2020 Presidential Election

[dirtywick]

There's no hidden Trump voters in the polls, unless they're staying so hidden they're donating to Biden too.

And now, just to make sure to frame the election around Covid, Trump's spending the last days of his campaign going after Fauci in the most immature way possible. Not too many undecided voters are anti Fauci. Plus it seems he's completely lost the faith of the R party who are scrambling to try and distance from him.

I mean, what is going well for him?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Good point.

Polling might be spoofed, but donations are donations.

And Trump would be spending differently if they had a pile of cash to draw on.

 

[Meadmaker]

So what is the Narrative for a Trump win?

Are there still huge pools of untapped undecided voters?
Does everyone lie and votes Trump but tells pollsters that they vote Biden? or will it be a case of Blue Voters being really bad at using mail-in ballots or having voting ID?
I just don't see what scenario would make me believe that Trump won fair&square.

The highlighted. Or the Trump voters don't talk to pollsters at all.

The second one (spoiled ballots) should be a small effect, and that's a nightmare scenario if the race is so close that it comes into play.

And there's the possibility that the Biden voters don't all turn out at the polls.

I don't expect any of those things to happen, but those are the scenarios that could result in a Trump win at this point. Trump seems to have done a great job of energizing people to vote against him, so low turnout doesn't seem likely. The first one (not talking to/lying to pollsters) is definitely happening, but hopefully pollsters have good estimates and are already accurately building that effect into polls. As for spoiled ballots, we know it's going to happen, for sure. Just how much? More Dem voters will vote absentee, and more absentee ballots will be spoiled than in-person ballots, so it will have an effect, but it should be a small effect.

There could also be a major gaffe by Biden, or there's still time for an "October surprise". Those things get less likely as time goes on, but right now, they can't be ruled out.

 

[The Don]

He might win but I think it would be very, very close.

ETA: After watching those women in PA who voted for Trump but are not voting for him now, most of them were Republicans. It wasn't just Covid that changed their minds. It was his lying, his bullying and his racism, too. I think a lot of non-base Republicans, especially educated white women, have had enough of him. They might not have voted for Biden, but they may have not voted at all or written in another name.

The thing is that people may say that they're not voting for President Trump and they may even intend to walk into that polling station and cast their vote for Biden, or write in another candidate but when they're actually in there they change their mind back and vote GOP.

I've done this myself, fully intended to vote for another party but then actually voted for the party I almost always vote for. I rationalised it as voting for anyone other than one of the two major parties in this part of Wales was a wasted vote but in truth it was more to do with habit and feelings of guilt that I was somehow being a class-traitor.

 

[Stacyhs]

The thing is that people may say that they're not voting for President Trump and they may even intend to walk into that polling station and cast their vote for Biden, or write in another candidate but when they're actually in there they change their mind back and vote GOP.

I've done this myself, fully intended to vote for another party but then actually voted for the party I almost always vote for. I rationalised it as voting for anyone other than one of the two major parties in this part of Wales was a wasted vote but in truth it was more to do with habit and feelings of guilt that I was somehow being a class-traitor.

Good points. But there are also women who say they're going to vote for Trump because they don't want to upset their husband, family and friends but in the privacy of the voting booth, they don't.

 

[The Don]

Voters wearing BLM shirts have been turned away from a polling station in Tennessee.

It could have been a simple misunderstanding over the rules, the issue has been addressed and the poll worker in question has been fired but in swing states on election day things like this could be enough to influence the outcome.

A poll worker in Tennessee has been fired after turning away voters who were wearing Black Lives Matter clothing. A witness reported the incident to officials, who dismissed the man on Friday, Shelby County Election Commission spokeswoman Suzanne Thompson said.

Under Tennessee law, voters cannot wear items bearing the name of a candidate or political party at a polling station. But the slogans worn by the voters - which included "Black Lives Matter" and "I Can't Breathe" - do not violate the rule, Thompson said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ele...8e9c72c898d102e4444ae3&pinned_post_type=share

Then again, if it was a simple mistake and/or confusion over the rules, then why dismiss the poll worker rather than just point out their error ?

 

[timhau]

He might win but I think it would be very, very close.

ETA: After watching those women in PA who voted for Trump but are not voting for him now, most of them were Republicans. It wasn't just Covid that changed their minds. It was his lying, his bullying and his racism, too. I think a lot of non-base Republicans, especially educated white women, have had enough of him. They might not have voted for Biden, but they may have not voted at all or written in another name.

I wonder how much COVID-19 really mattered in the end. The people who believe Trump's BS about how tremendous his handling of the COVID-19 crisis was probably believe all his other lies as well. If you don't believe his lies, you knew his incompetence would come to light at the first sight of any crisis. You can see from his popularity numbers that there just aren't many undecideds left.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

With any luck, he'll decide Trump has outlived his usefulness and leave him to his fate.

I actually think that is what has happened. With the recent failure of negotiations of renewing and updating the START treaty, after the US negotiators maladroitly tried to insinuate that Putain agreed to cut back on the number of Russian tactical nukes, it looks to me that he's signalling hard that Trump is on his own.

Remember, Trump has done a lot of stuff recently (most obviously aligning Israel with the anti-Iran countries in the gulf) that's against Putain's current strategic goals.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Retweeted
Lauren Boebert for Congress (R-CO3)
@laurenboebert
US House candidate, CO-3
Stop Democrats from stealing our votes for President and putting Colorado's water at risk.
We’re fifteen days out from the election and it’s critical I keep ads like this running on the air in this incredibly close race.
Donate today: https://secure.winred.com/lauren-boebert-for-congress/win

(video in link)
https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1318176506665893888

 

[Safe-Keeper]

I wonder how much COVID-19 really mattered in the end. The people who believe Trump's BS about how tremendous his handling of the COVID-19 crisis was probably believe all his other lies as well. If you don't believe his lies, you knew his incompetence would come to light at the first sight of any crisis. You can see from his popularity numbers that there just aren't many undecideds left.

Trump had a really strongman strong cult of personality thing going on, though. When part of your appeal is that you're this tough, strong, authoritarian bully, little things like hiding from protesters in your bunker and coming down with an illness can do more damage to your image, and thus your popularity, than it would to an ordinary politician. Any sign of weakness detracts from your appeal to the masses.

Had it been Obama who was escorted to the bunker by the Secret Service, I doubt people would really have cared too much. Had Bush come down with an illness, I think he would just have seen a small boost in approval ratings out of sympathy.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Had it been Obama who was escorted to the bunker by the Secret Service, I doubt people would really have cared too much. Had Bush come down with an illness, I think he would just have seen a small boost in approval ratings out of sympathy.

If Trump had just said he was acting on advice from the SS it would have passed without comment.
Instead we got a denial and then the story that he was 'inspecting' it.

 

[JoeMorgue]

In the past I've referred to Trump as someone who can stand in front of a crowd of 100 Left Handers with the plan to screw over all 100 of them, say "I'm going to screw over those Left Handers" and somehow have many of them hear the subtext of "But only the 'other' Left Handers! No you! You're one of the good ones!"

It's the "Trump stands in front of a sold out crowd in Iowa on National TV and says 'How stupid are the people of Iowa?'" thing.

Maybe he's lost that touch. Maybe "The Left Handers" (Women, rural voters, minorities, etc) that previously didn't see themselves as part of the demographics that Trump aims his hateful rhetoric act now are.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Trump Retweeted

Melissa Tate
@TheRightMelissa
We are in the home stretch. Biden is getting Billions$ from Soros & others. President Trump relies on small donations from the grass roots for his campaign. He has put everything on the line for us so let’s make a final push & donate. We are winning!

What grassroots campaign? The simple fact of the matter is that Tate has exactly reversed the provenance of both parties' money, the reublicans get big donors, the Democrats get lots of small donations (by and large)

 

[Craig4]

Four years ago, I said that about Hillary's emails.

That story shouldn't have had traction, but it did.

I was listening to some right wing yappers tonight (Jay Sekulow show(sp?)), and they were playing the laptop story in a really big way. I hope it's just their desperation "Hail, Mary" call at the last minute. There's two weeks to go. We'll see what comes of it. It seems like a nothingburger to me, but.....

The story has been out long enough to capture polling data. Trump lost ground in Texas but is still ahead. Biden gained in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. I don't think it's a coincidence that the allegations that there is child pornography on the drive came out at the same time as the first polls came in showing the story didn't move the needle at all.

 

[Horatius]

The story has been out long enough to capture polling data. Trump lost ground in Texas but is still ahead. Biden gained in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. I don't think it's a coincidence that the allegations that there is child pornography on the drive came out at the same time as the first polls came in showing the story didn't move the needle at all.

And that timing is just about all you need to know that this claim is ********.

If there really was child pornography on a computer tied to Biden, that would have been the lead story, and it likely would have sunk him. Why would anyone with a bombshell like that delay it in favor of the weak-ass "corruption" ******** we've seen? Evidence for corruption so weak that even Fox News passed on running it doesn't hold a candle to child porn.

 

[Armitage72]

And that timing is just about all you need to know that this claim is ********.

If there really was child pornography on a computer tied to Biden, that would have been the lead story, and it likely would have sunk him. Why would anyone with a bombshell like that delay it in favor of the weak-ass "corruption" ******** we've seen? Evidence for corruption so weak that even Fox News passed on running it doesn't hold a candle to child porn.

Next up, emails on Hunter Biden's laptop reveal that he is secretly a 50% owner of Comet Ping Pong pizzeria.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets
To the great people of New York, California, and Illinois, your states are way too highly taxed, big crime, people fleeing, and just about every other problem you can have. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn them around for you, FAST!

 

[Firestone]

Trump Tweets
To the great people of New York, California, and Illinois, your states are way too highly taxed, big crime, people fleeing, and just about every other problem you can have. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn them around for you, FAST!

This doesn't make any sense coming from the incumbent.


I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know ...

 

[thaiboxerken]

I will be really surprised if Trump agrees to this. He looked like a bully in the first debate and he'll look like an unhinged lunatic unintelligibly ranting with his mic off.

The Trump regime is already looking for excuses to opt out of the third debate. This might be the one excuse they settle on. They've already floated a "we were promised to only debate foreign policy" lie.

 

[Delvo]

Trump Tweets
To the great people of New York, California, and Illinois, your states are way too highly taxed, big crime, people fleeing, and just about every other problem you can have. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn them around for you, FAST!

This doesn't make any sense coming from the incumbent.

Actually it does. He spent his first term openly saying he wanted to work against any state that wasn't on his side and harm them as much as possible. But if they were to switch sides and support him, then he'd stop doing that.