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2020 Presidential Election

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Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with covid – EXCLUSIVE
DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.
express.co.uk

(Daily Express, a UK Tabloid is quoting a poll by 'The Democracy Institute')
Click to expand...

The Democracy Institute poll is so exclusive it only polls those wearing MAGA hats while buying guns in Georgia and flying Confederate flags from pickup trucks.
 
In conversations like this, where (predominantly) Americans are contributing, the fact of voter suppression is bandied about as almost a ho-hum thing baked into the recipe. The populace is practically inured to it. It no longer engenders explosions of rage.

This is a sad indictment of the pseudo-democracy practiced by the US. This political system is sick and rotten. Despicably so.
 
Lurch said:
In conversations like this, where (predominantly) Americans are contributing, the fact of voter suppression is bandied about as almost a ho-hum thing baked into the recipe. The populace is practically inured to it. It no longer engenders explosions of rage.

This is a sad indictment of the pseudo-democracy practiced by the US. This political system is sick and rotten. Despicably so.
Click to expand...

And you have a plan to fix this, or are you jest wallowing in fashonable depair and angst>
 
Stacyhs said:
The Democracy Institute poll is so exclusive it only polls those wearing MAGA hats while buying guns in Georgia and flying Confederate flags from pickup trucks.
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Certainly does not agree with the vast majority of polls.
Citing a single poll is meanngless, particulray when might well have a built in bias.
 
Lurch said:
In conversations like this, where (predominantly) Americans are contributing, the fact of voter suppression is bandied about as almost a ho-hum thing baked into the recipe. The populace is practically inured to it. It no longer engenders explosions of rage.
Click to expand...

We're just as jaded to police brutality, marital infidelity, and cheating on taxes. But god help you if you cut in line at something, nobody will help you when you get your butt beaten for that. The American character is a quirky one.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

(Daily Express, a UK Tabloid is quoting a poll by 'The Democracy Institute')
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The Democracy Institute makes no mention of any poll. Odd that. Surely - SURELY - Trump wouldn't lie to us, would he?

Captain_Swoop said:
Just checked and the Democracy Institute is not recognised as a legitimate polling entity. It is not listed by RCP or 538. It releases polls exclusively for the Daily Express.
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Hmmmm. I used the one in Wikipedia. Is there another one?
 
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SezMe said:
Note some of those maps have Texas turning blue. It's not likely but not unthinkable as it has been in the past. Biden is tied there! If my counting is right, Biden can lose every swing state and still become president if he takes Texas.
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Texas and Florida are the states to watch. I think there's a shy Biden voter factor and a first time voter factor in Texas the polls might not be hitting. Suburban women and first time Latinx voters I suspect are under counted.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/po...ration-surges-trump-biden-record-15586286.php

Florida is the state to watch because it will likely announce earlier than any other battleground state and tell us if Trump has a map to 270.
 
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Craig4 said:
Texas and Florida are the states to watch. I think there's a shy Biden voter factor and a first time voter factor in Texas the polls might not be hitting. Suburban women and first time Latinx voters I suspect are under counted.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/po...ration-surges-trump-biden-record-15586286.php

Florida is the state to watch because it will likely announce earlier than any other battleground state and tell us if Trump has a map to 270.
Click to expand...

Why do you think Florida will announce earlier? (I could not access the article.) I think Florida will be called late, probably not even election night.

I don;t think Biden will take Texas. It would be a nice surprise, but I'm not counting on it.

The key state is Pennsylvania. Trump has very few paths to win if he doesn't get Florida and Pennsylvania. If Biden gets Pennsylvania he likely gets other key rust belt states. If Biden gets Florida he probably also gets Pennsylvania and then it probably starts toward a landslide.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with covid – EXCLUSIVE
DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.
express.co.uk

(Daily Express, a UK Tabloid is quoting a poll by 'The Democracy Institute')
Click to expand...
Just checked and the Democracy Institute is not recognised as a legitimate polling entity. It is not listed by RCP or 538. It releases polls exclusively for the Daily Express.
Click to expand...
The fact that the polls are not listed with RCP or 538 is certainly one red flag.

A few other issues:

- The Democracy Institute is a think tank that has links to the CATO institute, and has a Libertarian bias. (While that does not automatically means it is wrong, but it does mean that some skepticism should be warranted.)

- According to Media Bias Fact Check, Daily Express is a news source that has both a very strong right-wing bias, and at best a 'mixed' record on accuracy

Oh, and you know how Trump claimed he is winning 'despite being hospitalized'? According to the article in the Express, the poll was taken between Sep30 and Oct2... So most people were surveyed long before the news of Trump's illness became public knowledge. The express makes a similar claim, so their own article doesn't agree with the data they themselves presented.
 
DevilsAdvocate said:
Texas and Florida are the states to watch. I think there's a shy Biden voter factor and a first time voter factor in Texas the polls might not be hitting. Suburban women and first time Latinx voters I suspect are under counted.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/pol...d-15586286.php

Florida is the state to watch because it will likely announce earlier than any other battleground state and tell us if Trump has a map to 270.
Click to expand...
Why do you think Florida will announce earlier? (I could not access the article.)
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I didn't see anything in the article that would indicate why Texas would be slower to announce results that florida. (It talks about having more voter registrations, which could slow things down, but I assume all states are having that issue.)

What could make a difference is that Florida will start processing its mail in ballots over a week before the election, whereas Texas will only start half a week before. The earlier start in florida might mean they get everything done by election night.

Florida also has a deadline to receive ballots by election day... texas will count ballots that are received the day after the election (as long as they are postmarked by election day). So Texas may not even have all the ballots available for counting on election night.
 
The three possible types of outcome, in order from best for the country to worst for the country:
1. Biden wins, but barely
2. Biden wins by a wide margin
3. Trump wins (by whatever margin)
The reason for the separation between the two ways for Biden to win is that the size of the margin of victory can affect the conflict within his party, he is the wrong kind of Democrat.

So, when it looked like we were probably heading for 1 with some risk of 3, it was both hopeful and worrying, like a game coming down to the last second with one team slightly ahead but the other close to scoring for the comeback win. The outcome would definitely be either the best possibility or the worst possibility.

Now that we're shifting more toward a 2, it's both depressing and de-worrying; there's less & less chance of getting the best possible remaining outcome, but at least there's also less & less risk of the worst.
 
Delvo said:
The three possible types of outcome, in order from best for the country to worst for the country:
1. Biden wins, but barely
2. Biden wins by a wide margin
3. Trump wins (by whatever margin)
The reason for the separation between the two ways for Biden to win is that the size of the margin of victory can affect the conflict within his party, he is the wrong kind of Democrat.

So, when it looked like we were probably heading for 1 with some risk of 3, it was both hopeful and worrying, like a game coming down to the last second with one team slightly ahead but the other close to scoring for the comeback win. The outcome would definitely be either the best possibility or the worst possibility.

Now that we're shifting more toward a 2, it's both depressing and de-worrying; there's less & less chance of getting the best possible remaining outcome, but at least there's also less & less risk of the worst.
Click to expand...

I think it's preferable for there to be as little room for doubt about the results as possible, and a close race leaves room for Trump to fire up his people to potentially riot. We need to get over that possible hump first.

You say that a huge Biden victory allows establishment Democrats to pull the 2020 card whenever progressives act up. I believe there could be some element of that, but I think there will also be pressure on his administration (and possibly a Dem Congress) to perform like nothing before.

Bernie Sanders, AOC, Ilhan Omar, etc were not well known a decade ago. I believe there will be more fellow Democrats holding the Biden admin's feet to the fire than before.
 
Segnosaur said:
I didn't see anything in the article that would indicate why Texas would be slower to announce results that florida. (It talks about having more voter registrations, which could slow things down, but I assume all states are having that issue.)

What could make a difference is that Florida will start processing its mail in ballots over a week before the election, whereas Texas will only start half a week before. The earlier start in florida might mean they get everything done by election night.

Florida also has a deadline to receive ballots by election day... texas will count ballots that are received the day after the election (as long as they are postmarked by election day). So Texas may not even have all the ballots available for counting on election night.
Click to expand...

Thanks. So Florida may be called earlier than Texas, but only if Texas is really close (which I don't think will happen).

But I don't think Florida will be called before many other battleground states (maybe before Ohio).
 
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