The argument presented by the post I was referring to was "look at this obvious guy claiming to be a woman LOL, I can totally see that he's not!" Which is very much summed up entirely as "if a person looks like a man, they should be treated as a man regardless of anything else outside their appearance".
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This is not the case.
It is not "I can see that he totally is not." It is that I can read, in his/her/splunge own words that he is not. That's what the caption is all about. (S)he says, quite explicitly, that he/she/splunge is a transwoman with no intention to transition his appearance. He knows he looks like a man. He admits, by acknowledging that he's a transwoman, that he is male bodied and intends to stay that way, and her picture confirms that his appearance is totally male. He looks male, and his words confirm that he is male.
And yes, you know full well that if I saw an "ugly" woman, which you clarified that you meant a woman who has a mannish appearance, that I would declare that she is a woman. Is she of the sex that can make babies? She's a woman.
I'll repeat something I said about a year ago in this thread.
If person A can have sexual intercourse with person B, such that person B becomes pregnant, that is a sufficient condition to declare that person A is a man, and person B is a woman.
(This is the cue for someone to jump in and demonstrate that they don't understand what "sufficient condition" means.)
For people who cannot, at this point in time impregnate or become pregnant, we can expand from there until almost every single person on the planet fits neatly into one of those two categories. We might have to add temporal references, and note that juveniles go by different terms, and that illness or injury affects fertility and all the other things people try to use as gotchas, but the word "ugly" need not be used in that categorization.
And.....you know that's what I think. You don't have to ask, and you don't have to pretend that you don't know.
That particular person, who would prefer to be called a woman, is just a particularly powerful demonstration of why the trans activist position is so meaningless. Most trans people actively go out of their way so that people who encounter them will believe that the trans person is someone of the preferred gender, and so one can look and say that they are associating something with "woman" and trying to emulate it. This person is not doing that. Ze is deliberately maintaining a masculine appearance, but assuring us that ze is a woman. Well what the heck does that even mean? If that person is a woman, then what does woman mean?