Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Childlike Empress]

I'm not prepared to make a formal hypothesis, so I may or may not go back and re-source everything I've read.

SWPRS continues to collect useful data.

Updated on Friday: Studies on COVID-19 lethality

New on Thursday: COVID - The Big Picture in 7 Charts

 

[dann]

I've read a lot that suggests this. I'm not prepared to make a formal hypothesis, so I may or may not go back and re-source everything I've read. This is a computer forum, not a peer review. If you think that there may be a possibility that the data is corrupt, then feel free to investigate on your own.

'I have read a lot that suggests this' is as good as 'I have done a lot of research on Youtube.'
So you don't know anything and you base your hypothesis on absolutely nothing.

The conflicts include specific government subsidies for covid diagnoses and deaths. There are direct financial incentives to overstate such deaths.

Wow! They are specific!!! So where are your links to them?

You really need this spelled out for you, I see. It has to do with co-morbidities to the extent that many people die "with covid", but not necessarily because of covid. People like you just automatically assume that all of the data you obtain is good.

No, automatically assuming that all the data you obtain is good is what people like you do! You google HIV + autoimmune and assume that you know something. It appears to be enough to convince yourself, but that doesn't take much.
Yes, people die with Covid-19, which has been enough to convince you and CE (she can give you the name of a German doctor!) that most Covid-19 fatalities probably didn't die of Covid-19.
Too bad for you that you happen to be wrong.

I was illustrating the fact that exponential growth in death rates will decline as high risk patients die, obviously. It bothers me that anyone has to die. It just bothers me more that people like you want to overturn society in the name of safety and caution, as we pay through the nose.

It doesn't bother you at all that people die of Covid-19. 40? So you pay through the nose, and you expect that you would have to pay less by letting more people die the Swedish way: Instead of exposing them to the indignity of ICU treatment they should be allowed to die peacefully receiving palliative treatment, prescribed long-distance.
But tell us more about paying through the nose. It seems that we have finally established your motivation for believing in herd immunity. 'Those fancy ventilators! That's not what I pay my taxes for!'

I was never in denial of long-haulers. The costs born by Covid-ARDS survivors would be reflected in a QALY-based analysis, like every other cost associated with this disease and the interventions, and not reflected in your go-to mortality statistics!

The mortality statistics are the best comparison of the countries because some countries are spectacularly bad at testing and tracing, Sweden more so than all other Nordic countries. There is reason to assume (but it hasn't yet been studied properly) that the number of long-haulers is proportional to the number of deaths.
It has become too bloody obvious that I am always the one who has to remind you of the existence of the long-haulers. I am the one who has to remind you that people in Sweden get depressed during the pandemic. And I am the one who has to remind you that Swedes get unemployed. You prefer to pretend that these things only happens to people in New Zealand because of their allegedly tyrannical restrictions.

Even more reason to look at the aggregate costs of this thing, and less reason to focus on mortality.

However, you don't actually look at the "aggregate costs of this thing." You just pretend that you do and use it as an argument for being in denial about the the Swedish death toll.
Your post was supposed to answer some of the many questions about the "aggregate costs of this thing," and you have presented us with nothing at all!

 

[Childlike Empress]

dann. It's time for a serious look in the mirror. Just admit - first to yourself - that this almost 60 pages long thread exists because of ...

Good luck!

 

[dann]

dann. It's time for a serious look in the mirror. Just admit - first to yourself - that this almost 60 pages long thread exists because of ...

Good luck!

... because I keep updating Covid-19 numbers.
But that it is 60 pages long is mainly due to the people who don't like to be confronted with facts.

Monday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Oct. 5, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 583 (5,895) 752* 22** *according to SVT.se ** according to SVT.se No new numbers till Tuesday
Denmark: 114 (659) 377 30
Finland: 62 (346) 164 8
Norway: 51 (275) 70 3
Iceland: 29 (10) 59 3
Iceland has 670 active cases, Faroe Islands 34, New Zealand 41.
The Faroe Islands have 143 in quarantine, 1 hospitalized.

Faroe Islands:
Two new Covid-19 cases registered over the weekend (KVF.fo, Oct. 5, 2020)
My problems a few months ago with articles in Faroese about Russian trawlers and coronavirus are about to be solved:
Faroese language to feature on Google Translate (KVF.fo, Oct. 4, 2020)

Iceland:
Smittan ökar på Island – restriktioner skärps (DagensNyheter.se, Oct. 4, 2020)
The spread of the virus is increasing in Iceland – restrictions getting stricter

Denmark:
Skole indfører nye krav: 1.800 studerende skal bære mundbind hele dagen (DR.dk, Oct. 5, 2020)
[School introduces new regulations: 1,800 students have to wear face masks all day

12 smittet på plejehjem - 31 ansatte sendt hjem (TV2.dk, Oct. 5, 2020)
12 infected at nursing home – 31 care workers sent home

Sådan spredte virus sig i hjemmet, da ægtepar blev smittet med covid-19 (TV2.dk, Oct. 4, 2020)
How the virus spread in the home of a married couple when they contracted Covid-19
Interesting article with good illustrations

Norway/Sweden: TeTrIs versus herd-immunity strategy (in English!)

it made a significant difference whether experts based themselves on modelled projections based on key indicators and former experience, or whether they recommended testing and tracing as much as humanly possible, in order to acquire concrete, empirical data.
The countries that are doing best today, chose the latter. Tegnell, on the other hand, seemed almost obsessed with what stage Sweden was at “on the curve”, arguing that testing was futile in the phase he believed they had entered, based on the contagion he thought he saw. Consequently, few efforts were made to map out where the virus was spreading as clearly as possible.
The question is not whether Tegnell’s conviction was right or wrong at the time. The question is when he had enough certainty in his indications and simulated insight to make fateful decisions.
The coronavirus pandemic has taught us something important: Technocrats are no longer precautionary (ScienceNorway.no, June 28, 2020)

 

[Childlike Empress]

... because I keep updating Covid-19 numbers.

That's the result, not the cause. Think again.

Your heartfelt sorrows about POTUS seem to have been unwarranted, btw. He's going home with what he sought to achieve (there's a thread in CT that I'm sure has some overlaps with what some pseudo-skeptics are saying in the US-Politics thread).

 

[banquetbear]

No one wants to sacrifice 30k people.

...of course not.

You want to sacrifice 29,000 people. Lets get those numbers right.

I’m pretty sure the .6% rate is a case fatality rate which means that the number would likely be substantially lower unless you expect 100% of New Zealanders to get infected.

It would have to get pretty close 100% to that to get to that magical herd immunity!!!

Then when you consider that the covid death statistics are massaged by governments who have vested interests in keeping their innumerate citizens completely terrified, it puts that rate into even more perspective (think, skydivers with covid whose parachutes failed to open, counted as covid fatalities, plus countless other examples of retarded co-morbidities).

Here are the New Zealand statistics.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work...d-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

Which numbers are you suggesting have been "massaged?" What vested interests do the New Zealand government have in keeping us terrified? How many in New Zealand are actually terrified?

In a world of 7.8 billion people we have had 35 million “cases” (how many completely asymptomatic? Hmmm.....) and we’ve had just over one million deaths (all presumably due to covid, which you would have to be a fool to believe) for a supposed absolute death rate of... you might want to be sitting down for this, 0.012%.

The thing is: I know all of this. Its great that you've finally decided to stop throwing around the .6% figure. I know understanding all of this must be hard for you. Getting to grips with how a global pandemic works isn't the easiest.

We should hang our collective heads in shame for being a globe of innumerate cowards, completely unskeptical of media and government lies.

LOL.

This is skeptics board. Almost all of us are here because we are inherently skeptical. I'm skeptical of both the New Zealand media and the government. But you have a President who lies on average 5-10 times a day, and today the President literally just endorsed your sentiment here, so if ever there was a time for you to step up as skeptic and to address "government lies" then now is your moment.

Or are they only "government lies" when the government disagrees with you?

I’ve yet to have known a single person who has succumbed to this disease, the only reference being my friend’s 92 year old godfather who had a laundry list of co-morbidities and one foot in the grave. Such deadly!

Thanks for sharing your anecdote. It means absolutely nothing at all, of course. But thanks for sharing.

 

[banquetbear]

dann. It's time for a serious look in the mirror. Just admit - first to yourself - that this almost 60 pages long thread exists because of ...

Good luck!

...there is a thread in this forum about somebody who did a cartwheel in Italy that is currently on PART 30. Its a discussion that has been going since 2007. I have no idea what they could possibly be talking about in that thread now. But talking about the same stuff over-and-over again is what we do here. 60 pages is nothing. Its a baby thread.

 

[jimbob]

...there is a thread in this forum about somebody who did a cartwheel in Italy that is currently on PART 30. Its a discussion that has been going since 2007. I have no idea what they could possibly be talking about in that thread now. But talking about the same stuff over-and-over again is what we do here. 60 pages is nothing. Its a baby thread.

With a developing situation.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/5, 3:54pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 49,036
Australia 15
Sweden 0
Denmark 378
New Zealand 1

As is often the case the majority flock of humanity see only what they want to see. An example:


‘We felt we had beaten it’: New Zealand’s race to eliminate the coronavirus again.

This quote is being used (by some) as a sort of official proof of New Zealand having “eliminated” the virus. It is being misread by those with an agenda, shills, and the bubble-headed. Pay attention to the quotes themselves. More importantly notice closely where the quote begins and where it ends. In that statement Amanda Kvalsvig, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago in Wellington doesn’t say anything about eliminating the coronavirus again. In the linked article this is what she said:


“The new cases have been a shock. When they were announced, New Zealand had experienced more than 100 days with no identified community transmission, despite extensive testing. The country was at its lowest alert level, which allows near-normal activities, albeit with strict controls requiring travellers from overseas to remain in a quarantine facility for two weeks. There was a general feeling that we had beaten the virus — although government officials and public-health experts were warning against complacency.” etc.

Let us look at the initial quote once again:
‘We felt we had beaten it’.
Amanda Kvalsvig

‘New Zealand’s race to eliminate the coronavirus again’
Dyani Lewis, Nature, NEWS Q&A

All one has to do is (1) read it for one's self and (2) use one's reading comprehension skills as a benefit rather than a disability.

In addition to that …… the manipulation of statistics is overlooked entirely. Still.

 

[banquetbear]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/5, 3:54pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 49,036
Australia 15
Sweden 0
Denmark 378
New Zealand 1

As is often the case the majority flock of humanity see only what they want to see. An example:


‘We felt we had beaten it’: New Zealand’s race to eliminate the coronavirus again.

This quote is being used (by some) as a sort of official proof of New Zealand having “eliminated” the virus. It is being misread by those with an agenda, shills, and the bubble-headed. Pay attention to the quotes themselves. More importantly notice closely where the quote begins and where it ends. In that statement Amanda Kvalsvig, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago in Wellington doesn’t say anything about eliminating the coronavirus again. In the linked article this is what she said:


“The new cases have been a shock. When they were announced, New Zealand had experienced more than 100 days with no identified community transmission, despite extensive testing. The country was at its lowest alert level, which allows near-normal activities, albeit with strict controls requiring travellers from overseas to remain in a quarantine facility for two weeks. There was a general feeling that we had beaten the virus — although government officials and public-health experts were warning against complacency.” etc.

Let us look at the initial quote once again:
‘We felt we had beaten it’.
Amanda Kvalsvig

‘New Zealand’s race to eliminate the coronavirus again’
Dyani Lewis, Nature, NEWS Q&A

All one has to do is (1) read it for one's self and (2) use one's reading comprehension skills as a benefit rather than a disability.

In addition to that …… the manipulation of statistics is overlooked entirely. Still.

...can somebody explain what this post is all about? Why is Clutch Cargo quoting an article headline from two months ago, describing the second resurgence (that I've been talking about) that we've now finished stamping out? What manipulation of statistics are we overlooking entirely?

 

[dann]

...can somebody explain what this post is all about? Why is Clutch Cargo quoting an article headline from two months ago, describing the second resurgence (that I've been talking about) that we've now finished stamping out? What manipulation of statistics are we overlooking entirely?

It is obvious why he quotes the title, leaves out the subheading, and doesn't link to the article.
Genomics could reveal details about the source of the country’s first outbreak in more than 100 days, says epidemiologist Amanda Kvalsvig. (Nature, Aug. 14, 2020)

This is much more dishonest and manipulative than I suspected. I thought his posts were the result of not being able to sleep at night and posting rubbish in the early hours of he morning, too exhausted to understand any of it. This seems to be very deliberate misdirection.

 

[steenkh]

Death is inevitable for all of us. Living in fear is not.

I hear this often, but I do not get it. Why some people think that we are living in fear of we take simple precautions to prevent us being ill with a potentially deadly disease? Do we live in fear if we do not speed when we drive our car? OK, I admit that a lot of motorists that I know actually only stick to speed limits because they are afraid of getting fined, but some also do it because they think the rules are sensible and they do not want to put themselves - or others - in jeopardy. Is that living in fear?

Speeding certainly is deadly, but only rarely. Most people who get a ticket are not involved in an accident, so are traffic laws just tyrannical measures to cow the population?

 

[Samson]

I hear this often, but I do not get it. Why some people think that we are living in fear of we take simple precautions to prevent us being ill with a potentially deadly disease? Do we live in fear if we do not speed when we drive our car? OK, I admit that a lot of motorists that I know actually only stick to speed limits because they are afraid of getting fined, but some also do it because they think the rules are sensible and they do not want to put themselves - or others - in jeopardy. Is that living in fear?

Speeding certainly is deadly, but only rarely. Most people who get a ticket are not involved in an accident, so are traffic laws just tyrannical measures to cow the population?

That is a really interesting post.
I drive well inside the speed limit because I enjoy everything I See at leisure.
I really enjoy living in New Zealand right now because we are operating in a paradigm that allows freedom with restraint. We do not want carnage whether speeding or rampant COVID.
Boring but the kids are alright.

 

[Rolfe]

Never taking any precautions to avoid harm because that's "living in fear" doesn't seem like a good survival trait to me.

 

[dann]

I hear this often, but I do not get it. Why some people think that we are living in fear of we take simple precautions to prevent us being ill with a potentially deadly disease?

They not only want to believe, they need to believe.
It's like when astrologists tell us that skeptics don't believe in horoscopes because they fear the truth about themselves. Or when Christians talk about the question atheists fear (Conservapedia).

 

[Tippit]

OK, I admit that a lot of motorists that I know actually only stick to speed limits because they are afraid of getting fined, but some also do it because they think the rules are sensible and they do not want to put themselves - or others - in jeopardy. Is that living in fear?

It depends on the road conditions, and the car’s suspension, tires, and brakes, which is why posted speed limits vary, of course. I’m not going to condemn slow drivers, but at the same time highways in the US have posted minimums for a reason.

Speeding certainly is deadly, but only rarely. Most people who get a ticket are not involved in an accident, so are traffic laws just tyrannical measures to cow the population?

Traffic laws? No. As a resident of Florida, in the US, I think speed limit laws are often set arbitrarily low, probably for revenue, but this has to account for all cars and road conditions. I think in most cases, they are set low enough to give police discretion, which bothers me. In practice most everyone here drives 15-20% over the speed limit, and police can pull over and fine whoever they choose. I think this is problematic for a number of reasons, but in my own experience I have only gotten a ticket that I did not truly deserve only once.

I drive a sports car fast, sometimes very fast, but not recklessly and always with respect for other drivers on the road and with an awareness of conditions and the use of signaling.

I think most people intuitively know how to drive safely, but it is numeracy and reason that is required to navigate this pandemic, and it is here that I think many come up short.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dann]

CC today, Tuesday Oct. 6:

Data last updated: 2020/10/5, 3:54pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

Sweden 0

Meanwhile, back in the real world:

Tuesday, Sep. 15: Sweden: 840* *since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Sep. 22: Sweden: 1199* *since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Sep. 29: 1,543 since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesdag, Oct. 6: 1,862 since Friday, according to SVT.se

 

[dann]

Swedish press briefing right now: on SVT.se. Some questions in English.
The total number of deaths has been lowered by 12 to 5,883, so I have no idea how many deaths there have been since Friday.

 

[dann]

Stockholm’s sewage water shows that the coronavirus is increasing fast in the region. The virus contagion has doubled in September and is approaching the high levels from spring this year, according to the researchers at the KTH.
In the study, we can see a very clear increase in the number of Covid-19 cases, which isn’t due to more tests, says Zeynep Cetecioglu Gurol, university lecturer and KTH researcher.
Sewage water shows that the amount of virus is rising massively in Stockholm

Statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell menar att KTH:s analys av avloppsvattnet bara bekräftar vad man redan vet – att covid-19 smittan ökar i Stockholm. Men det handlar inte om någon andra virusvåg.
– Det är att ta i alldeles för mycket, säger statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell.
Anders Tegnell: ”Att kalla det en andra våg är att ta i” (DagensNyheter.se, Oct. 5, 2020)

National epidemiologist Anders Tegnell thinks that KTH’s analysis of sewage water only confirms what is already known – that Covid-19 transmission is increasing in Stockholm. But it is not a second wave of the virus.
– That would be an overinterpretation, says national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.
Anders Tegnell: ”Calling it a second wave would be overinterpretation”

 

[Childlike Empress]

The total number of deaths has been lowered by 12 to 5,883, so I have no idea how many deaths there have been since Friday.

Oh noes, how shall we survive without this key information?