The World After Coronavirus

[P.J. Denyer]

You can join a Zoom call from any smartphone made in the last decade.

This is most probably a little bit of my own baggage floating into the discussion but after 20 years of doing System Admin for a half dozen systems using a 2 generation old Panasonic Toughbook laptop balanced on my knee while I sat on an old toolbox in the corner of my ship's Comms room the whole as it pitched and rolled in the North Atlantic the whole "I simply must have an ergonomically perfect, dual monitor, distraction free work space to even begin to function" thing go old for me a long time ago.

Nice desk setups are 90% about image and ego.

I agree, this was my objection to the £10k working from home allowance available to MPs*. I've done support in various companies and outside of a few technical roles most workers machines were ridiculously overspecced for their requirements. Obviously there are exceptions, for example, I used to have to run multiple virtual machines for trouble shooting and error reproduction on an Enterprise level application but they were rare, anyone outside of support and development in our company ran nothing more demanding than MS Office.

*My own IT purchases recently have included a brand new Pantum laser printer network enabled and with duplex unit - £60 and a reconditioned Dell Latitude laptop - £150.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I agree, this was my objection to the £10k working from home allowance available to MPs*. I've done support in various companies and outside of a few technical roles most workers machines were ridiculously overspecced for their requirements.

99% of users in a general, normal office environment handling administrative tasks require.

1. A graphical user interface.
2. An office suite
3. A modern web browser capable of running all the various popular plugins
4. Adobe
5. Basic security software
6. Maybe a chat and video conferencing program


And you can accomplish that with a bare bones thin client and all free software.

 

[arthwollipot]

99% of users in a general, normal office environment handling administrative tasks require.

1. A graphical user interface.
2. An office suite
3. A modern web browser capable of running all the various popular plugins
4. Adobe
5. Basic security software
6. Maybe a chat and video conferencing program


And you can accomplish that with a bare bones thin client and all free software.

I'd say no. 6 is more than just a "maybe". I'd consider it essential.

 

[Brainster]

It's interesting that this thread has died out. Maybe we've reached the stage of accepting that there isn't going to be an "after" coronavirus?

New York City is experiencing plummeting rents and property values.

Now a third wave of people is leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30–50% on both rentals and sales no matter what real estate people tell you. And rentals are soaring in the second- and third-tier cities.

Things are so bad that Andrew Cuomo has been begging rich people to move back to the city (while DeBlasio is talking about a millionaire's tax).

Colleges are in severe trouble. A big part of what they have been selling is the university experience, but these days there isn't that much to distinguish it from YouTube. I have thought for years that sites like Coursera were the wave of the future. The future is here.

 

[cullennz]

99% of users in a general, normal office environment handling administrative tasks require.



1. A graphical user interface.

2. An office suite

3. A modern web browser capable of running all the various popular plugins

4. Adobe

5. Basic security software

6. Maybe a chat and video conferencing program





And you can accomplish that with a bare bones thin client and all free software.

Tbh you don't need any of that if you can just give them the facility to remote to their work machine.

Though I accept this is not as viable for some as it is for others.

 

[cullennz]

Actually that isn't quite true.

You need the security

And maybe the office software. But notepad works at a push and a memory stick to make it look fancy later, if some idiot turns off your work machine.

 

[Silly Green Monkey]

I'm hooked into a VPN, here. I'm definitely hoping that my 'after-coronavirus' will include still working from home, which means I need to ensure that quality doesn't drop at all. We're never going to "give up" on 'after-coronavirus', but we have to get THROUGH coronavirus first, have some patience.

 

[rjh01]

Another prediction. There will be a shortage of health care workers. Many will die or be disabled from the virus. Many others will leave the industry because of the stress. Ditto to people who look after retired people.

It will take several years to eliminate the virus, during which production will go down. After this there will be several years of boom time.

 

[Rolfe]

It shouldn't take several years, with a vaccine, in developed countries. It's almost possible to eliminate this thing even without a vaccine, with a vaccine it should be fairly straightforward. It will probably take longer in more disadvantaged countries but having said that many of these countries have been doing relatively well so far and I could be wrong about that.

There are bound to be one or two benighted places where it lingers on, whether this is Russia or Brazil or wherever, but for the majority of places I expect 2022 to be essentially post-covid.

 

[Belz...]

It's interesting that this thread has died out.

Cause of death was respiratory infection.

 

[Mader Levap]

As Rolfe said, there will be world after COVID-19, but I am not optimistic about 2022 date.

 

[rjh01]

It shouldn't take several years, with a vaccine, in developed countries. It's almost possible to eliminate this thing even without a vaccine, with a vaccine it should be fairly straightforward. It will probably take longer in more disadvantaged countries but having said that many of these countries have been doing relatively well so far and I could be wrong about that.

There are bound to be one or two benighted places where it lingers on, whether this is Russia or Brazil or wherever, but for the majority of places I expect 2022 to be essentially post-covid.

Not sure the US would be able to eliminate the virus very easily. They will not start until next year. Then it will require the country to shut down for 6 weeks or so. Then they have to deal with local outbreaks. Just look how hard it has been for Australia and New Zealand to get rid of it. And it was a lot easier for every reason to get rid of it there.

 

[Dr. Keith]

It shouldn't take several years, with a vaccine, in developed countries. It's almost possible to eliminate this thing even without a vaccine, with a vaccine it should be fairly straightforward. It will probably take longer in more disadvantaged countries but having said that many of these countries have been doing relatively well so far and I could be wrong about that.

There are bound to be one or two benighted places where it lingers on, whether this is Russia or Brazil or wherever, but for the majority of places I expect 2022 to be essentially post-covid.

What if one third of the population refuse to take a vaccine? Does that make you an even more disadvantaged country?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx

 

[Dr. Keith]

It's interesting that this thread has died out. Maybe we've reached the stage of accepting that there isn't going to be an "after" coronavirus?

New York City is experiencing plummeting rents and property values.



Things are so bad that Andrew Cuomo has been begging rich people to move back to the city (while DeBlasio is talking about a millionaire's tax).

Colleges are in severe trouble. A big part of what they have been selling is the university experience, but these days there isn't that much to distinguish it from YouTube. I have thought for years that sites like Coursera were the wave of the future. The future is here.

Yeah, my kid doesn't want to go to class, but they are a bit concerned about where all their money is going. Wouldn't the University of Phoenix (fully online school in the US of A) be cheaper?

 

[The Don]

I hope that there'll be some subtle changes to UK behaviour in the future:

• If you're sick, regardless of the cause, then please don't force yourself into work unless you absolutely have to - if you can work from home please do so
• I realise that there are a lot of people who cannot work from home and who cannot afford to take time off. If you're unwell with something contagious then please let your colleagues know, wear a mask and take enhanced hygiene precautions
• If you're feeling unwell then please don't go out to socialise. Going to the pub this week isn't a societal necessity, wait until you feel better

 

[Rolfe]

Not sure the US would be able to eliminate the virus very easily. They will not start until next year. Then it will require the country to shut down for 6 weeks or so. Then they have to deal with local outbreaks. Just look how hard it has been for Australia and New Zealand to get rid of it. And it was a lot easier for every reason to get rid of it there.

Why would you need to shut the country down with a vaccine available? Your biggest problem is the antivax refuseniks and there are ways to deal with that. It shouldn't just be a case of sticking needles into people and saying job done, it's adding the vaccine to the already-deployed methods that will lick it.

 

[Rolfe]

What if one third of the population refuse to take a vaccine? Does that make you an even more disadvantaged country?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx

One third will not refuse to take it. I consider anyone who says unreservedly right now that they would take a coronavirus vaccine to be dangerously complacent and a lot of people would answer in that spirit. Once the vaccine is a real thing that can be discussed sensibly that will change.

Most people will take it, and those that won't should find their lives somewhat constrained as a result. Compulsory 14-day quarantine on returning from abroad for a start.

 

[dann]

Why would you need to shut the country down with a vaccine available? Your biggest problem is the antivax refuseniks and there are ways to deal with that. It shouldn't just be a case of sticking needles into people and saying job done, it's adding the vaccine to the already-deployed methods that will lick it.

What do you mean? That we should continue to wear masks, practice social distancing etc. even after we have been vaccinated?!

 

[ponderingturtle]

What do you mean? That we should continue to wear masks, practice social distancing etc. even after we have been vaccinated?!

It is not going to go away any more than measles has gone away and that we have very effective vaccines while the immune reaction to this seems less certain.

I have no belief that we will manage to eradicate this like smallpox. We are almost there with polio and this seems more complicated to maintain herd immunity.

 

[Rolfe]

What do you mean? That we should continue to wear masks, practice social distancing etc. even after we have been vaccinated?!

No. I mean that the public health bodies need to keep chasing down new cases and isolating close contacts and making sure everyone in the person's wider circle is vaccinated.

A lot depends on availability of vaccine. If it's in relatively short supply you can prioritise ring vaccination around new cases, as well as front-linw health and care workers, and the elderly who can't easily isolate. That way the TTI operation becomes much more efficient and it should be possible to eliminate the virus much more easily.

If there's sufficient vaccine the goal probably moves to vaccinating as many people as possible within a defined time window which will depend on the duration of protection provided by the vaccine. This will work much better than a staged vaccination campaign where some people's immunity might be waning before others are vaccinated.

But given that some people will be unable to take the vaccine for medical reasons, some people will not mount a protective immune response to the vaccine and some people will flat refuse to take it, you also have to continue case detection and isolation at the same time to drive the virus out.

Another thing you do is make vaccination a compulsory requirement for incoming travellers. No vaccine, no entry. (Obviously there will have to be some exemption certificates but these should only be given where there is a real medical reason.) This applies to citizens returning from abroad too, although you could substitute supervised 14-day quarantine for a citizen who adamantly refuses a vaccination.

The thing is not just to vaccinate and sit back and say job done. What is needed is the realisation that the vaccine just made your job a hell of a lot easier and the end is probably in sight, but you still have to keep going for a bit.