PartSkeptic’s Thread for Predictions and Other Matters of Interest

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)
Yup. Everyone else is wrong and you are right. If anyone disagrees with you, it's because they are corrupt and evil and mean and smelly.
Or.......

How do you know this? Very personal observation, I must say.

 

[Pixel42]

How is this for some prophetic writing on my part!

Slightly more impressive than a prediction that the sun will rise tomorrow. Very slightly.

Are you going to respond to my request to turn your "pandemic will get much worse" prediction into something that is actually testable?

 

[JayUtah]

If you cannot see that then it is because you do not want to see it.

I don't agree with your assessment of the outcome because you've provided no evidence to support it. In fact, you have contradicted the documentary record of your court case on a number of occasions. You cherry-pick the facts and then make up new things, trying to spin a more favorable narrative. You're trying desperately to read nefarious motives and practices into everything, but you don't seem to realize that it's entirely supposition. The problem you're having speaking to people is not that they're unwilling to entertain your hypotheses. It's that they respect the difference between evidence and speculation. You can't seem to.

But eventually the truth WILL come out.

But you are unable to supply anything that indicates the truth in your case is anything other than what the court decided. You have an obviously fervent belief. But unfortunately it doesn't stand up to a very high degree of scrutiny because it's so very one-sided and ill-supported where the facts are concerned. And you don't have the desire or skills to fix its problems. It remains unconvincing.

Further, you are patently uninterested in doing the things that will help the truth as you you see it to be convincing to others. You generally just insult them when they don't immediately believe you. People are telling you what kind of evidence will convince others that the cause of your suffering is what you claim. You simply don't want that evidence to exist. You want to cling to the belief -- and only the belief -- that you are right, for whatever value that belief (and others' opposition to it) gives you.

Persisting in the course you've taken so far will not result in a different reaction. Your claims -- a smattering of ill-reported fact festooned with large amounts of narcissistic and paranoid invention -- are not going to convince anyone of anything. And it's not anyone else's fault but yours. If you want to convince people, you need to pay attention to what they're asking for. You can't just write them off as supposedly ignorant, or whine that engaging with criticism is to painful or negativistic.

 

[turingtest]

How is this for some prophetic writing on my part! We need a change in direction from the latest attempts to rewrite the history of my Trump prediction.

This was the foreword to a book I wrote in 1992. I never put it out for publication. My late wife (a Californian who did some fund raising for the ANC in 1992) read it in 2009 and suggested I clean it up and publish it.

Peace, Equality, Justice. These are noble ideals to strive for. But special interest groups have found ways to use them to their advantage. Agitate the poor in the ghettos in the name of Justice. Call riots and destruction the fight for Equality. And promise Peace if the ruling powers capitulate. It sounds like South Africa, but it is happening in the USA as well.

It is apparent to most there are divisions between Black and White in the USA. Not so apparent there is the "tribal" struggles between various groups - ethnic, religious and cultural.

It was after leaving Apartheid in South Africa and immigrating to America, then moving from the rural area into the heart of New York City, that the ethnic separation and cultural disparities became more evident to the Author. The high crime rate, drugs, and moral decay are increasing as the standards of the establishment are worn down by the special-interest groups

It used to be that Governments manipulated the media to influence the public, and to sway public opinion and attitudes. Now, the roles are reversed, and the media has become the force influencing both the public and the Government. Governments used to be somewhat conservative and influenced by business, whereas the media is staffed by, and financed by, people with a liberal outlook who are sympathetic to many of the special interest groups.

The ideals espoused by many of these groups appear reasonable enough, especially with their emphasis on Justice and Equality. But their ultimate aim is to further their agenda and to get special treatment in society. The result is division and confusion as to the direction society should take. The profit motive behind sensational stories further aggravates the situation.

As an outsider to American society who lived and worked with both liberals and conservatives, and traveled fairly extensively, the Author feels he was able to step back and see the trend. The future does not look pleasant. Ethnic strife is likely to increase as over-population and joblessness rise.

Well, there's always a market for pretentious, self-righteous generalizing posing as prophecy among those who need that sort of thing. But...re the highlighted- can you give specific examples of groups who espoused ideals that "appear[ed] reasonable enough" and emphasized "justice and equality," but whose actual "ultimate aim is to further their agenda and to get special treatment in society"? And how do you differentiate the "special" treatment you think they want from the "equal" treatment they actually are entitled to?

 

[Agatha]

As this thread has progressed, it has drifted from the original topic to include more of PartSkeptic's predictions. Rather than send an enormous proportion of the thread to AAH or try to split it into several threads, I have decided to change the title to bring the off-topic material within the thread subject.

Please do not assume that this is, or will ever be, standard operating procedure.

Posted By: Agatha

 

[Pixel42]

As expected PartSkeptic has ignored my question, so here is my own suggestion for assessing the accuracy of his "the pandemic will get much worse" prediction.

The pandemic started about six months ago and has so far killed about half a million people globally according to the tracker I've been using. I propose we give it another year, and set a figure of 78 million dead for the prediction to be considered a hit. Note that is a long way short of a 60% death rate (it's actually a 1% death rate) but I think it's the minimum which would suggest that the final result might be anything approaching the eventual global catastrophe PartSkeptic has predicted.

So the proposal is a minimum of 78 million dead globally by 1st July 2021, as reported by this tracker.

Comments?

I've also been trying to think of a metric for his "people will become more spiritual" prediction, which is apparently what will eventually stop the slaughter; suggestions are welcome. Maybe use one of the Pew religious views surveys?

ETA: Just to be clear deaths from all pandemics, including mutations of Covid-19 and any other virus which might emerge, would be included.

 

[PartSkeptic]

As this thread has progressed, it has drifted from the original topic to include more of PartSkeptic's predictions. Rather than send an enormous proportion of the thread to AAH or try to split it into several threads, I have decided to change the title to bring the off-topic material within the thread subject.

Please do not assume that this is, or will ever be, standard operating procedure.

Posted By: Agatha

Seems reasonable. Thanks.

 

[PartSkeptic]

As expected PartSkeptic has ignored my question, so here is my own suggestion for assessing the accuracy of his "the pandemic will get much worse" prediction.

The pandemic started about six months ago and has so far killed about half a million people globally according to the tracker I've been using. I propose we give it another year, and set a figure of 78 million dead for the prediction to be considered a hit. Note that is a long way short of a 60% death rate (it's actually a 1% death rate) but I think it's the minimum which would suggest that the final result might be anything approaching the eventual global catastrophe PartSkeptic has predicted.

So the proposal is a minimum of 78 million dead globally by 1st July 2021, as reported by this tracker.

Comments?

I've also been trying to think of a metric for his "people will become more spiritual" prediction, which is apparently what will eventually stop the slaughter; suggestions are welcome. Maybe use one of the Pew religious views surveys?

ETA: Just to be clear deaths from all pandemics, including mutations of Covid-19 and any other virus which might emerge, would be included.

I am not trying to prove I am right. I have given people on this thread some information to see what sort of reaction I would get. The various meanderings are all interlinked, but no-one gives even the slightest credence to anything I say.

At least you recognize that this is a long term thing. One year, two year and a five year interval would be meaningful. ALL deaths are significant as many are likely to be a spin-off of this pandemic. Including any wars. The point is that there must be two elements. A reduction of global population - and a breakdown in global society. Only then will the desired change occur.

I had hoped that posters would be constructive in proposing what changes would be positive for the world and how they might come about.

I note that humankind has hope in all situations. How many of us will be around in 1 year?

Metric for spiritual. No need. You will know it when it happens.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Well, there's always a market for pretentious, self-righteous generalizing posing as prophecy among those who need that sort of thing. But...re the highlighted- can you give specific examples of groups who espoused ideals that "appear[ed] reasonable enough" and emphasized "justice and equality," but whose actual "ultimate aim is to further their agenda and to get special treatment in society"? And how do you differentiate the "special" treatment you think they want from the "equal" treatment they actually are entitled to?

The extract was from a summary of the book I wrote. I will have to read it again. But the principles apply. This was not a supernatural prediction. Just a result of 15 years of observing American society and an understanding of the forces in society based on history.

The USA has the best and worst in the world, but it is going to tear itself apart. There is nothing to unify the population, and the desperation for dwindling resources will have groups competing for a bigger portion of the pie crumbs.

Given that it was written 28 years ago and is more relevant than ever, means that my assessments of the problems are probably accurate. They are not politically correct - but often the truth is not pretty. The problems have been buried, instead of being openly discussed. The US censors those it disagrees with.

Nothing pretentious. Just basic observations. Without the varnish. Trying to help people understand. It is not the ivory tower psychiatrists and analysts spewing forth Freudian philosophy. And, as with most of my knowledge, it is based on personal real life experiences

 

[Pixel42]

I am not trying to prove I am right. I have given people on this thread some information to see what sort of reaction I would get. The various meanderings are all interlinked, but no-one gives even the slightest credence to anything I say.

Credence must be earned.

At least you recognize that this is a long term thing. One year, two year and a five year interval would be meaningful. ALL deaths are significant as many are likely to be a spin-off of this pandemic. Including any wars. The point is that there must be two elements. A reduction of global population - and a breakdown in global society. Only then will the desired change occur.

If your belief that you are the recipient of divine revelation is correct. That has yet to be established.

I had hoped that posters would be constructive in proposing what changes would be positive for the world and how they might come about.

That's a different topic for a different thread, which you are welcome to start. I don't think even the retitling would make such a discussion on topic in this one, not while it's still in the conspiracy theory subforum anyway.

I note that humankind has hope in all situations. How many of us will be around in 1 year?

About as many as are now, even if your prediction meets my criteria for a hit (global population growth is 83 million).

ETA: and metrics are always needed to avoid subjective validation.

 

[Mojo]

Metric for spiritual. No need. You will know it when it happens.

How?

 

[Cosmic Yak]

How do you know this? Very personal observation, I must say.

God told me.
He also told me that he was quite surprised that you should choose this rather minor point to quibble over, when there are many more important questions from me that you should be answering instead.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Credence must be earned.


If your belief that you are the recipient of divine revelation is correct. That has yet to be established.


That's a different topic for a different thread, which you are welcome to start. I don't think even the retitling would make such a discussion on topic in this one, not while it's still in the conspiracy theory subforum anyway.


About as many as are now, even if your prediction meets my criteria for a hit (global population growth is 83 million).

ETA: and metrics are always needed to avoid subjective validation.

Metrics. I think of a judge who said "I cannot define porn but I know it when I see it". I doubt there are polls accurate enough to put numbers to such a social change. The polls cannot even get voting trends correct. The media will, however, be abuzz with stories. It will be hard to miss.

https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth
Population growth is still fast: Every year 140 million are born and 58 million die – the difference is the number of people that we add to the world population in a year: 82 million.

It is interesting to note that in order for a die-off to begin to be noticed then the world needs to see about 160 million a year die. That number is huge. If one looks at the graph of expected population on that site the annual growth has been declining from a peak in 1968 and the decline is accelerating. But that gives 10.9 billion people in 2100. The graphs are quite smoothed. No bumps for 1918 Flu or the WWs.

If God wants a rapid die-off it will apocalyptic. Now science is not predicting that. So if is happens, I would say God's message to me was not quite "ordinary" and in the realm of expectations. When one deals with the numbers, the future is unsettling if I am correct. One might even find a few skeptics re-thinking their skepticism.

I do not know how the "scientists" predict the population growth in the site I referenced. Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 book predicted massive famine. It was so influential it changed a number of things some of which nullified his predictions. He does not call them predictions - he calls them possible scenarios. One effect was a massive change in crop yields. The other was the slow-down in births.

Here is my thinking. Think of a Petri dish.

http://simplicitycollective.com/earth-as-a-petri-dish-the-problem-of-growth
I think everyone who casually dismisses the limits to growth perspective should be given a Petri dish with a swab of bacteria and watch as the colony grows until it consumes all the available nutrients or is poisoned by its own waste. In that light, I ask you to imagine a world of seven billion people, trending towards eleven billion people, all aspiring to the Western way of life, on our one and only planet, and consider for a moment whether the first limits to growth theorist, Thomas Malthus, who is often ridiculed, may yet have the last, tragic laugh.

I highlight the poisoning by toxins. In this scenario there is enough nutrients but the entire colony dies off - becomes extinct. We are producing toxins (including EMFs) at a very high rate. Their effect is slow and lags. It is better to have a massive die-off that scares humankind into action.

There is another effect of the toxins which I do not think has been taken into account. Peak toxins, where the effect accelerates and the breakdown of society feeds into this cycle. We could see sudden and quick drop rather than the slow rolling curve predicted.

There are many aspects of modern society that are seriously out of balance. Finance is a major one. Printing money and zero interest rates and a never-ending stock boom are symptoms of serious illness. The correction could be disastrous but kicking the can down the road is even more so.

So, could I be intuitive and analytical instead of psychic? Possibly, but although a massive die-off in the next few years is seen as possible due to calamitous events such an asteroid strikes, a major die-off due to a pandemic is thought to be preventable by modern medicine.

 

[PartSkeptic]

God told me.
He also told me that he was quite surprised that you should choose this rather minor point to quibble over, when there are many more important questions from me that you should be answering instead.

Your point was a bit of a "stinker". Provocation for me to comment on.

ETA: How do you know it was God talking to you and not Satan?

 

[JayUtah]

How do you know it was God talking to you and not Satan?

How do you?

 

[Pixel42]

Metrics. I think of a judge who said "I cannot define porn but I know it when I see it". I doubt there are polls accurate enough to put numbers to such a social change. The polls cannot even get voting trends correct. The media will, however, be abuzz with stories. It will be hard to miss.

Then the metric you are proposing is the extent to which the "media is abuzz with stories". But the media is abuzz with stories about all sorts of things all the time. What stories do you expect the media to be abuzz with? How many such stories are there currently, and what percentage increase in such stories are you predicting? How do you propose to count them, in order to demonstrate that the number has increased as you predicted?

 

[JayUtah]

I am not trying to prove I am right. I have given people on this thread some information to see what sort of reaction I would get.

You made claims and engaged in speculation, but you provided little or no actual information. Why would you present such claims to skeptics and expect the reaction to be anything other than requests for substantiating evidence?

....but no-one gives even the slightest credence to anything I say.

Because you have no evidence. It's clear you're looking for people to react by mindlessly validating your claims to prophecy. You've come to the wrong place for that.

I had hoped that posters would be constructive in proposing what changes would be positive for the world and how they might come about.

We tried to be constructive starting with your claims about what was happening in your little piece of the world and the woes you were suffering in it. We tried to change the way you were approaching the diagnosis of radio waves as the cause of your headaches. That went badly, because you seem to want any sort of constructive exercise to start with the premise that you're a genius and that your pronouncements are self-evidently correct. It's not everyone else's fault that your stay here has proven so problematic for you. Not everyone is going to dance to your tunes.

Metric for spiritual. No need. You will know it when it happens.

Of course there are metrics for claims of prophecy. Get the metrics right and you get a million dollars from James Randi.

 

[Cosmic Yak]

How do you?

Well, indeed.

 

[JayUtah]

How do you propose to count them, in order to demonstrate that the number has increased as you predicted?

In case it's not common knowledge, there are indeed media research groups who have well-developed methodologies for studying the prevalence of topics in the media across news platforms and over time. It is quite possible to come to a somewhat objective conclusion on points like this.

It appears the strategy so far has relied heavily on claiming things for which there is supposed to be no objective measurement. We were all set to correlate the effect of PartSkeptic's wifi with the onset of his symptoms. Then he suddenly up and declared that the test would not be valid unless it also measured signal strength, which ad-hockedly became a new variable in the experiment. Unable to measure it "properly," he declared, the test would be scientifically flawed. So he declined to do it.

Funny how "prophets" always want to keep their claims in the realms of the supposedly unmeasurable. And even more funny how they panic and lash out when they discover their claims can be measured after all. It's almost like they know it's a scam.

 

[JesseCuster]

ETA: How do you know it was God talking to you and not Satan?

A question that can and should be asked of anyone who thinks that God has talked to them. Including you.

I'm going to make a prediction that the answer will be in the form of special pleading.