when you have people who are burning cities down, throwing bricks at police's heads, attacking people they perceive to be the wrong political camp and/or wrong race and/or a business owner - and they've been doing this across the country for months, it isn't unreasonable to give the police / national guard orders to start firing at them with live rounds.

Because it isn't unreasonable. It's incredibly, breath-takingly basic and normal to suggest that.

It's actually remarkable that it wasn't done months ago. The great majority of these events happened BECAUSE it wasn't done.
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And that's where the disconnect seems to lie. What you say would be much more reasonable if your premises were actually meaningfully true. They're not.

In Portland, for example, the Feds were sent in over GRAFFITI in what was fairly certainly nothing more than a political stunt to try to make things escalate. Across the country, for that matter, police used tactics that have long been known to create and escalate violence among peaceful citizens exercising their 1st Amendment rights, with most right wing media actively working to do anything they could to make Republicans look better and Democrats look worse, with little regard for truth or principle. Right-wingers go far out of their way and murder cops? Not news. Right-wingers go far out of their way and murder peaceful citizens exercising their 1st Amendment rights? Obviously those right-wingers were justified in doing so. Left-winger ends up killing a right-winger who was actively looking to do harm? Time for an extrajudicial execution.

Before you lecture others about the speck in their eye, get the friggin plank out of your own.
 
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rdwight said:
This is NYC I'm talking about. They can be preparing for a Trump victory or a Trump loss, but either way it's not Trump supporters they are boarding up in response to. If the reality around that changes I will be glad to accept it, but until then I don't see a need to avoid the obvious.





Yes, only right wingers have attempted to kill elected officials. We should definitely ignore any events that happened in recent memory where that was not the case, because if we don't than we can't use that talking point.


Not directed at anyone in particular but the first part of my question seemed to be glossed over. Does anyone have memory of an election with this kind of preparation for violence due to the results? I am probably at the younger end of the posters here but I can't think of anything remotely close.
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We can argue about who might riot. But the real question is WHY. And it's obviously because of Trump. It's not a question of Biden winning or losing. It's about Trump winning or losing. Trump lies at the core of what stresses all in this election.
 
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