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2020 Presidential Election

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Trump Tweets

“56% of registered voters tell Gallup that they are better off than they were 4 years ago (under Obama/Biden), while only 32% said they were worse off.” Highest number on satisfaction yet recorded, by far. [email protected]... And it will only get better!!! VOTE

Turn California around. No more shutdowns, rolling blackouts, forest fires (management), or water rationing (because millions of gallons are stupidly routed out into the Pacific Ocean).
VOTE TRUMP!
 
Top US government scientist Anthony Fauci has said an edited clip of him used in a Trump campaign ad is misleading.

It shows Dr Fauci saying he "can't imagine that anybody could be doing more" to fight Covid-19, suggesting he is speaking about President Trump.

However, Dr Fauci was talking about himself and other medical officials.

The infectious diseases expert has previously clashed with Mr Trump over how to handle the pandemic.

"In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate," he said, in a statement sent to AFP news agency.

"The comments attributed to me without my permission in the GOP campaign ad were taken out of context from a broad statement I made months ago about the efforts of federal public health officials," Dr Fauci added.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54504096
 
angrysoba said:
Nate Silver has responded with: "[citation needed]"

Then he has found a quote that is vaguely similar but actually expresses the opposite opinion
...

LINK
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Captain_Swoop said:
Top US government scientist Anthony Fauci has said an edited clip of him used in a Trump campaign ad is misleading.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54504096
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So Trump is lying about what Nate Silver and Dr. Fauci both said. Can't say I'm surprised. He'd lie about what the Bible said and then swear Jesus is wrong, not him.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Top US government scientist Anthony Fauci has said an edited clip of him used in a Trump campaign ad is misleading.
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I saw the ad during a break in a football game yesterday, and you can clearly see and hear that the Fauci part wasn't a single shot. And with that, I was sure it wasn't just misleading but an out-and-out lie.
 
timhau said:
you can clearly see and hear that the Fauci part wasn't a single shot
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...the same method that Trump's people used when editing "The Apprentice" to create the illusion that Trump ever had any idea what he was doing in anything. It's amazing that there are people this stuff can actually work on.
 
Poll latest:

FiveThirtyEight have dropped the odds slightly for Trump from 14% to 13%.
The Economist has raised them slightly for him from 8% to 9%.
 
BillC said:
Poll latest:

FiveThirtyEight have dropped the odds slightly for Trump from 14% to 13%.
The Economist has raised them slightly for him from 8% to 9%.
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I wonder if there's an underlying difference in methodology ?

AIUI, fivethirtyeight forecasts the likelihood of the candidate winning on 3 November and takes into account an anticipated narrowing of the polls. So while they say that President Trump has a 14% chance of re-election in November, if the poll was held today, his chances would be lower.

OTOH the Economist may merely reflect the current position and thus the margins have closed.

In any case, I'm not sure that anyone has been able to factor in the risk that although Joe Biden might appear to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College, the GOP may be able to litigate President Trump (and some GOP Senators and Representatives who were initially unsuccessful) back into office. :(
 
Trump's odds have been fluctuating 1% in either direction for a while because 538 keeps dropping and re-adding the chance of an Electoral Tie while Biden's number has stayed (or increased) more steadily.
 
Trump Tweets

Rigged!
Quote Tweet

ABC 13 News - WSET
@ABC13News
New Jersey postal employee accused of dumping 1,800 pieces of mail. The mail included 99 ballots for the upcoming election.

READ MORE: https://bit.ly/3iFrAyU
 
Trump Tweets

No. A Rigged Election!
Quote Tweet

ABC 13 News - WSET
@ABC13News
Nearly 50,000 voters received wrong ballots in Ohio!
Does you feel safe mailing in your ballot?

READ MORE: https://bit.ly/2GKD8E1
 
There's really nothing that could make a Trump Presidency "worth it" but something, anything, to knock the American populace out of their complacency and actually remind it that Democracy is an active system they have to be involved in would come the closest.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Trump's odds have been fluctuating 1% in either direction for a while because 538 keeps dropping and re-adding the chance of an Electoral Tie while Biden's number has stayed (or increased) more steadily.
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That's true for sufficiently small values of "a while". He was at 20% entering the debate.

To some degree, that is a methodological artefact (when making the prediction they take recent polling and adjust the results with stuff like economic and incumbency factors, but the adjustment gets smaller as we approach election date), but his numbers have taken a real hit during October.
 
timhau said:
That's true for sufficiently small values of "a while". He was at 20% entering the debate.

To some degree, that is a methodological artefact (when making the prediction they take recent polling and adjust the results with stuff like economic and incumbency factors, but the adjustment gets smaller as we approach election date), but his numbers have taken a real hit during October.
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Oh I agree.

I worded my point badly. I mean that we're seeing a little more very slight day to day fluctuation in Trump's numbers falling then we are in Biden's number rising because that 1% chance of a tie keeps popping in and out of 538's predictive model.
 
I'm amused that Trump is still holding big rallies when it's his handling of COVID-19 that is dragging him down. The way he campaigns is what's hurting him. There are no undecided voters at those rallies yet he continues to hold them, reinforcing in the minds of pretty much everyone else that he's not the person to handle the virus.
 
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