The Roe Countdown

[The Great Zaganza]

You expect Trump's nominee to expand SCOTUS and pack the court?

troll

 

[Suddenly]

Thanks. So what kind of case would the court need to hear, in order to have an opportunity to overturn Roe?

Would it have to be a case about women's health, or health at all? Could it be any case that turns on the right to privacy or due process under the 14th Amendment?

The obvious way would be a state banning abortion or onerous restrictions on same and trying to enforce it. Then there is a suit to block the law, and the state writes a brief arguing Roe was wrongly decided. This would be the simple and direct route.

With Roberts being Chief Judge and having the 5th vote this front door approach is not likely to work. Make no mistake: the Roberts court is going to get rid of what is left of Roe, just that it would be a part of their comprehensive and systematic transformation of the law to serve the powerful rather than the powerless. Roe is small potatoes. They want that whole zone of privacy area of the law gone. They probably will bring their weaponization of religious freedom in there at some point. They have a lot of ominous irons in the fire.

If the new justice changes the balance of power there is every chance they have five votes to go through that front door.

 

[theprestige]

troll

Joke or aside. It's literally what he wrote.

 

[angrysoba]

The obvious way would be a state banning abortion or onerous restrictions on same and trying to enforce it. Then there is a suit to block the law, and the state writes a brief arguing Roe was wrongly decided. This would be the simple and direct route.

With Roberts being Chief Judge and having the 5th vote this front door approach is not likely to work. Make no mistake: the Roberts court is going to get rid of what is left of Roe, just that it would be a part of their comprehensive and systematic transformation of the law to serve the powerful rather than the powerless. Roe is small potatoes. They want that whole zone of privacy area of the law gone. They probably will bring their weaponization of religious freedom in there at some point. They have a lot of ominous irons in the fire.

If the new justice changes the balance of power there is every chance they have five votes to go through that front door.

I get that the Republicans are the party of the religious right, but is that ALL they are? My assumption was that the GOP is more of a coalition of right-wing interests which are not always in harmony. In other words, yes the religious right - particularly Evangelicals, but also libertarians who don’t want government interference (would they really want an abolition of the right of privacy?), as well as business interests who take a less moralizing view of things and would prefer to continue to receive money from industries that the right rail against (alcohol, gambling, the “pink” dollar, etc...). I don’t think it is in their business interests to go full-Gilead.

But hey, I don’t live there. Much of what I say is born from incredulity. I personally find it hard to believe that almost half the country is in thrall to either the religious right or the weird personality cult around Trump.

 

[Suddenly]

I get that the Republicans are the party of the religious right, but is that ALL they are? My assumption was that the GOP is more of a coalition of right-wing interests which are not always in harmony. In other words, yes the religious right - particularly Evangelicals, but also libertarians who don’t want government interference (would they really want an abolition of the right of privacy?), as well as business interests who take a less moralizing view of things and would prefer to continue to receive money from industries that the right rail against (alcohol, gambling, the “pink” dollar, etc...). I don’t think it is in their business interests to go full-Gilead.

But hey, I don’t live there. Much of what I say is born from incredulity. I personally find it hard to believe that almost half the country is in thrall to either the religious right or the weird personality cult around Trump.

They aren't. This all makes more sense once it is accepted that the goal of the GOP is to concentrate power and wealth in as few hands as possible because they are terrified of losing political control to what they see as rabble who will cause society to collapse. Call it fascism or whatever, that is the goal. It was also the goal of most of the so called founding fathers, but so it goes.

The religious stuff is mostly to leverage a base. It has direct uses, such as when religious freedom is weaponized in order to frustrate civil rights laws and to help expand the rights of corporations. It also is a proxy for white nationalism in that these freedoms only seem to matter in the context of selected Christian ideals. Also, it is a pretense to restrict the reproductive autonomy of women, which is also seen as a threat.

The prosperity gospel is the best and most blatant example of melding this sort of oligarchical despotism with Christianity.

 

[Emily's Cat]

3 Trump lackeys changes the dynamic of the court, although...

I could be wrong, of course, but I'm not under the impression that Trump is pro-life.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I could be wrong, of course, but I'm not under the impression that Trump is pro-life.

and that matters how?

He made a pact with the fanatical pro-life Women of the Right and got the nomination because of it.
And he can't win 2020 without them.
And ACB is their Chosen One.

What Trump thinks is that he doesn't care who's on the SC as long as he gets re-elected.

 

[cosmicaug]

I could be wrong, of course, but I'm not under the impression that Trump is pro-life.

And Saddam Hussein was probably not a devout Muslim. It didn't stop him from Koran thumping in his later years in the Gulf Wars era.

 

[Trebuchet]

and that matters how?

He made a pact with the fanatical pro-life Women of the Right and got the nomination because of it.
And he can't win 2020 without them.
And ACB is their Chosen One.

What Trump thinks is that he doesn't care who's on the SC as long as he gets re-elected.

Fixed that for you. It's almost entirely men behind the pro-fetus movement. They may use some women as convenient stooges, but it's male driven. And they are not remotely "pro-life", mostly supporting the death penalty. Especially for sluts who have an abortion.

 

[The Atheist]

I could be wrong, of course, but I'm not under the impression that Trump is pro-life.

He's not, but he knows his supporters are and that they care more about abortion than any other subject. Christ knows why - see the "Republicans are misanthropes" thread.

They see it as god's work to bring unwanted children into a planet that already has 7.5 billion people.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Fixed that for you. It's almost entirely men behind the pro-fetus movement. They may use some women as convenient stooges, but it's male driven. And they are not remotely "pro-life", mostly supporting the death penalty. Especially for sluts who have an abortion.

Unfortunately, you are wrong.
Slut-shaming is a decidedly female trait:


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/tru...ortion-rights-group-susan-b-anthony-list.html

Trump got his nomination through SBA-list support, and ACB is their pick, not his.

 

[The Atheist]

Slut-shaming is a decidedly female trait:

1 If you believe that, you need to get out more.

2 The article you linked to provides no evidence for the statement, and doesn't even show anti-abortion is predominantly female-driven.

3 You may have heard of the Roman Catholic Church. Its anti-abortion stance is entirely driven by men, and they have a lot more members than SBAL. Not to mention a helluva lot more than 50M bucks and infinitely more influence.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

yeah, but the Catholic Church doesn't go into politics that much.

Look, I'm not making this up.

Here is an interview with Marjorie Dannenfelser,head of the SBA List:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/podcasts/the-daily/supreme-court-trump-roe-v-wade.html

 

[theprestige]

I'm pretty sure there's plenty of dudes who are into slut shaming. I bet it's mostly dudes who have what they see as a proprietary interest in the woman in question. Jealous partners, over protective fathers, etc.

But I bet most dudes are all about the slut exploitation. And that most slut shaming comes from women who are afraid of the exploitation as a social norm, or are ideologically opposed to it.

 

[TragicMonkey]

1 If you believe that, you need to get out more.

2 The article you linked to provides no evidence for the statement, and doesn't even show anti-abortion is predominantly female-driven.

3 You may have heard of the Roman Catholic Church. Its anti-abortion stance is entirely driven by men, and they have a lot more members than SBAL. Not to mention a helluva lot more than 50M bucks and infinitely more influence.

The Roman Catholic Church is also against the death penalty, and hasn't managed to sway much American opinion on that. Catholic influence only counts when it's added to evangelical Protestants' influence, and they just happen to agree on abortion.

 

[The Atheist]

yeah, but the Catholic Church doesn't go into politics that much.

Wow, I feel the need for a head-exploding emoji.

There are countries outside USA, you know, and the RCC has massive influence in politics across the globe.

As Money noted, the effect of anti-abortion in USA is aided enormously by both evangelicals and Catholics being in unison on the subject, and I don't know whether you'd noticed, but the front runner to replace RBG is a staunch anti-abortion Catholic.

 

[Ziggurat]

I'm pretty sure there's plenty of dudes who are into slut shaming. I bet it's mostly dudes who have what they see as a proprietary interest in the woman in question. Jealous partners, over protective fathers, etc.

But I bet most dudes are all about the slut exploitation. And that most slut shaming comes from women who are afraid of the exploitation as a social norm, or are ideologically opposed to it.

Blaming the patriarchy for slut shaming never made sense to me. From a simple game theory perspective, it was always obvious that women had more motive to slut shame other women than men ever did.

 

[Ziggurat]

BTW, is it now obvious to everyone that those of use who picked SCOTUS won’t pick up a case were right, and everyone else was wrong? Or are there still some holdouts?

 

[TragicMonkey]

Blaming the patriarchy for slut shaming never made sense to me. From a simple game theory perspective, it was always obvious that women had more motive to slut shame other women than men ever did.

You're forgetting possessiveness. The stereotypical patriarchial man has no objection to a woman (or many women) being intimate with him, but gets upset at the suspicion that/those same woman/women might get intimate with other men as well. A slutty woman, therefore, is a risk because the more open she is to getting down with him, the more likely it seems she might be doing the same with others. Woman are possessions and can't belong to multiple owners without conflict arising: it'd be trampling on his property rights, and exhibiting disrespect, and suggesting he's too weak to defend his possession from other men.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Wow, I feel the need for a head-exploding emoji.

There are countries outside USA, you know, and the RCC has massive influence in politics across the globe.

As Money noted, the effect of anti-abortion in USA is aided enormously by both evangelicals and Catholics being in unison on the subject, and I don't know whether you'd noticed, but the front runner to replace RBG is a staunch anti-abortion Catholic.

Catholics might donate and campaign against abortion, the Church itself doesn't do a lot in the US; plenty abroad I grant you.

But after the sex scandals, they prefer to stay out of the news.


Seems to me that you are not considering my actual point, that being that there is a very vocal, influential group of conservative women supporting Trump under the condition that he gives them their SC candidate to undo Roe.