2020 Presidential Election

[thaiboxerken]

Truth is, the reason most of them didn't jump ship when Barry Goldwater showed up, is that the GOP wouldn't allow them to keep their seniority in congress. Following 1964 (the 64 was likened by Jackie Robinson to Nazi Germeny), you get obvious racists and segregationists like Jesse Helms, Ronald Reagan, Willaim F. Buckley Jr. grow to national prominence.

(As I've said before, the GOP mostly abandoned any pretense to true racial equality in the early 1900s as they embraced the Lily White movement, and rejected the Black and Tan Republicans. And of course, at this point we have an outright white supremacist president with a xenophobic, white nationalist immigration policy in the Oval Office. I just assume any republican who claims "Party of Lincoln" is lying to themselves so they can look at themselves in the mirror every day.)

It baffles me how any dark or brown skinned person can support the Trump regime at all? How do they convince themselves that the GOP isn't a white supremacist party?
I'm Asian, I'm brown but a "model" minority so I can see how Asians could sign on. White supremacists treat us as if we're the good brown people that "act white" and work hard. They ignore that most brown and black people work hard, much harder than the privileged, and get much less for their hard work.

 

[JoeMorgue]

It baffles me how any dark or brown skinned person can support the Trump regime at all? How do they convince themselves that the GOP isn't a white supremacist party?
I'm Asian, I'm brown but a "model" minority so I can see how Asians could sign on. White supremacists treat us as if we're the good brown people that "act white" and work hard. They ignore that most brown and black people work hard, much harder than the privileged, and get much less for their hard work.

I've mentioned this before but the Republican are often good at selling "But not you, you're one of the goods ones" in the subtext of their hatred.

And in any demographic you're going find statistical outliers of... I guess "self-hate" is too strong a word but something in that ballpark, that that message appeals to.

 

[phiwum]

Interesting item on my Facebook feed:



https://www.facebook.com/WilliamHillSports/posts/4660874930651193

This is loss leading advertising from William Hill and the maximum bet is £1.

I think I'd make that bet. His odds are better than 2% where I sit.

Details matter, of course. If those odds are winning the popular vote, I wouldn't take it. If the odds are about the finally declared winner, I'd definitely take it.

I'd have £50 to help drown my sorrow. It's not much, but its more than nothing.

 

[phiwum]

When elections in swing states are won with 1% margins, even a few hundred votes could make a difference.

There has to be at least a few people in that crowd who are re-thinking their vote. Every time he pulls a stunt like this, it hurts him.

I sincerely doubt it.

These are people who went to significant effort to see him in person. They won't blame Trump for logistics issues. As with COVID, he's not responsible (which, to be fair, everyone agrees that Trump is not responsible, but in different senses).

 

[alfaniner]

3 counties in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania lost the election list time. There's no need for some nefarious moneyball reason the Dems are giving them a little attention this time.

You gonna check the tire that's already had 3 flats a little extra when you put air in your tires. It's not that complicated.

I'm having a lot of difficulty parsing this sentence. Could you clarify?

 

[The Don]

I'm having a lot of difficulty parsing this sentence. Could you clarify?

Three counties lost the election......

Had Hillary carried those three, she would have been home and hosed.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'm having a lot of difficulty parsing this sentence. Could you clarify?

Errr... 3 counties (one each in Penn, Mich, and Wisc) are what lost the election last time. The margin was that narrow.

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2016/12/21/the-trump-landslide-three-counties-carried-the-day

https://time.com/4678962/2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ident-thanks-to-80000-people-in-three-states/

 

[Firestone]

When it comes to the presidential election, there's one thing that still has me nervous.

Last year at this time I was all set to anoint Hillary Clinton as president. Then, in the weekend before the election, I noticed something. Michigan was crawling with politicians. Hillary didn't show up, but Bill Clinton did. Trump was here. I can't remember who else, but several high-profile surrogates were beating the bushes in Michigan.

This made me nervous, because Michigan was not supposed to be a swing state. Really, in an election where the Democrat is cruising to victory, Michigan shouldn't be "in play". What were all these politicians doing in Michigan? Shouldn't they be in Ohio, or Virginia?

Well, Michigan is getting a lot of attention right now. Somebody is pretty sure that Michigan is not in the bag for Biden, and if Michigan is not in the bag, I don't see how Georgia or Texas is in play.

Of course, this is a weird year. Lots of things have happened that might shake up standard voting profiles, but for my part I won't breath easy until I see Michigan go blue on the map on election night.....or the Saturday after.

Biden up 49%-41% in latest NYT/Sienna poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321502603272925184

In other news, Barack Obama will join Joe Biden in Michigan Saturday.

 

[GlennB]

I think I'd make that bet. His odds are better than 2% where I sit.

Details matter, of course. If those odds are winning the popular vote, I wouldn't take it. If the odds are about the finally declared winner, I'd definitely take it.

I'd have £50 to help drown my sorrow. It's not much, but its more than nothing.

But you'd have to open an account with them. I'd bet they have small print about needing to make a certain number/value of bets before that promo offer can be cashed out if it wins. Next thing you know you're placing bets on all sorts of stuff because you've acquired a taste for it. You lose all your money, get divorced, the house is repossessed and the children sold into slavery.

Happens all the time

 

[Meadmaker]

Errr... 3 counties (one each in Penn, Mich, and Wisc) are what lost the election last time. The margin was that narrow.

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2016/12/21/the-trump-landslide-three-counties-carried-the-day

https://time.com/4678962/2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ident-thanks-to-80000-people-in-three-states/

I read the Time article. Very interesting. Not what I expected. For those not wanting to read, it is not "What if people in this county had voted differently?" It was actually, "What would have happened if this county had been in a neighboring state, instead of the one where it actually sits?"

So it begins by talking about the possibility that Lucas County, Ohio, which contains Toledo, was in Michigan instead.

Similarly, it moves one county from Illinois to Wisconsin, and one from New Jersey to Pennsylvania.

It's more about the arbitrariness of the Electoral College outcome than anything else, but it is kind of a cool article.

 

[Meadmaker]

Biden up 49%-41% in latest NYT/Sienna poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321502603272925184

In other news, Barack Obama will join Joe Biden in Michigan Saturday.

There was a note in National Review Online today noting that Trump is spending a lot time in places that ought to be safe Trump havens. It seems both sides have the same problem. I think the uncertainty in polling data is driving both sides a little batty.

Well, as the cliche goes, there is one poll that matters. 68 million respondents have already answered, and a lot more will answer next Tuesday. Hopefully, by one week from now we will know the results.

 

[slyjoe]

I read the Time article. Very interesting. Not what I expected. For those not wanting to read, it is not "What if people in this county had voted differently?" It was actually, "What would have happened if this county had been in a neighboring state, instead of the one where it actually sits?"

So it begins by talking about the possibility that Lucas County, Ohio, which contains Toledo, was in Michigan instead.
Similarly, it moves one county from Illinois to Wisconsin, and one from New Jersey to Pennsylvania.

It's more about the arbitrariness of the Electoral College outcome than anything else, but it is kind of a cool article.

The Toledo War settled that.

 

[Minoosh]

Trump supporters in Beverly Hills threaten people if they don't vote for Trump

“Your mother loves Trump – I asked her. We got your plates – we got you,”
The man walks to the front of the car, points, and returns to the passenger window.
“We got your plates baby. We know who you are now. You’re going to vote for Trump whether you like it or not. You got no choice!

I so hope that guy is charged with felony extortion. Easy win for the DA.

 

[Minoosh]

Well, as the cliche goes, there is one poll that matters.

There are 50 polls that matter. But they don't all matter equally.

In 2016 I was browsing craigslist for gigs ... the Trump campaign was hiring canvassers for the weekend before the election to visit targeted households that were likely Trump supporters but at risk for not voting. The Democrats weren't. Maybe they had enough volunteers. But Hillary didn't have a great ground game. I want Obama to be freakin' knocking on doors, just for the beauty of that image. But it might not be the best use of resources.

Trump is calling me 3-4 times a day begging for money.

I'm sorry I didn't get Mom registered. She's 96, has dementia and was a lifelong Republican, but I think she got purged because I did not organize an MVD ID after her driver's license expired. She can't stand Trump. I live in a state where every vote will matter at least a little bit. So do you I guess.

 

[The Don]

There are 50 polls that matter. But they don't all matter equally.

In 2016 I was browsing craigslist for gigs ... the Trump campaign was hiring canvassers for the weekend before the election to visit targeted households that were likely Trump supporters but at risk for not voting. The Democrats weren't. Maybe they had enough volunteers. But Hillary didn't have a great ground game. I want Obama to be freakin' knocking on doors, just for the beauty of that image. But it might not be the best use of resources.

Depending on the neighborhood, he could get shot.

 

[Meadmaker]

There are 50 polls that matter. But they don't all matter equally.

In 2016 I was browsing craigslist for gigs ... the Trump campaign was hiring canvassers for the weekend before the election to visit targeted households that were likely Trump supporters but at risk for not voting. The Democrats weren't. Maybe they had enough volunteers. But Hillary didn't have a great ground game. I want Obama to be freakin' knocking on doors, just for the beauty of that image. But it might not be the best use of resources.

Trump is calling me 3-4 times a day begging for money.

I'm sorry I didn't get Mom registered. She's 96, has dementia and was a lifelong Republican, but I think she got purged because I did not organize an MVD ID after her driver's license expired. She can't stand Trump. I live in a state where every vote will matter at least a little bit. So do you I guess.

Well, I'm certainly not taking any chances. I've already voted.

Based on early voting numbers, my pessimism has been tempered a bit. I have been worried that the election will be close, but that with Biden voters more likely to vote by mail, more of their ballots will be spoiled or otherwise not count, and the election slips away. With so many people voting this time around, I'm optimistic that what it means is that a whole lot of people who didn't bother to vote last time are showing up this time, and Biden will win in a cakewalk.

Or......something else will happen. Less than a week.

 

[Horatius]

Trump adviser Stephen Miller calls administration’s move to lower refugee ceiling a ‘sharp contrast’ with Biden

"Uhm yeah, Steve, we know, that's why we're voting for Biden." - The Democrats.


Seriously. Is this guy so desperate for headlines that he's just saying the obvious now?

 

[The Atheist]

But you'd have to open an account with them. I'd bet they have small print about needing to make a certain number/value of bets before that promo offer can be cashed out if it wins.

Just in case anyone is seriously considering the idea of betting on Trump to ease the pain if he should pull off the impossible, you're wrong.

There are several reputable international bookies who will double your initial deposit, with no strings attached.

That way, if you took $100 on Trump to win, you could take the free $100 bet on him as well, so your effective odds will be 3:1 instead of 2:1.

The $100 free bet doesn't get paid out, only the winnings on it.

 

[dirtywick]

"Uhm yeah, Steve, we know, that's why we're voting for Biden." - The Democrats.


Seriously. Is this guy so desperate for headlines that he's just saying the obvious now?

That guys only 35 years old, believe it or not.

 

[Elagabalus]

Three counties lost the election......

Had Hillary carried those three, she would have been home and hosed.

Good Heavens!!