Louden Wilde
Muse
That entirely depends on where the trans condition originates from. If it is biological/genetic in origin, then the number of trans people would be the same. If it's environmentally produced, then it's a more complicated question.
Actually, this leads to another question: suppose a trans-gene were located and could be tested for. And suppose that once detected in early childhood (or even before birth) a "gene therapy" or something could be given to a child that would align their mental development with their physical development. If doing so would eliminate a great deal of stress for the child, would parents be correct to do so?
Great questions!
Trans-ID is likely a combination of genetics and environment. The gold standard of course is looking at monozygotic (MZ) twins raised apart (which of course is not trivial) - meaning unless there is near 100% concordance in MZ twins, than there must be a significant environmental component. A quick google and pubmed search supports this idea.
The most recent study I see (Diamond, 2013- Transsexuality Among Twins: Identity Concordance, Transition, Rearing, and Orientation) says: Combining data from the present survey with those from past-published reports, 20% of all male and female monozygotic twin pairs were found concordant for transsexual identity. This was more frequently the case for males (33%) than for females (23%).
But yes, eventually we will probably ID alleles that increase the chances of being trans - they may very well be included in comprehensive genetic testing that include what are called polygenic risk scores - that will tell your risk of common diseases (diabetes, heart, etc) that are caused by many genes with risk alleles that each have small effects. We'll probably also have a sense of what your long term stress levels and how long you are likely to live based on a combination of your genetics and epigenetic patterns (I was watching a virtual symposium yesterday, where scientist noted she could now tell whether a person had smoked based on epigenetic patterns). There is likely an epigenetic signature for being trans as well, but probably confined to specific areas of the CNS (making it difficult to test).
How we use that information and potentially alter people is going to be... interesting
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