2020 Presidential Election

[angrysoba]

I thought on that rhetorical question more and concluded it is not about ignorance. Trump supporters simply do not care about daily river of lies spurting forth out of Trump's orifice.

This drivel in Trump's tweets is not designed to convince anyone. Not at this stage, at least. It is something between rally under flag and tantrum of someone that knows he will most likely lose.

There is a picture which probably sums up the administration as a whole:

It's the quintessence of the Trump administration. The brazenness of the ********, the supineness of other agencies in the executive branch in going along with this nonsense, the lack of seriousness with which he treats natural disasters and the fact that it always has to be about him, all the time, and his inability to say something along the lines of "Oh, it seems I mis-spoke" and his instinct to double down on it instead. It also has exactly the right measure of comedy and bone-chilling surrealism.

 

[SezMe]

Damn. I had faith in Biden's chances in Iowa.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...s-lead-biden-days-before-election/6109299002/

I believe the same trend will happen in all the other red states that the Dems have high hopes for. A lot of people who don't much care about politics will pull the lever the same as they always do. I do think Biden will win but there may be some "Oops, we goofed!" at the state level.

 

[SezMe]

There is a picture which probably sums up the administration as a whole:

[qimg]https://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2019/09/05/ba7bf162-3c21-4a60-80e1-67f29534fa53/thumbnail/640x360/e213de32674b6f16ebae3bf8c0a497c4/0905-ctm-trumpweatherreport-tracy-1927211-640x360.jpg[/qimg]

I wonder what happened to that map. I'll bet it would sell for more than $1mil.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I wonder what happened to that map. I'll bet it would sell for more than $1mil.

Oh... oh God you're right. Trump's going to be the first President to run a post-administration auction isn't he?

 

[phiwum]

Love to me some testable predictions. Put a time window and a language criteria on it, and I'm up for an avatar bet. What do you say?

I don't do avatar bets, but depending on what counts as "demanding the counting cease", I'm tempted to take you up on it.

Does a tweet that counting should stop and the numbers reported late on Nov. 3/early Nov. 4 meet the criteria for demanding that counting should stop? I'm almost certain he'll go that far.

I don't know whether he will go farther than that. For years, he's been calling for his political opponents (and former opponents) to be arrested, but he's never done anything about it.

 

[JoeMorgue]

It's as if they think democracy is evil. They hate the fact that "the wrong kinds of people" are allowed to vote.

In her spectacular essay The Fight is for Democracy Ezra Klein phrased it perfectly:

"They fear that Democratic efforts to expand the franchise and make voting an easily exercised right rather than a politically metered privilege will spell their long-term demise. They believe that mass democracy is inimical to their interests, and they state that fact baldly."

 

[jnelso99]

Oh... oh God you're right. Trump's going to be the first President to run a post-administration auction isn't he?

I'm sure it will go into the Trump Presidential Library, along with thousands of printouts of badly spelled, grammatically incorrect and incoherent Tweets written by Trump, and thousands of "proper English" Tweets written by someone else.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Damn. I had faith in Biden's chances in Iowa.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...s-lead-biden-days-before-election/6109299002/

Neither of the two sites I've been monitoring, 538 and Financial Times, have ever given Biden a lead in Iowa.

Why do you think he'd win there or that he needed those 6 EC votes?

Trump has to win both Florida and Pennsylvania. Biden only needs one of those and if he loses both, Biden can still win with two out of four: Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona. Add in Nevada and Biden only needs one of these three: Ohio, Georgia, or North Carolina.

Trump needs ~140 EC votes in addition to the states he's got a small or better margin in. Biden only needs the states he has a small or better margin in.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

538 has similar numbers.

Trump's only path to winning is trying to suppress votes in multiple states and hope the SCOTUS installs him with rulings in state after state. That's a lot of ifs.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Iowa is very invested in the idea that it's a political litmus test.

Honestly, as long as it leads to the proper outcome and an "as sane as can be reasonably hoped for at this point" transition I want to see some of the classic swing stats swing the wrong way. If we're stuck with an EC at least let the states who's asses we have to kiss change more often.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

....
Whoops, turns out that when one party is outright putting up roadblocks to black voters, black people all notice anyway, and they also notice when dems do nothing to stop them.

What specifically are the Democrats not doing to stop the voter suppression?

 

[CapelDodger]

I'll stake my reputation on there never being a Trump concession speech. I find the event simply unimaginable. Picturing him welcoming Biden to the White House as departing Presidents traditionally do is a stretch, but it would put him on-camera so cannot be dismissed out-of-hand. Admission that he's a loser can.


Whatever happens, about a third of the US electorate will believe the result to be illegitimate. That can't be good.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I wonder what happened to that map. I'll bet it would sell for more than $1mil.

10K max and even that's a stretch.

 

[JoeMorgue]

The concession speech. The fully peaceful transition of power. The departing note to your successor. Maintaining dialogs with former Presidents because no matter how different your politics are there are at least perspectives to be gained. Former Presidents just going off to lead (usually deserved) quiet lives mostly outside the public eye.

We're not going to get any of those things with Trump.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Iowa is very invested in the idea that it's a political litmus test.

Honestly, as long as it leads to the proper outcome and an "as sane as can be reasonably hoped for at this point" transition I want to see some of the classic swing stats swing the wrong way. If we're stuck with an EC at least let the states who's asses we have to kiss change more often.

That's pretty meaningless this go round, don't you think?

 

[JoeMorgue]

That's pretty meaningless this go round, don't you think?

With the hopefully obvious caveat that Yes of course A) maintaining the integrity of our election process and B) voting Trump out of office are my primary hopes/goals by a huge margin, sorta kinda.

We wouldn't have Trump with EC shenanigans, so I can't fully separate him from this. If 2020 goes down to the wire in a few states I think it would be better if those few states are at least new players in the game.

 

[angrysoba]

Iowa is very invested in the idea that it's a political litmus test..

It is, until it isn't.

 

[StillSleepy]

Neither of the two sites I've been monitoring, 538 and Financial Times, have ever given Biden a lead in Iowa.

Why do you think he'd win there or that he needed those 6 EC votes?

Trump has to win both Florida and Pennsylvania. Biden only needs one of those and if he loses both, Biden can still win with two out of four: Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona. Add in Nevada and Biden only needs one of these three: Ohio, Georgia, or North Carolina.

Trump needs ~140 EC votes in addition to the states he's got a small or better margin in. Biden only needs the states he has a small or better margin in.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

538 has similar numbers.

Trump's only path to winning is trying to suppress votes in multiple states and hope the SCOTUS installs him with rulings in state after state. That's a lot of ifs.

I'm a bit disappointed about Iowa as well, though I wasn't as hopeful this election, given that it was my home state and that it flipped blue twice for Obama.

 

[Venom]

I had faith.

 

[CapelDodger]

I think the chance that Trump declares himself the winner some time before Tuesday midnight is about the same as the chance that the sun will rise in the East Tuesday morning. But, like acbytesla, I won't bet on it.

I'll stake my reputation on there never being a Trump concession speech. I find the event simply unimaginable.

 

[Venom]

The concession speech. The fully peaceful transition of power. The departing note to your successor. Maintaining dialogs with former Presidents because no matter how different your politics are there are at least perspectives to be gained. Former Presidents just going off to lead (usually deserved) quiet lives mostly outside the public eye.

We're not going to get any of those things with Trump.

Can you imagine Trump walking Biden down the halls of the White House followed a long deep conversation in the garden before handing him the keys to the front door?

Mind is blown just thinking of that.