Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Childlike Empress]

Let me do the math for you:
"The number of new cases is 179 per day"
"there are 550 COVID-19 infected people in the country at the moment."

179 is almost one third of the alleged number of cases. This (and the death toll of the last three days: 4, 5 & 5) makes it highly unlikely that the number of active cases is only 550.
Your Uncle Luka must have put the people who counted the votes at the latest election in charge of counting SARS-Cov-2 cases.

LOL, ok, so you failed to understand/read that there have been recoveries as well during the time period of the 179 new infections. Must be because you like to operate with accumulated numbers.

Now we read the omitted paragraph again and calculate how many infected people there have been 24 hours earlier. Let me help you again:

550 - 179 (new infections that haven't been there the day before) + 294 (newly recovered that still counted as infected the day before) + 5 (who died) = 670 infected people

You're welcome.

 

[Rolfe]

This reminds me of a question I've had but forgot to ask: A couple of months ago, you mentioned that a viral load may be too small to lead to an infection. It has to be big enough to overwhelm the immune system in order to be able to invade the cells and make them produce new copies of the virus.
Is it possible that several of those too-small-to-cause-an-actual-infection viral loads in the course of weeks or months could contribute to some kind of 'training' of the immune system?

No. If a virus doesn't get past the external non-specific defence mechanisms it doesn't interact with the immune system at all and the person is still naive.

It has been shown, I think with Lyme disease, that if you eliminate a bacterial infection that actually has got past the external defences with antibiotics, before the immune response has had the chance to develop fully, you again don't get a memory effect. They showed a small blip of antibody that went away again, and the patient was still unprotected from a repeat infection.

The immune system seems to have to engage with the pathogen at a significant level before the memory effect is triggered. This is why killed vaccines usually have to be given as two separate doses. Only at the second dose do you get the effective response, the large amount of antibody and the memory effect. Live vaccines and virulent pathogens multiply in the body and engage the immune system enough to do it, but the body needs a second go at a killed vaccine within a relatively short period, usually 2 to 4 weeks.

The other thing that doesn't happen is cumulative doses adding up to lead to an infective dose, at least over a period of more than a few hours. The body can go on eliminating too-low viral challenges forever, so long as it has got rid of the first one before the second one appears. The army has to attack the castle all at once, or at least in quick succession while the defenders haven't finished dealing with the avant-garde, in order to break through. If it sends the same number of soldiers one at a time, one every day or two, it won't prevail.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

LOL, ok, so you failed to understand/read that there have been recoveries as well during the time period of the 179 new infections. Must be because you like to operate with accumulated numbers.

Now we read the omitted paragraph again and calculate how many infected people there have been 24 hours earlier. Let me help you again:

550 - 179 (new infections that haven't been there the day before) + 294 (newly recovered that still counted as infected the day before) + 5 (who died) = 670 infected people

You're welcome.

Simple math with earnest rather than sensationalism.

Thank you.

 

[dann]

LOL, ok, so you failed to understand/read that there have been recoveries as well during the time period of the 179 new infections. Must be because you like to operate with accumulated numbers.

Now we read the omitted paragraph again and calculate how many infected people there have been 24 hours earlier. Let me help you again:

550 - 179 (new infections that haven't been there the day before) + 294 (newly recovered that still counted as infected the day before) + 5 (who died) = 670 infected people

You're welcome.

I didn't fail to understand anything. Your calculations would make sense if it only took people a couple of days to fight down the infection:
179 - 358 - 537 - 716 - 895 - 1,074 - 1253 - 1432 ...

What you also seem to miss is that the 294 aren't simply people who were infected, symptomatic or asymptomatic, and now got over it = "newly recovered":
"70,900 patients recovered and were discharged from hospitals (+294 patients in the 24 hours)"

Better luck with your Uncle Luka's numbers next time.

 

[dann]

Simple math with earnest rather than sensationalism.

Thank you.

Simple math that can't distinguish between apples and oranges.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

Simple math that can't distinguish between apples and oranges.

So far Childlike Empress' basket of apples has fewer oranges than yours.

 

[dann]

Nye restriktioner kan være på vej: Virolog frygter nyt udbrud (DR.dk, Sep. 5, 2020)
New restrictions may be on the way: Virologist fears new outbreak

1100 personer i karantene i Fredrikstad og Sarpsborg (NRK.no, Sep. 5, 2020)
1,100 people quarantined in Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg

Now when the USA has overtaken Sweden in Covid-19 deaths (see post 2014):
Amerikaner vill ta efter Sveriges coronahantering – se Lena Hallengren i CNN (Expressen.se, Sep. 3, 2020)
Americans want to follow Sweden’s corona strategy – see Lena Hallegren (minister of social affairs) - The video from CNN is in English

Article about corona survivors in Sweden:
Viruset stjäl år på bara några veckor (Expressen.se, Sep. 6, 2020)
The virus stole years in just a couple of weeks - For those of you who don’t read Swedish, there are several photos. Scroll down to the before-and-after photos of Kenneth and Nikolas.

 

[dann]

Now when the USA has overtaken Sweden in Covid-19 deaths (see post 2014):
Amerikaner vill ta efter Sveriges coronahantering – se Lena Hallengren i CNN (Expressen.se, Sep. 3, 2020)
Americans want to follow Sweden’s corona strategy – see Lena Hallegren (minister of social affairs) - The video from CNN is in English

Another recent CNN video from Sweden: A herd immunity strategy to fight the pandemic can be 'dangerous,' experts say. Here's why (CNN, Sep. 1, 2020)

 

[dann]

The immune system seems to have to engage with the pathogen at a significant level before the memory effect is triggered.

The immune system is stupid!
But I was already made aware of that when it wouldn't let me eat lobsters anymore ...

 

[Childlike Empress]

Give it up, dann. Your crude attempt to cast doubt on the numbers that show that, even after a month of large demonstrations on both sides, with rarely a mask seen and without "lockdown", the "pandemic" situation in Belarus is as calm as in the countries you like to cherry-pick to bash Sweden, failed.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Give it up, dann. Your crude attempt to cast doubt on the numbers that show that, even after a month of large demonstrations on both sides, with rarely a mask seen and without "lockdown", the "pandemic" situation in Belarus is as calm as in the countries you like to cherry-pick to bash Sweden, failed.

I give medical statistics from the old USSR the same credence I give its vote counts.

 

[dann]

Well, you know that nothing really gets through to convinced conspiracy nuts.
Not even another 'crude attempt' like this one:

Worldometers today, Sep. 6, 2020, Belarus:
New cases: 196 - Active cases: 284
Yesterday, Sep. 5, 2020:
New cases: 178 - Active cases: 115
The day before yesterday, Sep. 4, 2020:
New cases: 183 - Active cases 274

Belarus must be curing them even faster than they get infected! It can't be because the others have all died in the meantime and so they are no longer active cases:
Sep. 4: 5 deaths
Sep. 5: 4 deaths
Sep. 6: 6 deaths

How's that for apples and oranges?

 

[dann]

Sunday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 6, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 577 (5,835) 256* 16 *according to SVT.se. No new numbers till Monday.
Denmark: 108 (627) 147* 4 * 11 new hospitalizations; very disconcerting.
Finland: 61 (336) 30 1
Norway: 49 (264) 65 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 1 0
Iceland has 88 active cases, Faroe Islands 34, New Zealand 116.
The Faroe Islands have 36 in quarantine, 1 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.

Att USA har nu fler coviddöda per capita än Sverige påverkar inte Sverigebilden, enligt Svenska institutet. President Trumps twittrande verkar påverka mer än de faktiska siffrorna.
Trumps twittrande påverkar Sverigebilden (Sydsvenskan.se, Sep. 6, 2020)

That the USA now has more Covid-19 deaths per capita than Sweden doesn’t affect Sweden’s image, according to the Swedish Institute. President Trump’s tweets seem to affect it more than the actual numbers.
Trump’s tweets don’t affect Sweden’s image

- Sveriges succes kan skyldes mange ting. Det mest oplagte er, at de har haft rigtig mange smittede, så det kan være, at der er smule flokimmunitet, der hjælper dem nu, fortæller han til TV 2.
(…)
Sverige tester markant mindre
Men med til historien om de gode svenske tal hører dog også, at der bliver testet langt færre i Sverige end i Danmark.
- Det er oplagt en vældig stor faktor, og derfor kan man ikke konkludere ud fra de her tal, at der er færre smittede i Sverige end i Danmark lige nu, siger Christian Wejse.
I Sverige er der i alt foretaget cirka 1.124.000 test og af dem er godt 85.000 positive. Det betyder, at 7,5 procent af prøverne i Sverige kommer ud med et positivt resultat, og det er et tal, som er værd at hæfte sig ved, siger Christian Wejse:
- Hvis mere end fem procent af prøverne er positive, indikerer det for mig, at der bliver testet for lidt.
Til sammenligning er der foretaget omkring 2.650.000 test i Danmark og af dem er 0,66 procent positive.
Graferne peger på det, men er der virkelig færre smittede i Sverige end i Danmark lige nu? (TV2.dk, Sep. 6, 2020)

Sweden’s success may be due to many things. The most likely is that they have had very many cases, so they may have some herd immunity, which helps them now, he says to TV2.
(…)
Sweden tests considerably less
But in the story about Sweden’s good numbers, it is also important that far fewer are tested in Sweden than in Denmark.
- This is obviously a very big factor, and based on these numbers you you can’t conclude that there are fewer cases in Sweden than in Denmark right now, says Christian Wejse.
In Sweden, the total number of tests is approximately 1,124,000, and of those, a little more than 85,000 are positive. This means that 7.5 percent of the tests in Sweden are positive, and that is a number that is worth noticing, says Christian Wejse:
- If more than five percent of the tests are positive, it indicates to me that they don’t do enough testing.
In comparison, Denmark has tested about 2,650,000, and of those, 0.66 percent have been positive.
The graphs point in that direction, but are there really fewer cases in Sweden than in Denmark right now?

 

[dann]

Article about corona survivors in Sweden:
Viruset stjäl år på bara några veckor (Expressen.se, Sep. 6, 2020)
The virus stole years in just a couple of weeks - For those of you who don’t read Swedish, there are several photos. Scroll down to the before-and-after photos of Kenneth and Nikolas.

The article in Expressen that I linked to in post 2027 is now behind a paywall, unfortunately. The two Covid-19 survivors actually seemed to have aged 20 years compared to photos from 2018.

 

[jimbob]

The article in Expressen that I linked to in post 2027 is now behind a paywall, unfortunately. The two Covid-19 survivors actually seemed to have aged 20 years compared to photos from 2018.

I've said it seems like The Machine from The Princess Bride

 

[dann]

Have you seen other before-and-after photos of Covid-19 survivors? The people in the article meant them to be a warning to others who think that as long as you survive the ordeal, it isn't worse than the flu.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

A spike in novel coronavirus infections and deaths in Stockholm has raised questions about Sweden’s decision to fight the outbreak without resorting to the lockdowns that have left much of Europe at a standstill.

The problem here is that no one really knows very much. Some try to make conclusions based upon what we know about other viruses and some are trying the "hit or miss" tactic. Both methods change on a daily basis .... on what new information is found but there are no guarantees that "new information" will be trustworthy. It takes time before anything can be certain.

To criticize Sweden's official methods is fine but there are nations that allow Swedish residents to enter their countries without quarantine measures and they are (for the most part) considering Sweden's approach to the virus as being positive. As I said, no one really knows very much ...... yet.

 

[dann]

There's one thing most of us know that you seem to be unaware of.
But if you had started with the OP and read the rest of the thread, we might have been spared some of your crazy accusations.

 

[dann]

Worldometers today, Sep. 6, 2020, Belarus:
New cases: 196 - Active cases: 284
Yesterday, Sep. 5, 2020:
New cases: 178 - Active cases: 115
The day before yesterday, Sep. 4, 2020:
New cases: 183 - Active cases 274

Belarus must be curing them even faster than they get infected! It can't be because the others have all died in the meantime and so they are no longer active cases:
Sep. 4: 5 deaths
Sep. 5: 4 deaths
Sep. 6: 6 deaths

Belarus today, Sep. 7, 2020:
New cases: 172 - Active cases: 432 - Deaths: 5.

Belarus must have its own very peculiar way of calculating active cases, corresponding to Uncle Luca's idea that the virus is a "mass psychosis".

 

[Clutch Cargo]

Give it up, dann. Your crude attempt to cast doubt on the numbers that show that, even after a month of large demonstrations on both sides, with rarely a mask seen and without "lockdown", the "pandemic" situation in Belarus is as calm as in the countries you like to cherry-pick to bash Sweden, failed.

Yes, that really is the A to Z of it.

Everyone is guessing but there are no real conclusions. What they call "conclusions" are not more than hypothesis and in any other context they would be called conspiracy theories. Look at all that has been said and what has been written even in this thread. And what do we have to show for it? A cure? No. An established preventative method? No.

It's as you just said: " ... after a month of large demonstrations on both sides, with rarely a mask seen and without "lockdown", the "pandemic" situation in Belarus is as calm ... "

So much for "what we know". LOL.