2020 Presidential Election

[Firestone]

Dave Wasserman's (The Cook Political Report) take on the state of the race:

A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear:

1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '16
2) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '16
3) District-level polls (which showed big problems for Clinton in '16) back up national/state polls

If you're looking for a horse race narrative right now, you're not going to find it here. There was a time when it was easy to imagine this race going much differently. Eight days out, it's much, much harder. I've seen...almost enough.

Btw, virtually none of this assessment has anything to do with early turnout data, which tells us next to nothing about the vote preferences of the final electorate.

It's based on a body of polling data that's fundamentally different from 2016's polls.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320545652162572288

(bolding mine)

And in case someone wants to "yeah, they said the same thing in 2016" that, no, he didn't.


https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320567570999713792

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!

 

[The Don]

Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!

Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy

 

[newyorkguy]

Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy

My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

We have made tremendous progress with the China Virus, but the Fake News refuses to talk about it this close to the Election. COVID, COVID, COVID is being used by them, in total coordination, in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!

Three BIG Rallies today. Heading to Pennsylvania. I have plenty to say about the dishonesty of the Media and Sleepy Joe. A terrible coverup is happening in our Country!!!

We are winning big on the voting numbers. Get out and Vote. Bigger than 2016!!!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

 

[Aridas]

Expect anything different from a CHristina Fundy who does not like science anyway because ti conflicts with his Book Of Fairy Tales?

Quibble - his desired interpretation of his Book Of Fairy Tales, which, statistically speaking, likely diverges from the things that the Book Of Fairy Tales actually says, frequently and significantly.

Still trying to think what the hell Meadows was thinking when he made that statement.

He was admitting the truth with it, evidentially.

Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy

Evidence? I'm not seeing much in favor of the highlighted, at this point.

 

[The Don]

Evidence? I'm not seeing much in favor of the highlighted, at this point.

It was in the post I was quoting:

Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!

 

[slyjoe]

Trump Tweets

“A Pennsylvania Appeals Court turns down the Trump Administrations request for Poll Watchers to monitor satellite election offices.” @OANN

How terrible is this? We are just seeking a fair vote count. This can only lead to very bad things. Bad intentions much??? Disgraceful!!!

Do poll watchers actually count votes? I think not.

 

[kookbreaker]

Is this one of those po-tay-to, po-tah-to things ?

I think of them as armed white supremacists attempting to intimidate minorities into not voting, the President of the United States thinks of them as the guardians of freedom and democracy

The satellite election offices are merely helping people acquire and fill out PA mail-in ballots. There is no counting and not voting machines present. By PA state law there is no more need for poll watchers than there is at your kitchen table when you fill out a mail-in ballot there. If you don’t work there and are not voting you have no business being there. Trump just wants his goon squad to harass people in lines waiting to get in.

 

[Aridas]

It was in the post I was quoting:

Trump saying something doesn't mean that he believes it. He's made that quite clear over the years - especially when he thinks that he has something to gain by lying/pushing particular lines of propaganda.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high. On November 4th., topic will totally change. VOTE!

New York, California, Illinois. People are FLEEING, Taxes and Crime are going through the roof. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn it around, and FAST!

 

[kookbreaker]

Trump Tweets

Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high. On November 4th., topic will totally change. VOTE!

New York, California, Illinois. People are FLEEING, Taxes and Crime are going through the roof. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn it around, and FAST!

"Vote for me stop the things that started under my Presidency"!

 

[The Don]

"Vote for me stop the things that started under my Presidency"!

It worked for Boris Johnson in the UK in the last election.

"Unhappy with the effects of Austerity and how badly botched Brexit has been ? Vote for me and I'll fix it all - not least because my colleagues were responsible for all of it"

 

[Distracted1]

"Vote for me stop the things that started under my Presidency"!

Truly ironic. But right out of the Republican playbook, no?

"government is the problem!- Elect me and I will prove it!" - says every Republican, ever.

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

My experience has been, most of the white Americans who buy into the president's concerns are people who seldom if ever interact with non-whites. Their opinions about black Americans are formed by watching coverage of George Floyd protests on FOX. And reruns of TV shows like Baretta.

Hey I watch Baretta, that is still on YouTube! I am voting for Biden however and Bernie wants me to send money to Ilhan

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

Do poll watchers actually count votes? I think not.

I got stopped by one who asked me who I voted for. Or is that not a poll watcher?

 

[JoeMorgue]

That's why Trump has to be constantly harping on either "The Deep State" or the Democratic (even mythical ones since he gets that's wrong so often) Governors of states. Since the Republicans control the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and the only House of Congress that can actually do anything the question of who exactly is stopping them from fixing everything has gotten fairly esoteric.

As opposed to the Left. During the last debate Trump said something to Biden to the effect of "You were in charge for 8 years, why didn't you fix everything?" and I wanted Biden to scream in his stupid face "Because for nearly all of that time we have an obstructionist Republican Congress, what's your excuse?"

 

[Craig4]

I got stopped by one who asked me who I voted for. Or is that not a poll watcher?

In most jurisdictions, poll watchers aren't allowed to interact with the voter. I'm sure that in all jurisdictions, no one at the polling place is allowed to ask you that question. Exit pollsters can ask you that after you've left the polling place, but in the polling place, it's a secret ballot.

 

[Craig4]

Texas went from .01 ahead for Biden to dead even this morning. If Biden wins Texas, this won't be a landslide, it will be a rout.

 

[timhau]

Texas went from .01 ahead for Biden to dead even this morning. If Biden wins Texas, this won't be a landslide, it will be a rout.

I like FiveThirtyEight's snake model; right now it says that all Biden really needs is Pennsylvania to get to 270 EC votes, and they're projecting him to win it by 5+ percentage points. If Texas is even truly competitive, it means that a lot of red dominoes have fallen and Biden is taking some or all of Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio.