There might be some great revelation waiting to come out. I just think it's foolish to assume because he resists either one that there must be some Watergate tapes like secret that he is hiding. It's not as if there is a shortage of times where he was about to be destroyed by some testimony, or revelation only for it not to pan out. This time the swan could be black, but I can't imagine why one would have any confidence that it would be.
Predction: Trump will be pardoned by Biden if he wins
- Thread starter ChristianProgressive
- Start date
We've had so many "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erode Trump's support!" and "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erode Trump's support and this time I mean it" and "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erod Trump's support and this time I mean it and this time I mean it when I say I mean it" moments it's no longer funny. And the continued insistence of some "Death of a Thousand Cuts" going on behind the scenes that were going to finally start effecting Trump "any day now" never panned out either.
We have to accept that Trump's support is just coming from a fundamentally different mentality then other Presidents, even bad or evil ones. He can't be stained because he wears his dirt with such pride.
We have to accept that Trump's support is just coming from a fundamentally different mentality then other Presidents, even bad or evil ones. He can't be stained because he wears his dirt with such pride.
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Yes, but how will those 12 people be chosen? If they are representative of the country at large you are going to have to convince the people I'm talking about to turn away from him. Jury selection is going to be very interesting if they are going to get a jury that doesn't already have strong opinions about Trump.
You still have the wider political and societal consequences if you convict him of something big and 40% of the voting public think it was political revenge. From a utilitarian point of view, I'm not sure that you wouldn't be doing more harm than good.
I have answered this question already upthread to another poster:
Where you draw the line, or where I draw the line is just not important to the question of whether Trump will be pardoned, or ever convicted of something significant enough to punish him for the things you think he's done. Even if our "lines" were important, the main disagreement is whether he has done these terrible crimes. If I could snap my fingers and enforce "my line", I would expect Washington to look like the rapture had happened.
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There is a lot of Truth in this. If you get voted in passing yourself off as a beacon of moral probity and you get caught paying hush money to a prostitute, it's a problem. If your schtick is acting like Rodney Dangerfield, nobody is going to care. It might even make you more popular if you carry it off with the right flair.
The last 4 years has been like watching Caddyshack, or Back to School on a loop.
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Okay seriously walk me through what could be in his tax returns that is going to be worse then... you know I'm sick of listing all the stuff Trump has done at this point, let's just say *Gestures widely at Trump* all of that.
Trump is a troll who gets off on seeing what he can get away with. He doesn't want us to see his tax returns because we want to see his tax return. There not being anything them any worse then all the other stuff he's done fits in just fine with his mentality.
So seriously what are we expecting to find in these tax returns? Hush money? Backdoor Russian money? The fact that his fortune is probably nowhere near as big as he wants us to think? None of that is going to matter.
Trump is a troll who gets off on seeing what he can get away with. He doesn't want us to see his tax returns because we want to see his tax return. There not being anything them any worse then all the other stuff he's done fits in just fine with his mentality.
So seriously what are we expecting to find in these tax returns? Hush money? Backdoor Russian money? The fact that his fortune is probably nowhere near as big as he wants us to think? None of that is going to matter.
Again I don't know how clearer the Trumpers can make their case for "Trump has no standards, therefore he cannot commit the unforgivable sin of having standards but not living up to them."
The only sin the Trumpers recognize is having a standard you don't live up a strawman version of 100% of the time and the way they manifest this is to worship someone who has no standards at all. You can be evil. You cannot be pretentious, hypocritical, dramatic, "not as smart as you think you are" or anything like that.
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I would agree that that is a possibility. You then have an extended version of that that if they are built up and built up, and there isn't any huge revelation hidden there, then he can add it to the list of damp squibs. It could also be that even if his tax returns are no worse than any other billionaire property mogul, that opinion writers will be able to write articles about how shocked they are regardless of whether there is actually anything shocking. There is no benefit to handing any of this info over if he doesn't have to.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
Not sure why you think its "foolish". I think there are significant reasons to believe his tax returns/financial details are hiding something serious, either illegal activities or politically damaging.
We have for example testimony from Cohen (who worked with Trump for over a decade) and from investigations from the NY Times (that may have been based on inside knowledge from the Trump family) that he engaged in some sketchy activities that could be considered fraudulent... things like overvaluing property in order to obtain bank loans.
We also know that Trump has broken rules regarding charitable organizations.... it would not be that much of a step up for him to violate tax laws or other such rules.
And if there really was nothing damaging in Trump's financials, why didn't he release them? It is costing him a lot... both money-wise (those lawyers don't come cheap) and politically. If there were really nothing in his tax returns, he could have just released them, then said "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!". Would have saved him a lot in legal fees and would have given him something to brag about. But he didn't do that... He's fighting tooth and nail to keep things hidden.
There are 2 issues here... what could be damaging to Trump legally (fines and/or jail time) and what could be damaging politcaly.
When it comes to the legal issues.... Society is often quite lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. For example, Manafort's was charged with crimes that went back roughly a decade, and may never have been charged if he had not gotten involved with Trump (since that helped draw attention to his activities). Trump is likely in the same boat... engaging in various types of fraud, and his crimes not getting punished because financial crimes are not often investigated. But now that he's president, people actually want to examine his (likely) illegal activities, and he's fighting to keep stuff hidden.
As for politically... he has only fought one election, and that was against an unpopular Democrat. Its a little early to say that he's invulnerable to certain revelations. Yes, there are hardcore Trump supporters who will vote for him regardless. Yes, Republican congress critters are almost all boot-lickers who enable the worst of Trump's excesses. But, you can't win an election just on the hardcore backers... you need at least some moderates/undecideds. Trump seems to be in a serious political battle... trailing Biden in multiple polls, and if things don't change he could be slaughtered in the next election (bringing the Republican party down with him). If his taxes reveal he is actually broke, or that there are russian ties, or that he has broken the law, then it may cause some of those moderates he needs to win to sit out the election.
I don't think that is really true. It would have to be something that would have made Rodney Dangerfield unlikable to people who find Rodney Dangerfield likable.
This is where we differ. Take the prototypical christian conservative politician of the 80s who goes on and on about the evils of homosexuality and is chasing twinks when nobody is looking. He only spends a couple of hours licking rohypnol off his catamite on Sundays when his wife thinks he's helping out at a church group. 99% of the time he lives up to his public principles.... it's ridiculous that people call him a hypocrite. Jeffrey Dahmer wasn't murdering anybody 99.999% of the time, yet everybody focuses on the insignificant proportion of his life when he did. Kamala spent a trivial amount of her life smoking marijuana, putting people away for possession of marijuana, or laughing about it. The % of your day you spend on these things isn't that important.
I've heard this too many times over the past 4 years. Either he is phenomenally lucky, or some people are very bad at predicting when he's going to be wiped out.
It doesn't matter. How many times has somebody from a respectable establishment newspaper, or some disgruntled former official told us that their sources say they have the smoking gun and a week from now Trump will be finished, and then it doesn't pan out. What is special about this time?
Yes, but the charity thing didn't have him carted off in handcuffs, or stop him being president. I'm not saying there is no possibility of them getting him, but past form on this doesn't seem very encouraging.
I doubt those lawyers cost him that much, and is it really costing him politically? People seem much more concerned about riots and covid.
No matter what is in his tax returns, it seems to me there will be loose threads and details to speculate over that will fill as many newspaper front pages, and talking head segments as the Democrat media choose to throw at it. Meanwhile "there was nothing there" can be said in a sentence. If he has some cunning way to play the reveal that favours him and ends up looking like the Rachel Maddow "I have his Taxes" gaff, then he's going to be waiting to the right moment to do it. Why waste a "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!"?
I doubt the legal fees are keeping him up at night. Right now, why would he want to give people something to talk about other than the rioting?
Sure, he's not a naive innocent who believes he is being asked for his tax returns by people with no motivation for getting access to them other than to double check the IRS's homework. Of course he isn't cooperating.
Indeed. Turning the story off the riots would damage him politically at the moment regardless of whether there was anything damaging in the tax returns.
All perfectly possible.
Spartan quotes aside, I agree that the real consequence of any significance that is in play is the loss of the election.
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We'll have to agree to disagree about "magnitudes worse" and what precisely he is guilty of. The point is, Trump's case for the Presidency doesn't depend on a claim of personal morality. The Democrat's case is based around Trump being too immoral to be President, hence if they have a scandal they look like hypocrites in a way Trump can't.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
Trump has basically been protected (at least against legal repercussions) for the past 4 years, partly by the position of being president, partly by a corrupt department of justice.
You do realize he is president, don't you, and that the DOJ has a rule against having criminal proceedings against a sitting president.
Once again... Trump does not have to be 'phenomenally lucky'.... The U.S. is often lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. (As I had pointed out before, people like Manafort went over a decade before they attracted unwanted attention.) That Trump would last years/decades without fraud being investigated is pretty much par for the course.
And we've also had cases where people have been arrested after various investigations and 'smoking guns'.
Look at Bernie Maddoff... suspicious were raised about his activities as far back as 1999... it did take years for the feds to actually prosecute, but it did happen.
Trump likely has skeletons in his closet.... things that he could probably get charged for and get subject to either fines or jail time.
By the way, you seem to be confusing 2 different issues here: Whether there is something potentially damaging in his financial statements (which evidence suggests there is) and whether he is (or might) get punished for it.
Well for one, unlike his career pre-politics, he's drawn unwanted attention to himself.
And two, unlike the past 4 years, there is a significant chance that he will find himself without the protection afforded to being a sitting president.
No it didn't. But it did cost him a lot of money. However, the penalties for some of the other types of fraud he was engaged in can have some serious penalties. Remember, Cohen ended up going to jail, for engaging in some of the same crimes Trump has engaged in. If Cohen can go to jail for those crimes, in theory Trump could as well.
Which is irrelevant, since Trump has been protected by the DOJ (something that may possibly end in November) and boot-licking republican congress-critters (who won't be able to do much to help once he is out of office.)
Trump can be notoriously cheap. We are talking about a guy who used Trump foundation charity funds to pay for his son's boy scout fees.
And you might want to ask yourself... If Trump is so wealthy that the cost of some high-price lawyers isn't that important to him, why did he run the Trump U. scam? He was (as he claimed) a multi-billionaire, yet he was trying to scam people for just a few million.
My point being... if he is as cheap and/or as broke as it looks, then paying for lawyers to keep his taxes hidden would be a major outlay for him, and there must be a reason for that.
Its not a major election factor, but in a close race, every vote counts. Even a few hundred votes here and there from voters who have concerns over integrity in a key swing state could mean the difference between winning and losing an election.
Other presidential candidates have released their tax returns, despite the chance that the opposition might have their own motivations. Clinton did. Obama did. Bush Jr. did. Yet Trump hasn't. You asked the question before "what's different/what's changed". Well, ask yourself the same question now... "what's different with Trump".
All things are possible. I think given the number of variables, no predictions of what is going to happen that far out are worth much. That said, I think when he goes, he will go more gracefully than you think.
Sure, things change, but aren't we getting close to the gamblers fallacy here? Given the effort that has gone in to finding mud to throw at him, what reason is there to think there is some killing blow waiting out there that wasn't used in 2016, didn't come out in Russiagate, didn't come out during impeachment, wasn't dredged up in some sordid back alley by Avenatti, hasn't been leaked by anybody to MSNBC? Are we thinking they have held on to something all this time, or that they fluked it and just like how your keys are always in the last pocket you check.... somehow they only recently found Trumps final horcrux?
I think you are relying on Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns". The world is a chaotic place, so it's possible. We'll find out in October, I guess.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
A partial list of some of the potential crimes that Trump has engaged in (that could lead to jail time and/or major fines):
- Violation of election spending laws (e.g. stormy daniels payments)
- Bank fraud (overestimating value of property to get loans)
- Tax fraud (underestimating property values for tax purposes)
- Money Laundering (on behalf of Russian interests)
- Perjury (lying on statements made to Mueller)
- Bribery (Ukraine incident)
Some of these are related to his political career (e.g. spending laws, perjury), others predate the 2016 election. But all of them could in theory lead to jail time.
First of all, we're not just talking about the 'case for the presidency'. The purpose of this thread was to talk about Biden pardoning Trump for various crimes (post presidency).
And secondly, remember that Trump himself has claimed innocence with respect to his various crimes.
Its not just Trump's immorality, its also his incompetence.
Of course, as we have pointed out, the top if this thread is whether Biden will pardon Trump for these (and other) crimes.
There is no objective way of quantifying lies. Anybody who claims to put a number to one candidates lies vs another is being a dishonest, partisan hack.
Your side is the golf club establishment, Trump is Rodney Dangerfield. He outrages you. Keeping a list of all the terrible things he has done in public just proves that he is uncouth and does dubious things in public that respectable people do in private. You are going up against people who think your side gin up racial hatred and allege sex crimes against people for political advantage. You don't see it like that, but that doesn't matter. Your list of the 10,000 times MSNBC says Trump has lied isn't going to impress anybody who thinks that "hands up don't shoot" is a long debunked lie, and the Democrats start riots by supporting things like that while knowing it is false.
I go back to my IF post. People have been claiming that this kind of stuff is going to finish him and he is going to jail since what feels like forever. Either it comes out in the next few weeks, or they don't have it. As for going after him out of office... 99% of the point of going after him will evaporate the moment he is out.
In theory isn't the argument.
I think that is related in the sense that his popularity isn't based on being a choirboy, and that I think it is going to be very hard to prosecute him while he is popular.
Of course he has. He's hardly going to say "why certainly I violated election law". Why would he?
I wish that I was as resilient to the consequences of my incompetence as Trump.
I go back to saying that the main reason for doing that would be if it was politically convenient for Biden to do it. If he pardons him, it is because there is no political will to prosecute him. Without political will to prosecute him, I don't think he will be prosecuted.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
I doubt anyone here expected he would be arrested while he was still acting as president. If he were to be prosecuted/jailed, it would have been after his term was done.
Ummmm... no.
It takes time to gather evidence (especially given Trump's attempts to block the release of his tax returns). Plus the prosecutors have to decide on charges, the grand jury has to act, etc. And because prosecutors normally try to keep things like this secret, I doubt anything will come out 'in the next few weeks' regardless of what they have. A more likely time frame is in early to mid-2021...
Again, no...
Believe it or not, some prosecutors actually do believe in justice for justices sake. If Trump has been engaging in tax fraud, perjury, money laundering, etc., he deserves to be punished, not because "We want him out of office" but because what he was doing was illegal and its necessary to show that laws are to be enforced.
It will be super easy. Barely an inconvenience.
Given the republican mind-set and Trump's activities, there is no reason to hold off on pressing charges. The republicans will have shown no remorse (i.e. no need for empathy, and the country isn't going to "heal" any faster) and it won't make a difference when it comes to their future activities.
But that was the point you and others had made... Trump is "wearing his dirt proudly" (or something like that).
Its easy.. all you have to do is be born the son of a billionaire.
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
It's very simple.
They don't like Trump because he does cringe-worthy stuff. But he has an 'R' next to his name, so they have to defend him no matter what. And there's a lot about Trump that they do like (but can't admit to in public).
Or more succinctly, they are Deplorable.
Foster Zygote
Dental Floss Tycoon
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I agree that he feels no shame for wrongdoing. He's utterly amoral. I've watched people try to shame him by calling him out as a liar and a cheater. He smirks smugly when people bring up his misogyny and sexual assault. He can't be shamed by any of that because he actually like that about himself.
But he also has a very fragile ego. The alternative is that whatever's in those tax returns would expose him as a fake - would prove that he isn't as rich as he needs people to think he is. As a friend of mine said, you know he's got a little penis because otherwise he would have waved it at the cameras by now.
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
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- 96,955
Well I just heard something interesting in the Cohen interview with Lester Holt: His recommendation to Trump was to quit now and have Pence pardon him for everything.
Trump might just do this if he loses the election.
Won't help for state charges, fortunately.
Sorry if this has been posted earlier.
Trump might just do this if he loses the election.
Won't help for state charges, fortunately.
Sorry if this has been posted earlier.