Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

The fact that a bit of money spent in the early stages supporting people who can't work due to the lockdown, or who have to isolate for public health reasons, will save a fortune compared to the later effects of mass redundancies and poverty, and indeed the effect of infectious people going out to drive their taxi or deliver their parcels rather than isolating, is also lost on many governments.

Many of the cases in Aarhus are bus drivers. I've only been on a bus once this year - when I went to pick up my motorcycle. I noticed that a piece of rope prevented passengers from using the front end of the bus (two-three meters), so nobody would get close to the driver.
I don't know if they had taken similar precautions in Aarhus. Maybe not because the city (population about 336,000 compared to Aberdeen's 208,000) wasn't as hard hit by the first wave as the Copenhagen area.

 

[Rolfe]

They may as well close down the bars. Rules and regulations like these will be in vain: "Customers should not be standing together to watch football, dancing or queuing at the bar."
What's the purpose of going to a bar without those things?

People are going to have to get used to behaving differently until there's a vaccine. It's follow these guidelines or don't have a bar. You can't negotiate with a virus.

I quite like the electric fence thing, although as he says it's mainly a gimmick. I had to negotiate a three-stranded electric fence while out for a walk the other day. The tiny tingle that was all my (damp) rubber-soled shoes allowed to get through was easily negated just by pulling the cuffs of my sweatshirt over my hands.

 

[dann]

Friday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 7, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 570 (5,763) 41* 34 *356 according to SVT.se. The SVT.se number seems to be the correct one, so I'll just replace Worldometers' number with SVT's from now on. When you look at the numbers from one or two days ago at Worldometers, they numbers have always been replaced by SVT's (FHM's) numbers.
Denmark: 106 (617) 136 2
Finland: 60 (331) 22 0
Norway: 47 (256) 35 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 22 0
Iceland has 109 active cases, New Zealand 23.

Faroe Islands: 98 active cases, 763 awaiting results, 400+ in quarantine.
According to Kringvarp Föroya, if I understand the articles correctly, all day care centres for children in Thorshavn will be closed until Aug. 17, all religious services will be cancelled for the rest of August, and they are instructing people in how to wear masks.

I don’t see any signs of anti-Russian or anti-Lithuanian sentiments in the reports from the Faroe Islands, but it may have helped that the two ships chose to leave the Faroe Islands almost immediately after the infections onboard had been discovered, the Russians to trawl and the Lithuanians for the Canaries. And it would have been before the extent of the community spread had been discovered. I hope that the Lithuanians will all have recovered before they arrive in the Canaries, and that the Faroese will warn the Canarian authorities.

(I'm not sure that the Canarians, in spite of being an island community themselves, have grasped the concept of the Faroe Islands. When a small group of Faroese (and one New Zealander) rowed from Europe to Cuba two years ago and had to make a stop in the Canaries, the local papers called them Finns! Cross-Atlantic rowers reach destination (Kringvarp Føroya, May 14, 2018) I can't find the Canarian report, which was in Spanish.)

 

[dann]

I didn’t realize there success or failure was based on how well they did compared to other Nordic countries they have had 5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent of the population and have dropped their deaths and case down to almost nothing without a lockdown yes some countries have less deaths and some have more.

If you consider it a success to have people die in nursing homes receiving only palliative care because you don't have hospital capacity for them in ICUs, then I guess that having 10 times more per capita deaths than their nearest neighbor Norway is just dandy.

 

[Rolfe]

The countries that win covid-19 will be the ones who kept the highest proportion of their populations (a) alive and (b) uninfected by the time a vaccine allows proper eradication of the disease. Sweden isn't even in the running.

 

[Gavin]

If you consider it a success to have people die in nursing homes receiving only palliative care because you don't have hospital capacity for them in ICUs, then I guess that having 10 times more per capita deaths than their nearest neighbor Norway is just dandy.

This doesn’t address anything of the points I have made yes they more then some countries and less then others the fact that many of there fatalities where in nursing homes shows that having no lockdowns had nothing to do with it again it was 5,763 deaths out of 10 million

 

[Gavin]

The countries that win covid-19 will be the ones who kept the highest proportion of their populations (a) alive and (b) uninfected by the time a vaccine allows proper eradication of the disease. Sweden isn't even in the running.

They have dropped their deaths down almost nothing

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

[Rolfe]

The shape of Sweden's epidemic curve is interesting, but the idea that it represents some sort of laudable achievement is way off the mark. Few deaths now doesn't magically resurrect 5,763 people who are already dead.

 

[Gavin]

The shape of Sweden's epidemic curve is interesting, but the idea that it represents some sort of laudable achievement is way off the mark. Few deaths now doesn't magically resurrect 5,763 people who are already dead.

5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent of the population saying it’s failure because it had more deaths then another country wouldn’t be fair

 

[Rolfe]

I think that's pretty much the definition of failure. Having more deaths than need have happened. Sweden is not the only failure of course, but it's up there with the rest.

 

[dann]

This doesn’t address anything of the points I have made yes they more then some countries and less then others the fact that many of there fatalities where in nursing homes shows that having no lockdowns had nothing to do with it again it was 5,763 deaths out of 10 million

The intention of the Swedish strategy was twofold:
1) to let the virus run its course, but flatten the curve enough to keep hospital from being overwhelmed by the number of patients.
2) to keep the elderly safe while everybody else was getting infected and thus contributing to herd immunity.

Sweden failed miserably on both accounts:
1) Hospitals were overwhelmed to the point where nursing homes were told to let their infected residents receive palliative care instead of sending them to the hospitals for ICU treatment.
2) Old people were not protected at all since care workers at nursing homes got infected and then infected the residents because Sweden insisted that testing caseworkers wasn't necessary and neither was proper PPE. And both in care facilities and at hospitals, staff were told to stay at home if they had symptoms (and sometimes only if they had severe symptoms), even at the point when everybody knew that asymptomatic transmission was not only possible but also common.

If anything has become apparent in this pandemic, it is that the very best way to protect the elderly is to hammer down the virus. Do you think that New Zealand has had many flare ups in nursing homes?
Why do you even pretend that you know anything about the Swedish strategy?

 

[dann]

5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent of the population saying it’s failure because it had more deaths then another country wouldn’t be fair

What is your definiton of the word fair?

 

[dann]

Rolfe, at one point you wondered about Swedish clusters. Here's one:

Nästan alla fick corona efter fest i Dals-Ed (SVT.se, Aug. 7, 2020)
Almost everybody got corona after party in Dals-Ed

"Almost everybody" is 17 of 21.
We also learn why we don't usually hear about these clusters:

Smittskydd Västra Götaland kommenterar inte enskilda fall, men under torsdagen sa ställföreträdande smittskyddsläkare Peter Ulleryd att coronaviruset verkar spridas i kluster.
– Hamnar man i större sociala sammanhang under längre tid, umgås nära, så kommer vi att få spridning i kluster. Då gäller det att den som får symptom, eller besked om att den har covid-19, att den talar om det för sin omgivning så att man snabbt kan bromsa smittspridningen, sa Peter Ulleryd då.

The agency for protektion against infectious diseases in Wester Götaland don't comment on individual events, but this Thursday the deputy doctor of infectious diseases Peter Ulleryd said that the coronavirus spreads in clusters.
– If you find yourself in large social gatherings for a longer period of time, and you are close, then we will see cluster spread. Then those of you who get symptoms or are told that you have Covid-19 should tell your contacts so you can stop the spread as fast as possible, Peter Ulleryd said.

So apparently these clusters only come to the attention of the media if somebody tells them. In general, the health authorities won't! I guess that this one only came to the media's attention because one of the cases is a celebrity: "Monsterraceprofilen Jan Svensson i Ed".

 

[Clutch Cargo]

..... I'm happy that Denmark appears to postpone stage four of the reopening: nightlife and increase of crowd size (e.g. concerts, I guess): The limit of gatherings won't be raised to 200 as planned (DR.dk, Aug. 6, 2020)...

Well, Denmark's cafés, pubs, and restaurants are open and no one is wearing a mask. "Because of the Coronavirus", all DSB travel in Denmark requires a reserved seat - at no charge. However, I was twice (recently) seated at the four facing seats with all four seats occupied with strangers. As far as the border is concerned all Swedes can take the Öresund train to Kastrup (if you've got an air ticket) but anyone residing in Skåne can continue straight into Kopenhagen city with no problem.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

Rolfe, at one point you wondered about Swedish clusters. Here's one:

Nästan alla fick corona efter fest i Dals-Ed (SVT.se, Aug. 7, 2020)
Almost everybody got corona after party in Dals-Ed

"Almost everybody" is 17 of 21.
We also learn why we don't usually hear about these clusters:

The agency for protektion against infectious diseases in Wester Götaland don't comment on individual events, but this Thursday the deputy doctor of infectious diseases Peter Ulleryd said that the coronavirus spreads in clusters.
– If you find yourself in large social gatherings for a longer period of time, and you are close, then we will see cluster spread. Then those of you who get symptoms or are told that you have Covid-19 should tell your contacts so you can stop the spread as fast as possible, Peter Ulleryd said.

So apparently these clusters only come to the attention of the media if somebody tells them. In general, the health authorities won't! I guess that this one only came to the media's attention because one of the cases is a celebrity: "Monsterraceprofilen Jan Svensson i Ed".

I'm not sure that I know what a "cluster" is but the schools in Skåne are open and so is everything else ..... except the hospitals. We are "recommended" to keep our distance in queues, buses, and restaurants but the question of wearing a mask hardly exists. Despite all of that both Denmark and Germany are now open to us.

 

[Gavin]

The intention of the Swedish strategy was twofold:
1) to let the virus run its course, but flatten the curve enough to keep hospital from being overwhelmed by the number of patients.
2) to keep the elderly safe while everybody else was getting infected and thus contributing to herd immunity.

Sweden failed miserably on both accounts:
1) Hospitals were overwhelmed to the point where nursing homes were told to let their infected residents receive palliative care instead of sending them to the hospitals for ICU treatment.
2) Old people were not protected at all since care workers at nursing homes got infected and then infected the residents because Sweden insisted that testing caseworkers wasn't necessary and neither was proper PPE. And both in care facilities and at hospitals, staff were told to stay at home if they had symptoms (and sometimes only if they had severe symptoms), even at the point when everybody knew that asymptomatic transmission was not only possible but also common.

If anything has become apparent in this pandemic, it is that the very best way to protect the elderly is to hammer down the virus. Do you think that New Zealand has had many flare ups in nursing homes?
Why do you even pretend that you know anything about the Swedish strategy?

They flatten the curve on both cases and deaths without ever having a lockdown continuously repeating the death count isn’t going to change it you have no argument.

 

[dann]

They flatten the curve on both cases and deaths without ever having a lockdown continuously repeating the death count isn’t going to change it you have no argument.

Yes, all curves flatten sooner or later, in Sweden's case, it was later, but you don't seem to register that their intention with flattening the curve, i.e. letting people get sick and die, but without overwhelming the health-care system, wasn't fulfilled. Neither was preventing the elderly from getting infected and die, obviously.

Those were the declared intentions of the Swedish strategy, intentions that were miserable enough in themselves, and it didn't even live up to those.
At some point, even letting the virus run wild and encouraging super-spreader events will let the curve 'flatten'. The question is the level at which it flattens and how long it will take for it to come down.
Your attempts to confuse the issue may convince yourself and other Trump fans but hardly anybody else.

 

[Gavin]

Yes, all curves flatten sooner or later, in Sweden's case, it was later, but you don't seem to register that their intention with flattening the curve, i.e. letting people get sick and die, but without overwhelming the health-care system, wasn't fulfilled. Neither was preventing the elderly from getting infected and die, obviously.

Those were the declared intentions of the Swedish strategy, intentions that were miserable enough in themselves, and it didn't even live up to those.
At some point, even letting the virus run wild and encouraging super-spreader events will let the curve 'flatten'. The question is the level at which it flattens and how long it will take for it to come down.
Your attempts to confuse the issue may convince yourself and other Trump fans but hardly anybody else.

As I have said 5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent of the population they where not being overwhelmed what other country has flattened the curve with out ever having a lockdown?

 

[Gavin]

From a Swedish ER doctor.

Coven hit Stockholm like a storm in mid-March. One day I was seeing people with appendicitis and kidney stones, the usual things you see in the emergency room. The next day all those patients were gone and the only thing coming in to the hospital was covid. Practically everyone who was tested had covid, regardless of what the presenting symtom was. People came in with a nose bleed and they had covid. They came in with stomach pain and they had covid.
Then, after a few months, all the covid patients disappeared. It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative. At the peak three months back, a hundred people were dying a day of covid in Sweden, a country with a population of ten million. We are now down to around five people dying per day in the whole country, and that number continues to drop. Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that means virtually no-one is getting infected any more. If we assume around 0.5 percent of those infected die (which I think is very generous, more on that later), then that means that three weeks back 1,000 people were getting infected per day in the whole country, which works out to a daily risk per person of getting infected of 1 in 10,000, which is miniscule. And remember, the risk of dying is at the very most 1 in 200 if you actually do get infected. And that was three weeks ago. Basically, covid is in all practical senses over and done with in Sweden. After four months.
In total covid has killed under 6,000 people in a country of ten million. A country with an annual death rate of around 100,000 people. Considering that 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

 

[dann]

I'm not sure that I know what a "cluster" is but the schools in Skåne are open and so is everything else ..... except the hospitals. We are "recommended" to keep our distance in queues, buses, and restaurants but the question of wearing a mask hardly exists. Despite all of that both Denmark and Germany are now open to us.

Yes, to all of that, but what is your point?
Scania is open, and Scania (1,4 million) had 11 Covid-19 deaths in the last two weeks, which is more than (almost twice as much as) the other four Nordic countries (16 million) combined.
That Denmark and Germany decided to open up for Swedish tourists was not a good idea, in my opinion, but they did.

And speaking of schools: Not even the teachers unions of Sweden seem to take the concerns of their own members seriously. I don't consider that to be a recommendation of the Swedish strategy:

Sara, jag är själv gymnasielärare och jag känner ingen lärare som vill stå och trängas i ett klassrum och träffa hundratals elever dagligen just nu. Håller med om att ni borde ställa fler frågor om just riskerna som vi lärare utsätts för.
Livrädd
Hej, jag förstår, men det är Lärarförbundets formella hållning och skolledarnas också. Det finns ingen önskan från något håll om att fortsätta med distansundervisningen, utan det som har förts fram är att man vill säkra arbetsmiljön i skolorna. Mvh Sara
Sara Milstead
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (Aftonbladet.se, Aug. 7, 2020 - 9:38)