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Cont: The Trump Presidency: Part 23

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Ladewig said:
Channel?

Trump would want a whole propaganda cable company.
Perhaps

one channel for his mad golf skills
one for his fashion
one for his domestic hotels
one for his international hotels.
one for selling crap: steaks, wine, bottled water. (also, am I the only one here who thinks he is going to try to launch Presidential Brand bottled water.
one showing how much better he is than anybody in history
one to praise his domestic policies
one to praise his international policies
one to ficus how unfair everyone is to him
etc, etc, etc
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I expect that the last one would be well covered in all the others.

Not that that would stop him from dedicating a channel or three to it anyway.
 
thaiboxerken said:
They seem to make a big difference in sound.

Would be hard to tell if these suppressed sounds came from guns:



https://youtu.be/ak-QH9x8Hcc
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I think it is somewhat ironic that the guy demonstrating the (NOT-A-SILENCER!!!!) "suppressors" is a representative of (and wearing the tee shirt for) a manufacturer of (NOT-A-SILENCER!!!!) "suppressors" that calls itself "SilencerCo".
 
SezMe said:
His numbers are down. Based on this chart, his numbers have been trending down since April 1, the longest decline since his initial drop in poling at the start of his term. That's 3.5 months of steady loss; there's 3.5 months to the election. I don't see how he can recover.
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Still at 40%, down from a high of 45%. It's an insignificant fall IMO. His approval numbers should be in the 20s. He's right where he's been for most of his term.

One piece of good news and he could easily be back up to 45%
 
Bolton said that everything Trump says or does is directly related to his re-election. That is the overriding concern for him. We can see this in every presser/interview Trump gives. He doesn't address the concerns of Covid 19, BLM etc except in how he can use them as a campaign ad for himself. He did it again today.
 
The Don said:
Still at 40%, down from a high of 45%. It's an insignificant fall IMO.
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Well, politically the USA is a failing state: a huge part of the electorate is not persuasible by reason and empirism and they are egged on by ruthless manipulators and populists financed by deranged billionaires and giant corporations for tax cuts. And all this supported by a shamelessly propagandistic major tv-network.

But still, in these conditions, this is a hugely important drop, basically the difference between winning and losing in November. If Trump goes to the election with say 45-46% approval it might well be enough when helped by the electoral college and voter suppression to squeak through. With 40% it would be practically impossible.
 
llwyd said:
Well, politically the USA is a failing state: a huge part of the electorate is not persuasible by reason and empirism and they are egged on by ruthless manipulators and populists financed by deranged billionaires and giant corporations for tax cuts. And all this supported by a shamelessly propagandistic major tv-network.

But still, in these conditions, this is a hugely important drop, basically the difference between winning and losing in November. If Trump goes to the election with say 45-46% approval it might well be enough when helped by the electoral college and voter suppression to squeak through. With 40% it would be practically impossible.
Click to expand...

With 40% of the vote - you're right unless there's a third party candidate pulling a significant number of votes.

With 40% support it's absolutely possible so long as a much larger proportion of the 40% turn out to vote than the 60% - which in any case is not a homogeneous group, a significant minority of that 60% would never vote Democratic in any circumstances.
 
The Don said:
With 40% support it's absolutely possible so long as a much larger proportion of the 40% turn out to vote than the 60% - which in any case is not a homogeneous group, a significant minority of that 60% would never vote Democratic in any circumstances.
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Can you find an example of a president entering the polling day with 40% approval rating and winning the election? I'm sure it's technically possible but nevertheless an highly unlikely event.
 
llwyd said:
Can you find an example of a president entering the polling day with 40% approval rating and winning the election? I'm sure it's technically possible but nevertheless an highly unlikely event.
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I cannot, but then again President Trump is unprecedented. No President has had had such a poor average approval rating, but then again his approval rating has been the most consistent in history.

In other words, maybe only 40% of people approve of him, but they *really* approve of him and will absolutely vote for him. Add in a sprinkling of people who will hold their noses and vote GOP and maybe he can get 45% of the popular vote which, given effective enough voter suppression in key states, may well be enough to get him across the line.

I do however expect a series of announcements in October which will be aimed at boosting his popularity. I expect some combination of:

  • Cure and/or vaccine against Covid-19 (which may or may not be actually true)
  • Great economic numbers - almost necessarily there will be good economic growth given how badly and quickly the economy has contracted
  • International "wins" against China or North Korea or someone

Even if the bump only lasts a few weeks, that may be enough to get across the line.
 
SezMe said:
His numbers are down. Based on this chart, his numbers have been trending down since April 1, the longest decline since his initial drop in poling at the start of his term. That's 3.5 months of steady loss; there's 3.5 months to the election. I don't see how he can recover.
Click to expand...

In presidential politics, 3.5 months is a huge span of time. All sorts of things can happen.
 
llwyd said:
Can you find an example of a president entering the polling day with 40% approval rating and winning the election? I'm sure it's technically possible but nevertheless an highly unlikely event.
Click to expand...
Hassan Minhaj (sp?) did a "Patriot Act" YT episode a week or two ago on how "We're doing elections wrong".
I'd like poliSci folk here to critique it (make a thread, I'll read it) because it lays out ways the two party system has steadily made it harder for dems to maintain parity in US politics.
You might have a look, and see if it doesn't worry the hell out of you too. [emoji21]
 
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The Don said:
Still at 40%, down from a high of 45%. It's an insignificant fall IMO. His approval numbers should be in the 20s. He's right where he's been for most of his term.

One piece of good news and he could easily be back up to 45%
Click to expand...

It's also some 3-3.5% above the lowest level he's had, which I find frankly baffling.
 
The Don said:
I do however expect a series of announcements in October which will be aimed at boosting his popularity. I expect some combination of:

  • Cure and/or vaccine against Covid-19 (which may or may not be actually true)
  • Great economic numbers - almost necessarily there will be good economic growth given how badly and quickly the economy has contracted
  • International "wins" against China or North Korea or someone

Even if the bump only lasts a few weeks, that may be enough to get across the line.
Click to expand...

And here is an excellent candidate for the highlighted...

A US firm has said it will soon start final-stage human trials for a possible vaccine.

The vaccine developed by the US pharmaceutical company Moderna has proved safe and provoked immune responses in all 45 volunteers in phase-one trials.

The last stage of the trials is expected to begin later this month and will involve recruiting 30,000 participants in the US.

Half will receive the vaccine, while the other half are given a placebo.

Researchers will then track them over two years to determine whether they are protected against infection by the virus. Or, if they do get infected, whether the vaccine prevents symptoms from developing.

The study should run until October 2022 but preliminary results should be available long before.
Click to expand...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...0eafd2bac8f90655aa9f29&pinned_post_type=share

The Trump Administration can make a grand announcement in October that it has found a vaccine for Covid-19 neglecting to mention that the earliest it can actually be deployed is some time in 2022. The US electorate will be relieved that things will go back to normal in a few weeks and reward President Trump for winning "the war" against Covid-19 by reelecting him. :(

In the euphoria, his utter mismanagement of the US government's response will be forgotten.
 
Ladewig said:
Channel?

Trump would want a whole propaganda cable company.
Perhaps

one channel for his mad golf skills
one for his fashion
one for his domestic hotels
one for his international hotels.
one for selling crap: steaks, wine, bottled water. (also, am I the only one here who thinks he is going to try to launch Presidential Brand bottled water.
one showing how much better he is than anybody in history
one to praise his domestic policies
one to praise his international policies
one to ficus how unfair everyone is to him

etc, etc, etc
Click to expand...

You missed out the channel about what a great couple him and Ivanka would make if everyone wasn't so hung up about her just happening to be his daughter.
 
Trump tweeted

Wow, just called! @TTuberville - Tommy Tuberville WON big against Jeff Sessions.
Will be a GREAT Senator for the incredible people of Alabama. @DougJones is a terrible Senator who is just a Super Liberal puppet for Schumer & Pelosi. Represents Alabama poorly. On to November 3rd.
 
Trump Tweeted

A GREAT WIN!
Quote Tweet

John R Parkinson
@jparkABC
Associated Press projects @TTuberville wins Alabama Senate primary GOP runoff - a huge victory for @realDonaldTrump, who endorsed Tuberville + pushed hard to ensure fmr Attorney General @jeffsessions didn't return to Senate. Tuberville and @DougJones face off this fall #ALSEN
 
Trump Retweeted

Sebastian Gorka DrG
@SebGorka
For all you MAGA Marauders out there who are asking, it’s OK, l’ll still be hosting my National show AMERICA First, in addition to serving on this National Security Board!

We have 111 days to get my old/new boss President @realDonaldTrump re-elected!
 
Trump Retweeted

Dan Bongino
@dbongino
THE KIDS BELONG BACK IN SCHOOL.
Stop making them suffer for your own political gain.

Vernon Jones
@RepVernonJones
Trump is only separator between Democrats, anarchy: Rep. Vernon Jones
 
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