2020 Presidential Election

[SezMe]

....

I've been reading about why this year's polling is different, and I haven't read any article that says, "People who vote for Trump are less likely to tell that to pollsters." But it's true.<snip>.

How do you know it's true?

 

[Dr.Sid]

Biden is polling ahead in all swing states but Ohio. It's not an unreasonable prediction. This election is *NOT* a rerun of 2016; that's where your error is.

Why do you need such statement ? 538 says the chance is 10%. It means there is a chance. It is withing error of the polls. At the moment you just can't say Biden will win. It would be, above all else, unskeptical.

 

[Ambrosia]

I think that in swing states there are a *LOT* of Republicans, and Republican-leaning independents who are either tight-lipped or who are telling pollsters that they are not voting for President Trump who will end up voting for him on election day. They're split between those people who genuinely think they will vote for Biden but will switch at the last minute, and those who don't want to broadcast their support for President Trump.

Based on what evidence?

Nate Silver in his most recent podcast says he thinks the "shy Republican" hypothesis is basically rubbish. He thinks republicans might be shy about reasons to vote for Trump and rationalise away racism, or trolling the libs with ******** reasons
But not be shy about who they plan to vote for.

He has his opinion, you have yours, I'm siding with Nate on this one.

Trump is done. He's an incumbent with a record now, and his record is awful. He can't credibly play the outsider "vote for me and I'll change the system" card this time.

Thats why he will lose. People know what they are getting and not enough people want 4 more years of that.

 

[angrysoba]

Why do you need such statement ? 538 says the chance is 10%. It means there is a chance. It is withing error of the polls. At the moment you just can't say Biden will win. It would be, above all else, unskeptical.

Ummm, nobody is saying "Biden will win". People are saying he has a 90% chance.

 

[angrysoba]

I think that whilst fivethirtyeight are doing their best to reflect the polls, and if the polls were accurate then their forecast will be accurate, their forecast is vastly underestimating President Trump's probability of victory.

I think that in swing states there are a *LOT* of Republicans, and Republican-leaning independents who are either tight-lipped or who are telling pollsters that they are not voting for President Trump who will end up voting for him on election day. They're split between those people who genuinely think they will vote for Biden but will switch at the last minute, and those who don't want to broadcast their support for President Trump.

538 don't merely reflect the polls. They weight the polls according to track record etc... and they still (as far as I know) build into their model an idea that the polls will narrow, so in that sense they have built in some extra percentage for Trump.

As Ambrosia says, Silver is skeptical of the shy Trump voter thesis.

I also think that the Republicans will be very effective at challenging and overturning tight results in swing states and I don't think fivethirtyeight's forecast can reasonably take into account post-election activity like this. President Trump can lose both the popular vote and Electoral College and still win the election.

That's not contained in the model. Nor is nuclear war, nor alien invasion.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I agree that there are probably not that many shy Trump voters, since they won last time and are being told by Trump, Fox, QANN and Q that only they are on the right side of history.

But especially in Red States, there are probably a number of shy Biden voters who won't alienate their social circle by admitting to have gone to the baby-killing satanists' side.

 

[angrysoba]

I agree that there are probably not that many shy Trump voters, since they won last time and are being told by Trump, Fox, QANN and Q that only they are on the right side of history.

But especially in Red States, there are probably a number of shy Biden voters who won't alienate their social circle by admitting to have gone to the baby-killing satanists' side.

Yes, indeed. And let’s face it, Trump voters - at least stereotypically - are hardly a shy bunch of wallflowers.

One of the things that many people here said was that Trump will embolden racists to be more overt and showed figures saying there are more complaints about racist comments these days. If Trump is emboldening them so much why are the same people now declaring that they are shy and retiring?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump tweets

Suburban Women are trending strongly to our campaign because they want SAFETY, SECURITY, and love the fact that I terminated the REGULATION that would destroy their neighborhood and with it, the American Dream. Biden would bring the REGULATION back in a MUCH stronger form!!!

“A Biden win would mean the end of Fracking in Pennsylvania, Texas, and everywhere else. Millions of jobs would be lost, and Energy prices would soar.” @OANN And we would no longer be Energy Independent!!!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Trump supporters hardly seem shy. They wear hats, wave huge Trump flags and threaten people with guns. Shy? I don't think so.

Yeah, there's never really been such a thing as a "shy Tory" no matter how much the media bigs the concept up.

 

[llwyd]

I think that whilst fivethirtyeight are doing their best to reflect the polls

Well, it's nice that you can by mere thinking produce a better forecast than the professionals, and with your forecast (and thinking) I mean PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC THE END IS NIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Craig4]

I think that whilst fivethirtyeight are doing their best to reflect the polls, and if the polls were accurate then their forecast will be accurate, their forecast is vastly underestimating President Trump's probability of victory.

I think that in swing states there are a *LOT* of Republicans, and Republican-leaning independents who are either tight-lipped or who are telling pollsters that they are not voting for President Trump who will end up voting for him on election day. They're split between those people who genuinely think they will vote for Biden but will switch at the last minute, and those who don't want to broadcast their support for President Trump.

I also think that the Republicans will be very effective at challenging and overturning tight results in swing states and I don't think fivethirtyeight's forecast can reasonably take into account post-election activity like this. President Trump can lose both the popular vote and Electoral College and still win the election.

Clinton under performed the polls within the margin of error. If Biden under performs the polls within the margin of error, he's still ahead in the blue wall states by at least five points. Trump may have a really dedicated cult following but he also has a very angry country to contend with.

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

Trump tweets

Suburban Women are trending strongly to our campaign because they want SAFETY, SECURITY, and love the fact that I terminated the REGULATION that would destroy their neighborhood and with it, the American Dream. Biden would bring the REGULATION back in a MUCH stronger form!!!

“A Biden win would mean the end of Fracking in Pennsylvania, Texas, and everywhere else. Millions of jobs would be lost, and Energy prices would soar.” @OANN And we would no longer be Energy Independent!!!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Exxon said, I think, that they wrote of 30 billion from taxes this year for fracking operations. I assume after the elections that they will pull the plug regardless of who wins.

 

[Aridas]

The great finding of why the poll results went wrong last time was that there were a bunch of states that were solid for Trump, and a bunch of states that were solid for Clinton, and some states left over that were too close to call from the polls.

FFIW, 538 has an article that delves into a relevant, but oft ignored part of the subject a bit more deeply that may be worth a look for those more interested.

The Polls Are All Right
Election polls sometimes get the answer wrong — but they’re about as accurate as they’ve always been.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

“President Obama meant a lot to Black people, but he didn’t do a thing for Black people”. Vernon Jones, Georgia State Represenative, Trump supporter.
@ffweekend

Biden and the Radical Left are asking for the largest tax hike in the history of the U.S. Remember that when you VOTE!

Joe Biden will PACK THE COURT. Also, he never gave the answer who his Radical Left Justices will be!

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Fascinating comments from a spectrum of foreign correspondents based in DC regarding this election. All "fake news deep state liars" in Banana Republicanese, otherwise known as "professional journalists" in modern English.

 

[Mumbles]

Trump tweets

Suburban Women are trending strongly to our campaign because they want SAFETY, SECURITY, and love the fact that I terminated the REGULATION that would destroy their neighborhood and with it, the American Dream. Biden would bring the REGULATION back in a MUCH stronger form!!!!

I mean, I suppose it's natural for Toupee Fiasco to assume that Cory Booker would become secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and that "suburban women" would be terrified of the...um...handsome unmarried black guy who literally rescued a neighbor from a house fire, what with him being a colored.

We're discussing the clown who gave the HUD post to noted housing planner Benjamin Carson, almost certainly for that exact reason, after all.

personally, I have no clue if Booker would accept the job if offered -he's certainly qualified as a big-city mayor, and does have some good ideas, but he can also advance those and other ideas in the Senate.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

Vote for @NancyMace! Her opponent, Joe Cunningham, is a puppet for Nancy Pelosi and the Radical Left! #SC01

Gallup: 56% of the U.S. is more satisfied with conditions now, even during a pandemic (we are rounding the turn!), than they were 4 years ago under Obama/Biden. Hasn’t been equaled in recent times!

 

[Sherkeu]

Yes, indeed. And let’s face it, Trump voters - at least stereotypically - are hardly a shy bunch of wallflowers.

One of the things that many people here said was that Trump will embolden racists to be more overt and showed figures saying there are more complaints about racist comments these days. If Trump is emboldening them so much why are the same people now declaring that they are shy and retiring?

Shy to pollsters. A big flag on their truck does not mean a person answers a survey.
A Trump voter is much less likely to respond honestly (or at all) to a political poll. From what I have seen, there are quite a few 'poll punkers' as well.

Trump constantly call the polls 'fake', unless he likes them, so this should not be any surprise to anyone. Polling is really hard to do this year, no matter how they think they have corrected it.

 

[Darat]

Trump Tweets

Vote for @NancyMace! Her opponent, Joe Cunningham, is a puppet for Nancy Pelosi and the Radical Left! #SC01

Gallup: 56% of the U.S. is more satisfied with conditions now, even during a pandemic (we are rounding the turn!), than they were 4 years ago under Obama/Biden. Hasn’t been equaled in recent times!

Typical Trump he mistakenly says "rounding the turn" and can't even bring himself to correct himself.

 

[Horatius]

Typical Trump he mistakenly says "rounding the turn" and can't even bring himself to correct himself.

And don't even get me started on "The cure can't be worse than the problem".


Goddamn it, it's "The cure is worse than the disease"!!! And it's not even a metaphor, we're dealing with an ACTUAL DISEASE YOU MUPPET!!!!