Will Trump be re-elected?

Will trump be re-elected?

  • Yes

    Votes: 28 14.5%

  • No

    Votes: 80 41.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope not

    Votes: 82 42.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope he does

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • Total voters
    193
The pure symbolism of California, Texas, Florida, and New York all voting for the same President would give us a cultural message not seen since Reagan.

Florida's a maybe leaning toward probably. Texas is a longshot but closer then it has been in a while.

As to the polling I, honestly with no snark, do think the major pollsters (who I understand weren't "wrong" in the way often think they were wrong about 2016) have put valid effort into adjusting for the polling errors in 2016, that's not the same thing as having full confidence that they have adjusted for the polling errors in 2016.
 
Last edited:
Craig4 said:
I know it's risky but I'm going to call a Biden win at 357 EVs. Biden will outperform the polls in Texas where he's only down by .5 percent in the aggregate polls. He'll also carry Florida.
Click to expand...

I want to amend my expectation to at least 357. My figure did not take into account the possibility of Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio being American victories. I still think America will carry the Blue Wall plus Florida and Texas.
 
Worst-case scenario -- Biden dies before the election. I know it's still possible for him to be elected anyway but I'd find it highly unlikely. Penultimate worst-case -- he gets a bad case of Covid-19.

After the election either wouldn't matter so much as I believe there are processes in place and I think Harris would take over, but I'm not 100% sure of that.
 
Trebuchet said:
He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
Click to expand...

I get the joke, but the SCotUS can't actually elect the President. What they can do it is rule in such a way that it throws out enough races for the Electoral College to become contested, or neither candidate has the required 270 votes. At that point, the decision goes to Congress where the Republicans hold the required 26 of 50 votes resulting in a 26 to 22, with 2 abstentions, vote to Trump.
 
PhantomWolf said:
I get the joke, but the SCotUS can't actually elect the President. What they can do it is rule in such a way that it throws out enough races for the Electoral College to become contested, or neither candidate has the required 270 votes. At that point, the decision goes to Congress where the Republicans hold the required 26 of 50 votes resulting in a 26 to 22, with 2 abstentions, vote to Trump.
Click to expand...
The SCOTUS already made W Bush President 20 years ago.
 
Trump will win the EC, Biden will win the popular vote.

If you look at the poll margins just for the swing states and look at the actual number of people that represents, it is not very many.

While both parties have voter databases for targeted campaigning the GOP seem to have more sophisticated tools to use this.

People influenced by these kinds of campaign are not necessarily spread evenly among the population and will not necessarily show up in polling.

Likely there will be a blitz on evangelicals and Catholics in the swing states to the effect that Biden is going to bias the Supreme Court back to Liberals, whereas Trump will move it even farther to the right.

If Trump convinces, maybe, 0.1% of that group to vote who wouldn't normally vote in the swing states, then he has this election sewn up.
 
Last edited:
Trebuchet said:
He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
Click to expand...

SO you are writing off the US as a Democracy.
I am not convinced the SUpreme Court is quite as biased as you think it is
And I think you have become a bit emotionally invested in being a Cassandra.
 
Last edited:
Trebuchet said:
That was a fluke. This will be a coup, and yes, the end of democracy in the USA.
Wasn't it you expecting civil war not so long ago?
Click to expand...


I think it is a real possiblity if there is a coup but I think a coup is not that likely.
I just hink that even conservative justices would be reluctant to stage a full scale coup.
Paranoia does not exist soley on the right.
Or maybe you want it to happen on the "Sooner we have fascism, the sooner we will have the revollution" theory.
 
dudalb said:
That FLorida 2000 was a fluke does not occur to you?
Click to expand...

one time is a fluke.

But just now Kavanaugh referenced Bush v. Gore in a vote-counting lawsuit, which means that at least for him it's Precedent (even though the literal text of the decisions says that it cannot be taken as such).

No, Florida 2000 might have been a fluke then, but it has become a blueprint.
 
Originally, in February 2017 I voted "Don't know, but I hope not".

But, if had to vote now, then I would vote "No".

The three things I have noticed recently, which were not there in 2017 are:

One: Biden is significantly our-fundraising Trump.
Two: Trump has foolishly squandered a great deal of his campaign funds.
Three: even the news media now tends to speak of Trump in the past tense. Which I find to be significant since the news media often has a good grasp of the current public sentiment.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
one time is a fluke.

But just now Kavanaugh referenced Bush v. Gore in a vote-counting lawsuit, which means that at least for him it's Precedent (even though the literal text of the decisions says that it cannot be taken as such).

No, Florida 2000 might have been a fluke then, but it has become a blueprint.
Click to expand...

I'd love to hear the Supreme Court make a legal argument that something they do isn't a precedent. I'm pretty sure that's not how like... what the law is... works.
 
I fear the answer is yes.

When a 70 + yo lifelong democrat party voter tells you he's voting for Trump because of civil unrest and doesn't trust Biden to end it, there's a problem.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom