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2020 Presidential Election

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The Don said:
They may not want to prop up President Trump per se but Trump's base is the key to the Presidency (I cannot envisage a Republican being elected in the foreseeable future without it turning out in forces) and to both the Senate and House.<snip>
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If you're right about the parenthetical comment, then I am even less concerned. Remember, conservatism under Trump has turned into a cult. And once Trump is gone, who is going to carry the GOP that can fire up the cultists. I would argue there is no current GOPer who can fill the bill.

BTW, I concur with your parenthetical comment.
 
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Captain_Swoop said:
The White House tweeted
@WhiteHouse

US government accountPresident @realDonaldTrump's action on critical minerals builds on his commitment to reduce our reliance on foreign imports, bolster American industries, and strengthen our economy as we safely reopen from the pandemic.
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Isn't it illegal to use government assets in an election campaign?
 
Giordano said:
Think of it! Biden may easily win by a substantial double digit margin and still lose in the electoral college! I’ve thought about the concepts involved, the desire to ensure that all states have some influence, that it is the United States of America, etc, but that just should not happen. At minimum we need to adjust the way the different states’s electoral votes are counted. Maybe one vote automatically per state plus the number of representatives?
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Reform of the elector college will never happen because it greatly benefits the rural states.

There is a simple way to fix it.
 
Dread Pirate Roberts said:
It's not that it's Pennsylvania deciding. Their model correlates states, in that if one state goes a certain way, then so do some number of others. In PA's case, that's Michigan and Wisconsin. So, the model is saying, if Pennsylvania went GOP, then so did MI and WI, so Trump wins, and vice-versa. Biden is polling well ahead in all 3 states.
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Gotcha. That makes more sense I probably should have read more.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
 
Here's how real Trump supporters should vote in Democrat controlled swing states likely to go against Real America.

Mark your ballot for Trump, other Republicans, and vote "no" on all of the commie propositions. Wait a week. Using a pen of the same color but a different brand, cross out your vote for Trump and indicate Joe Biden as your choice (in accordance with procedures in your state). Submit your ballot shortly before the deadline. Later allege voter fraud.
 
FiveThirtyEight:
We’ve started to get polls on what the public thinks of Trump’s bout with COVID-19, and so far Americans, including some Republicans, say Trump didn’t take enough precautions. There are also signs that the episode may be hurting Trump’s reelection chances. Not every pollster has shown an uptick for Joe Biden since we learned about Trump’s diagnosis, but Biden still got some of his best polls this week and he now has a double-digit lead over Trump nationally.
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86-13.
 
If the GOP has nasty October surprises, they will have to start firlding them soon. The election is only two and a half weeks away.
 
SezMe said:
If you're right about the parenthetical comment, then I am even less concerned. Remember, conservatism under Trump has turned into a cult. And once Trump is gone, who is going to carry the GOP that can fire up the cultists. I would argue there is no current GOPer who can fill the bill.

BTW, I concur with your parenthetical comment.
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You know that Trump isn't going to stay out of being active in politics the way another president would. He'll be in the media as much as he can bashing Biden and the Dems whether he wins or loses. The GOP will still try and stay in his good graces.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
If the GOP has nasty October surprises, they will have to start firlding them soon. The election is only two and a half weeks away.
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I think Trump is trying to get Barr to produce an October Surprise. In fact, he is publicly urging him to be as transparently partisan as possible. Barr is obviously partisan, but I think even he thinks that Trump is not supposed to be blaring his obvious contempt for the idea of an independent judiciary.
 
The people who Trump surrounds himself should no by now that there is no possibility of "Psssst...shall we secretly try to manipulate things behind the scenes...." because Trump's the type of person who would then go on Twitter and say, "HA HA DEMS - LACKEY NUMBER 2 IS SECRETLY BREAKING THE LAW TO TAKE YOU GUYS DOWN! VOTE TRUMP!"
 
Safe-Keeper said:
If the GOP has nasty October surprises, they will have to start firlding them soon. The election is only two and a half weeks away.
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Actually, nine million people have already voted. It's already started. I voted on Sunday by dropping off a ballot in a drop box. By the end of the week, I expect around 20 million votes will have already been cast. Some states are starting in person early voting this week. Here in Maryland, the county put out about half the drop-boxes last week and the rest will be in place this week. Most States will be full on into early voting by next week. An October surprise won't change votes already cast.

For the votes not cast, I'm not sure there's an October surprise voters would care about out there. This election is about COVID-19 and nothing else. A second COVID-19 relief bill might help Trump but that seems unlikely. It would also help Democrats since they would have to vote for it too. A vaccine announcement right now would be a farce. Hardly anyone would take it if available right now. Besides the story wouldn't be the vaccine, it would be the about the political influence on the process.
 
angrysoba said:
I think Trump is trying to get Barr to produce an October Surprise. In fact, he is publicly urging him to be as transparently partisan as possible. Barr is obviously partisan, but I think even he thinks that Trump is not supposed to be blaring his obvious contempt for the idea of an independent judiciary.
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-Read in Yoda's voice- McCabe, McCabe, remember your failure with McCabe.


Barr, as bad of a lawyer as he is, knows that no DC grand jury will indict any significant player in the Obama administration. They couldn't even get McCabe for anything and he may have actually done something wrong, according to the DoJ IG. A failed indictment wouldn't do much by way of October surprising.
 
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Stacyhs said:
And tens of thousands have already voted. If they had them, they'd have fired them already.
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Possibly millions have voted already.

IIRC there are nearly 6 million US expats. They tend to me more engaged than average and likely most have already sent off their absentee ballot.

edited to add.....

Sorry, should have read ahead to Craig4's post :o
 
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The Don said:
Possibly millions have voted already.

IIRC there are nearly 6 million US expats. They tend to me more engaged than average and likely most have already sent off their absentee ballot.

edited to add.....

Sorry, should have read ahead to Craig4's post :o
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Yes, Democrats Abroad is always very active in getting people to vote, and most Americans I know here in Japan have already done so because they are worried about the problems with the coronavirus and the human virus (Trump) fouling up the Post Office.

I'm glad to say that people who have previously been pretty blase about voting have been making extra sure they do so this year. The guy I know from Michigan who last year said, "I never need to vote - Michigan always goes Democrat!" has been loudly proclaiming that he voted for Biden this year.
 
60 Minutes did a piece on the Lincoln Project. Meet the people behind some of the best political ads ever. It's worth only 13 minutes of your time.



BTW, Stahl is 78. Shows what makeup and good living can do.
 
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The point of October Surprises is, obviously, that they are surprises.

For months the speculation was that Durham would produce the October Surprise, or that a miraculous vaccine would be announced, which is kind of self-contradictory for a supposed surprise.

Nobody in 2016 expected Weiner's laptop to produce the eleventh hour October Surprise.
Comey's letter was published on Friday, Oct 28th.
In this year's electoral calendar, that would be Friday, Oct 23rd.
In 2016, many people had already voted by then (though probably much less than will have this year). Still it was enough for Trump to win the EC by the smallest of margins in 3 states.

This year, we already have had some September/October Surprises, intentional or not: Trump taxes in the NYT, Trump getting COVID-19, RBG dying.

By definition we can't know what the Trump campaign plans as ultimate October Surprise, or if they even have one in store.
Also, like the NYT taxes stories shows, October Surprises could also be detrimental to Trump.

But will it matter?
Look at the polling in the NC senate race. The revelation of Cunningham's extramarital affair has had no big effect (for now).

21 days.
 
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