Cont: The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread pt. 2

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Facebook has removed the video Trump posted to Facebook claiming children are 'almost immune from COVID-19.'

This video includes false claims that a group of people is immune from COVID-19 which is a violation of our policies around harmful COVID misinformation.
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lomiller said:
Sure but what does that buy you? Without timely contact tracing and isolation testing is only useful for documenting how bad things are getting.

The full process that works like this:
1) Lockdown until new cases per day reach a manageable number for contact tracing & isolation
2) Test extensively
3) Quarantine everyone who has been in contact with someone who tests +ve.

The States that are having problems are in trouble because they tried to bypass #1 and therefor are doomed to fail at #3 regardless of how much testing they do.
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This morning's research.

As many as 575,000 people died of H1N1, according to the CDC. We closed down nothing, wore no masks, took no action at all as a society. And 80% of H1N1 deaths were people under 65. The World Health Organization reports approximately 650,000 people died of the flu EVERY YEAR. Again, we don't shutter businesses, force mask wearing or social isolation, or bankrupt small businesses, or tank our economy. H1N1 was also called a pandemic. Society's response to covid is bizarre by comparison.
 
Gavin said:
This morning's research.

As many as 575,000 people died of H1N1, according to the CDC. We closed down nothing, wore no masks, took no action at all as a society. And 80% of H1N1 deaths were people under 65. The World Health Organization reports approximately 650,000 people died of the flu EVERY YEAR. Again, we don't shutter businesses, force mask wearing or social isolation, or bankrupt small businesses, or tank our economy. H1N1 was also called a pandemic. Society's response to covid is bizarre by comparison.
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Global deaths of H1N1 was more like 284,000 in 19 months. Deaths from Covid-19 are more than 700,000 in less than 8 months even WITH the massive mitigation efforts.

Your 'research' is lacking and your conclusion unsupported.
 
Gavin said:
This morning's research.

As many as 575,000 people died of H1N1, according to the CDC. We closed down nothing, wore no masks, took no action at all as a society. And 80% of H1N1 deaths were people under 65. The World Health Organization reports approximately 650,000 people died of the flu EVERY YEAR. Again, we don't shutter businesses, force mask wearing or social isolation, or bankrupt small businesses, or tank our economy. H1N1 was also called a pandemic. Society's response to covid is bizarre by comparison.
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Please provide context and links for you numbers.

ETA: I see you can't post links yet.
 
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Gavin said:
This morning's research.

As many as 575,000 people died of H1N1, according to the CDC. We closed down nothing, wore no masks, took no action at all as a society. And 80% of H1N1 deaths were people under 65. The World Health Organization reports approximately 650,000 people died of the flu EVERY YEAR. Again, we don't shutter businesses, force mask wearing or social isolation, or bankrupt small businesses, or tank our economy. H1N1 was also called a pandemic. Society's response to covid is bizarre by comparison.
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<Citation Needed>, of course.
Here's one, just Wikipedia. Of course you can do better.
Quote from that article, on which you appear to have based your post:
The number of lab-confirmed deaths reported to the WHO is 18,449,[8] though this 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic is estimated to have actually caused about 284,000 (range from 150,000 to 575,000) deaths.[14] A follow-up study done in September 2010 showed that the risk of serious illness resulting from the 2009 H1N1 flu was no higher than that of the yearly seasonal flu.[15] For comparison, the WHO estimates that 250,000 to 500,000 people die of seasonal flu annually.[10]
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So, (rule of), UP TO 575,000 deaths WORLDWIDE. But most likely about 284,000. Current worldwide deaths from Covid-19: 710,033 according to Worldometer. And that H1N1 number occurred over 19 months. We're only nine or ten months into Covid-19.
Total US Deaths from H1N1: 12,469. Current US deaths from Covid-19: Over 160,000.
But yeah, go ahead and believe what your orange fuhrer tells you.
 
Not to mention the H1N1 did not seem to cripple the survivors with a wide variety of permanent injuries with damage to the lungs, heart and other effects.

More importantly, H1N1 didn't have a 2 week asymptomatic rate where carriers would spread the disease like wildfire while feeling just fine themselves. That's why you are wearing a mask!
 
kookbreaker said:
Not to mention the H1N1 did not seem to cripple the survivors with a wide variety of permanent injuries with damage to the lungs, heart and other effects.

More importantly, H1N1 didn't have a 2 week asymptomatic rate where carriers would spread the disease like wildfire while feeling just fine themselves. That's why you are wearing a mask!
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I am betting not.
 
kookbreaker said:
Not to mention the H1N1 did not seem to cripple the survivors with a wide variety of permanent injuries with damage to the lungs, heart and other effects.
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My youngest cousin suffered an even broader variety of permanent injuries. Because she's dead from it.

kookbreaker said:
More importantly, H1N1 didn't have a 2 week asymptomatic rate where carriers would spread the disease like wildfire while feeling just fine themselves. That's why you are wearing a mask!
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I seriously doubt that Gavin is wearing a mask.
 
Trebuchet said:
My youngest cousin suffered an even broader variety of permanent injuries. Because she's dead from it.
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Yes, I am sorry for that. But my point is you cannot just look at deaths. When something like 5-10 people have permanent health damage for every one who dies that gets lost in the chaff. In a nation where the current President promises the sea with regards to healthcare but delivers only a rancid damp dishrag this is going to hurt people in the long run.
 
Gavin said:
This morning's research.

As many as 575,000 people died of H1N1, according to the CDC. We closed down nothing, wore no masks, took no action at all as a society. And 80% of H1N1 deaths were people under 65. The World Health Organization reports approximately 650,000 people died of the flu EVERY YEAR. Again, we don't shutter businesses, force mask wearing or social isolation, or bankrupt small businesses, or tank our economy. H1N1 was also called a pandemic. Society's response to covid is bizarre by comparison.
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Ok. Now imagine how many people would have died from Covid-19 had we NOT gone for masks, isolation and closures. And understand the exponential progress of these.
 
Mader Levap said:
I still await source for your silly "1 in milion chance" nonsense. And no, small count of posts is no excuse, you can give webaddress (for example using spaces around dots) without triggering forum software.

And you are still ignoring consequences of kids running around unchecked.
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How difficult is to do search on how many children have died of covid it's not going to take long to get 15 posts there have been only 24 children die who have have covid
 
Gavin said:
How difficult is to do search on how many children have died of covid it's not going to take long to get 15 posts there have been only 24 children die who have have covid
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We have more than a few extensive posts about the dangers of reopening the schools. Why don't you go look for them before trying to start the discussion all over again?
 
Trebuchet said:
<Citation Needed>, of course.. Of course you can do better.
Quote from that article, on which you appear to have based your post:


So, (rule of), UP TO 575,000 deaths WORLDWIDE. But most likely about 284,000. Current worldwide deaths ] And that H1N1 number occurred over 19 months. We're only nine or ten months into Covid-19.
Total US Deaths from H1N1: 12,469. Current US deaths from Covid-19: Over 160,000.
But yeah, go ahead and believe what your orange fuhrer tells you.
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Covid is not the leading cause of death in the us
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383

How long do we shut down it's not going away there is there are thousands of questions on the topic

80 thousand people died of the flue in 2018 and we have
vaccine for it
 
Your numbers appear to be missing units, those are very important if discussion is able to continue
 
Gavin said:
This morning's research.

As many as 575,000 people died of H1N1, according to the CDC. We closed down nothing, wore no masks, took no action at all as a society. And 80% of H1N1 deaths were people under 65. The World Health Organization reports approximately 650,000 people died of the flu EVERY YEAR. Again, we don't shutter businesses, force mask wearing or social isolation, or bankrupt small businesses, or tank our economy. H1N1 was also called a pandemic. Society's response to covid is bizarre by comparison.
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FIRST
The pre-symptomatic contagious period for H1N1 is about one day before symptoms develop. This means that a person can only potentially spread the disease for one day before they become ill.

The pre-symptomatic contagious period for Covid 19 can be up to fourteen days before symptoms develop. The means the person can can be up to 14 times more likely to spread the disease to someone else.

SECOND
The R0 number (the ability to spread to others). R0, is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is.

If R0 < 1 means each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.

If R0 = 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.

If R0 > 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

The higher the R0 number, the more contagious it is, and the more likely the pandemic will spread quickly and get out of control.

H1N1 has a median R0 of 1.5 which mean an infected person within the tranmission period can infect between 1 and 2 people.

Covid19 has a media R0 of 5.7 which means an infected person within the tranmission period can infect between 5 and 6 people.

SUMMARY
Covid19 is 4X more contagious than H1N1, and the pre-symptomatic contagious period is 14X longer. Every person exposed to Covid19 is a "Typhoid Mary" for two weeks!

The problem with being ignorant of facts is that you don't have the understanding to know that you end up conflating different things believing them to be the same. This is a lesson they used to leach on Sesame Street... remember? "One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just isn't the same!!
 
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Gavin said:
Covid is not the leading cause of death in the us
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383

How long do we shut down it's not going away there is there are thousands of questions on the topic

80 thousand people died of the flue in 2018 and we have
vaccine for it
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In the United States? No they didn't. The CDC says 61,000. 50,000 of those deaths were people over 65. 643 were under 18. Use real numbers. Don't make up numbers that suit your desires.

44 million people had symptomatic cases of flu that year.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

If I stand next to someone who has a stroke, I don't get a stroke. (My mom had a stroke in the back seat of my car. Other than psychological trauma, I was unaffected.)

I'm not convinced that keeping schools closed is the best option, but if you want to argue that it isn't the best option, use real facts. Don't bend them to suit your wishes. The governors in Florida and Texas seemed to think it wasn't worth the lockdowns, while the governor of Michigan seems to think the cost justified continued restrictions on behavior. Florida and Texas have now far surpassed Michigan in confirmed cases, and also in deaths. They used to be much lower than us. (I live in Michigan.)

Was it worth it? There's no right answer, but don't pretend that the cost didn't happen. Texas and Florida said no to lockdowns. People died. That's reality. I won't insist that they made the wrong decision, but I will insist that their policies produced their results. Someone else can make the value judgement about whether it was right or wrong, but what happened cannot be denied by reasonable people.

ETA: According to CDC, between February 1 and August 1, 2020, 45 people under the age of 15 have died of Covid 19 in the United States.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
 
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