Tero
Philosopher
There seems to be a flaw there - Biden had a poor showing in the first primaries because that was his strategy. My understanding was that he purposefully sacrificed the early primaries so he could focus on making a strong showing in the later ones. Spend less money when the field was bigger, make a strong showing later on, and get the people who dropped out in the early stages to back him, and emerge as the consensus candidate.
I think the model is supposed to reflect enthusiasm for the candidate. There is some truth in this, in that polling reflects people's views on candidates and issues, but does not predict turnout. The Trumpsters will deninitely turn up to vote. (they will lose interest by 2022). Democrats are less predictable, but "black lives" will help.