2020 Presidential Election

[Skeptic Ginger]

Apparently there's a poll that shows the orange ghoul ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan?

I'm not seeing it.

 

[dudalb]

Yes, but as the article says, the early voting numbers are much lower than expected in some key districts. It seems that in Florida, the demographics that the Democrats are depending on in key districts are not voting. Of course they could turn out on the day but it's more likely that the GOP will get their voters out.

It seems that, thanks to Covid-19, the Democrats' "ground game" is next to non-existent.

Or maybe you are just finding new justifications for being a constant Cassandra here?

 

[Meadmaker]

The number of early votes should mean the election is pretty well over as soon as the first results are issued.

Most states do not allow counting of votes until the polls close, and absentee ballots take longer to count than regular ballots.

For regular ballots, they typically have a stack of ballots at a precinct. They run them through the machine. If any are not counted, they check them by hand to see if there are legal votes on them. The tally them up, prepare a report to the county clerk, and that's reporting. They then put the ballots in envelopes and take them to the clerk's office where they are stored.

Procedures vary slightly from precinct to precinct, and with laws and policies of counties and states, but that's basically it.


For absentee ballots, it varies from one state to another, but in Michigan, those are still sitting in individual envelopes, unopened, and will remain like that until 8 pm Tuesday night. They will have to open those envelopes one at a time, determine if it's a legal vote. Figure out which precinct it belongs to, and how to count them, then combine things with the day's tally from the precinct. It's a lot harder and a lot slower. Most places report the precinct tallies before the absentees are counted, but in a normal year a precinct might have 300 election day ballots, and a dozen absentees. This year, over half the votes will be absentee.

And then there's the results announced on television. They've been doing exit polls all day. They compare the results of the polls to the first few precincts that report, make sure that they're close, and report based on the exit polls. However, this year, most people won't be exit polled at all, because people like me dropped off my ballot in the middle of the afternoon.

It's going to be a long night. If it's a Biden landslide, that will become fairly obvious early on, and we can rest easy, even if they don't actually project the swing states until much later. If it's close, then don't drink all that stuff too early. You might pass out before the winner's announced.

 

[Galaxie]

Wasn't he winning there anyway?

Yes, it was a dumb joke.

I see Favre will be a guest at Trump's Green Bay rally.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

That percentage seems implausibly high. The nation is strongly and evenly divided, in the last election. This seems like predicting a number of close elections will break Biden's way.

I can see guessing that Florida is likely to go to Biden. But guessing that there's a 90% chance that all of the swing states will go to Biden seems a bit much.

Biden doesn't need all the swing states. He needs PA or AZ or NC or FL of GA or OH or TX. He basically wins with ANY of those. Sort of. AZ, GA, NC won't necessarily tip the scales.

Trump needs TX, OH, GA, FL, NC, AZ, and PA. He basically needs to win ALL of those to win.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Most states do not allow counting of votes until the polls close, and absentee ballots take longer to count than regular ballots.

For regular ballots, they typically have a stack of ballots at a precinct. They run them through the machine. If any are not counted, they check them by hand to see if there are legal votes on them. The tally them up, prepare a report to the county clerk, and that's reporting. They then put the ballots in envelopes and take them to the clerk's office where they are stored.

Procedures vary slightly from precinct to precinct, and with laws and policies of counties and states, but that's basically it.


For absentee ballots, it varies from one state to another, but in Michigan, those are still sitting in individual envelopes, unopened, and will remain like that until 8 pm Tuesday night. They will have to open those envelopes one at a time, determine if it's a legal vote. Figure out which precinct it belongs to, and how to count them, then combine things with the day's tally from the precinct. It's a lot harder and a lot slower. Most places report the precinct tallies before the absentees are counted, but in a normal year a precinct might have 300 election day ballots, and a dozen absentees. This year, over half the votes will be absentee.

And then there's the results announced on television. They've been doing exit polls all day. They compare the results of the polls to the first few precincts that report, make sure that they're close, and report based on the exit polls. However, this year, most people won't be exit polled at all, because people like me dropped off my ballot in the middle of the afternoon.

It's going to be a long night. If it's a Biden landslide, that will become fairly obvious early on, and we can rest easy, even if they don't actually project the swing states until much later. If it's close, then don't drink all that stuff too early. You might pass out before the winner's announced.

At least some if not all absentee ballots, once out of the envelope, go through counting machines as well.

 

[Meadmaker]

That percentage seems implausibly high. The nation is strongly and evenly divided, in the last election. This seems like predicting a number of close elections will break Biden's way.

I can see guessing that Florida is likely to go to Biden. But guessing that there's a 90% chance that all of the swing states will go to Biden seems a bit much.

The great finding of why the poll results went wrong last time was that there were a bunch of states that were solid for Trump, and a bunch of states that were solid for Clinton, and some states left over that were too close to call from the polls.

If you treat each of those too close to call places independently, it would have to be the case that nearly all of them broke for Trump, so the chance of him winning enough states was too small. They would all have to break the same way.

Or.......there would have to be some systemic error in the way the polls were conducted that consistently favored Hillary. The pollsters didn't think that was worth worrying about, but it turns out they were wrong. That was the great revelation of 2016.

I've been reading about why this year's polling is different, and I haven't read any article that says, "People who vote for Trump are less likely to tell that to pollsters." But it's true. So, I don't trust the polls at all. I've read about how they make up their models, and they think they've compensated, but they're wrong. None of the articles are saying, "Our numbers are junk because everyone's in a foul mood these days and they never answer the phone unless it's one of their friends."

You would think they would figure these things out, and perhaps they have, but the explanations that I've read are just plain wrong, so I hope their actual models that are run behind the scenes are better. At any rate, I won't believe any poll results until they start matching up with actual reported vote counts.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

I can see guessing that Florida is likely to go to Biden. But guessing that there's a 90% chance that all of the swing states will go to Biden seems a bit much.

If Florida goes to Biden, Trump would have to win EVERY swing state to win (excluding improbable states like MN, NH, and NV).

 

[The Atheist]

Apparently there's a poll that shows the orange ghoul ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan?

I'm sure there are plenty - probably a phone-in off a Fox affiliate.

That percentage seems implausibly high.

Wishful thinking by you - Biden wins in a landslide, or close to it. Your boy is dead.

Most states do not allow counting of votes until the polls close, and absentee ballots take longer to count than regular ballots.

Sorry mate, but you clearly didn't click the link - you're wrong, according to the states' own rules. 34 states count early votes before the polls close.

Given the massive early vote, absentee ballots will be a big nothing.

 

[Meadmaker]

Biden doesn't need all the swing states. He needs PA or AZ or NC or FL of GA or OH or TX. He basically wins with ANY of those. Sort of. AZ, GA, NC won't necessarily tip the scales.

Trump needs TX, OH, GA, FL, NC, AZ, and PA. He basically needs to win ALL of those to win.

The way I see it, if Biden gets Georgia, he's going to run the table.

If Trump gets OH, he will get every one of those on his list except, possibly, PA.

The wild card this year is Texas. It's hard for me to believe that Texas is "in play", but voter turnout pre-election has been huge. That could be a game changer. If through the magic of enhanced voter turnout, Biden wins Texas, that's pretty much game over.

At any rate, these states aren't independent. If one of the just barely swing states, like Georgia, goes blue, it will mean that there really is widespread dissatisfaction with Trump, and that dissatisfaction will appear everywhere, not just Georgia. If Trump support remains strong in Ohio, it means people are still fed up with Democrats and aren't blaming Trump for the pandemic. Georgia et. al. will certainly go to Trump if Ohio goes.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

I've been reading about why this year's polling is different

I think a major factor is Gary Johnson. If you look at 538 projections for 2016, Clinton is leading in the blue wall rust belt states by about 4-5 points. But they give about 3-6 points to Johnson.

That didn't happen. Johnson got about half of that. Those Johnson poll votes most likely went to Trump. That gave Trump a bump up in 2-5 points.

That was enough to move a likely win to a toss up. And Trump won the toss ups.

That third party factor is not in play this election. That means the polls should be much more accurate.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

If Trump gets OH, he will get every one of those on his list except, possibly, PA..

Then he loses. If he gets every one on his list, he has to also get PA. Or one of WI, MN, or MI. But 538 has, what I think a reasonable odd, less than a 6% chance of that happening.

The wild card this year is Texas. It's hard for me to believe that Texas is "in play", but voter turnout pre-election has been huge. That could be a game changer. If through the magic of enhanced voter turnout, Biden wins Texas, that's pretty much game over.

I have been predicting that Texas will eventually go Blue. This is sooner than I expected. But not terribly surprising. If Biden wins Texas it is the end of Republican party as we know it. Although I think Trump is a last grasp, and the party will have to reform anyway. It is just a question of how long that can be delayed.

 

[Meadmaker]

Sorry mate, but you clearly didn't click the link - you're wrong, according to the states' own rules. 34 states count early votes before the polls close.

Given the massive early vote, absentee ballots will be a big nothing.

I hadn't clicked it, but I went back and did it. You are confusing "processing" with "counting". From the link:

Some states allow the “processing” of mail-in ballots — the often time-consuming flattening and opening of envelopes, verifying signatures and sorting ballots into the correct piles for tabulation — to begin as many as three weeks before Election Day. Some only allow it to begin on Election Day itself, which can lead to a chaotic and lengthy count.

So, 34 states allow that to happen before the polls close, but that doesn't mean those votes are counted. They are just processed. That saves some time, but for states where votes can be processed on election day, will there be election workers who can even do all of that work by the time the polls close? Stay tuned. It won't be like any other election night.

Also from the link:

A POLITICO review of ballot processing timelines in 13 battleground states last month found that three critical Great Lakes battlegrounds — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — did not allow election administrators to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day.

Similar efforts to allow for more processing time in Pennsylvania have seemingly stalled, while any electoral changes in Wisconsin seem to be a non-starter.

Michigan changed the law earlier this month. (I just found out when googling tonight) Clerks can begin processing, but not counting, ballots the day before the election, but our Secretary of State is saying that they expect all the counting to be done Friday.

 

[acbytesla]

The way I see it, if Biden gets Georgia, he's going to run the table.

If Trump gets OH, he will get every one of those on his list except, possibly, PA.

The wild card this year is Texas. It's hard for me to believe that Texas is "in play", but voter turnout pre-election has been huge. That could be a game changer. If through the magic of enhanced voter turnout, Biden wins Texas, that's pretty much game over.

At any rate, these states aren't independent. If one of the just barely swing states, like Georgia, goes blue, it will mean that there really is widespread dissatisfaction with Trump, and that dissatisfaction will appear everywhere, not just Georgia. If Trump support remains strong in Ohio, it means people are still fed up with Democrats and aren't blaming Trump for the pandemic. Georgia et. al. will certainly go to Trump if Ohio goes.

No, Ohio isn't a bellwether. I think Trump is more likely to win Ohiio than North Carolina or Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin or Florida.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

... The nation is strongly and evenly divided, in the last election. ..

'Is now' or 'was in the last election'? Your sentence is bungled.

The nation is in no way evenly divided now.

It maybe was when Trump barely won by the EC count and lost by a large margin in the popular vote. Claiming now the nation was evenly divided then is a stretch.

Currently, it's unevenly divided by quite a bit. You have one candidate doing everything he can to throttle votes in hopes he might win. He has remained consistently behind in the polls for well over a month.

You think this massive voter turnout represents voters for and against Trump? Think again. The massive turnout is because so many people are appalled with Trump's presidency.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Most states do not allow counting of votes until the polls close, and absentee ballots take longer to count than regular ballots.

They don't release the results until polls close, and the news media tries to refrain from announcing the winners until polls close in the west.

Some states might not allow votes to be tallied until the polls close.

 

[acbytesla]

'Is now' or 'was in the last election'? Your sentence is bungled.

The nation is in no way evenly divided now.

It maybe was when Trump barely won by the EC count and lost by a large margin in the popular vote. Claiming now the nation was evenly divided then is a stretch.

Currently, it's unevenly divided by quite a bit. You have one candidate doing everything he can to throttle votes in hopes he might win. He has remained consistently behind in the polls for well over a 6 months.

You think this massive voter turnout represents voters for and against Trump? Think again. The massive turnout is because so many people are appalled with Trump's presidency.

FTFY

 

[Meadmaker]

No, Ohio isn't a bellwether. I think Trump is more likely to win Ohiio than North Carolina or Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin or Florida.

That would be a change from previous years. There have been several times when Ohio was red and Michigan is blue, but there has never been an election in my lifetime when Ohio was blue and Michigan red.

(Now I might have to go back and look that up to see if I'm right.)

ETA: 1976. Michigan went for favorite son Gerald Ford. The site 270towin has some very easy to read voting histories of states.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

FTFY

Thanks, I didn't want to look it up.

 

[acbytesla]

That would be a change from previous years. There have been several times when Ohio was red and Michigan is blue, but there has never been an election in my lifetime when Ohio was blue and Michigan red.

(Now I might have to go back and look that up to see if I'm right.)

I don't know if that's true but every time. I've checked the polls this year, Trump has been leading in Ohio by a point or two or it's been a dead heat. That hasn't been true when I have checked Michigan. Every time Biden has been leading there. Not by a lot. But leading.