Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 2

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That's all a rather ad hoc scenario, though. Overall, it's plausible but improbable. I doubt they'll even do an antibody test because at this point if they don't find something else, it wouldn't really make any difference. Doctors are understandably rather blasé about symptoms you had weeks ago.

The only reason to test antibodies is in a prevalence study.

Given the advice to still avoid exposure to COVID is the same regardless, there is no reason for a further diagnostic work up.

Not sure if anyone would follow you up when contact tracing.
 
This is doing the rounds of media right now, and thanks to some pretty strong credentials, it's getting traction:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...may-not-have-started-in-china-one-expert-says

I'm quite happy to call BS on it.

Here's the evidence for you that it is indeed BS:
Jefferson believes that many viruses lie dormant throughout the globe and emerge when conditions are favourable. It also means they can vanish as quickly as they arrive.

“Where did Sars-1 go? It's just disappeared,” he said.
We know exactly where SARS 1 went. It was snuffed out by careful contact tracing and isolating potentially exposed persons. And if he doesn't know that basic fact, he can't be too knowledgeable.
 
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World Health Organisation discontinues hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir treatment arms for COVID-19:

https://www.who.int/news-room/detai...ca6Lo-LZSKoWRPp9pAF5BuTX-WGiB2_G1vp57FChMh6Hk

WHO today accepted the recommendation from the Solidarity Trial’s International Steering Committee to discontinue the trial’s hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir arms. The Solidarity Trial was established by WHO to find an effective COVID-19 treatment for hospitalized patients.

The International Steering Committee formulated the recommendation in light of the evidence for hydroxychloroquine vs standard-of-care and for lopinavir/ritonavir vs standard-of-care from the Solidarity trial interim results, and from a review of the evidence from all trials presented at the 1-2 July WHO Summit on COVID-19 research and innovation.

These interim trial results show that hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir produce little or no reduction in the mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients when compared to standard of care. Solidarity trial investigators will interrupt the trials with immediate effect.
 
Here's the evidence for you that it is indeed BS:We know exactly where SARS 1 went.

Yeah that was the one that sent my BS meter into overdrive. The guy's supposed to be a viral expert and didn't know that? The rest of it looked to be skating close to the 5G CT nonsense.

Still, Oxford does have some real work going on, and The Economist puts them as leading the vaccine hunt: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...ord-university-is-leading-in-the-vaccine-race

World Health Organisation discontinues hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir treatment arms for COVID-19:

Thanks - I hadn't seen that. Treatment still at square one.
 
No, treatment has come a long way. Check out Twiv for the clinical look and what works and what they have learned so far. latest episode especially
 
No, treatment has come a long way. Check out Twiv for the clinical look and what works and what they have learned so far. latest episode especially

Mea culpa, I meant drug treatments. Treatment of Covid has indeed come a long way, which is no doubt why the death rate is falling.
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Meanwhile, the debate over aerosol transmission is being ramped up, with 239 scientists writing an open letter to WHO, which claims the evidence isn't strong enough at this stage.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/who-open-letter-airborne-coronavirus_n_5f02a7f3c5b612083c5e4b1b
 
The only reason to test antibodies is in a prevalence study.


The role of antibody tests in the statistics reporting is confusing to me right now. MA has been reporting the results of thousands of antibody tests a week, but there's nothing in the public guidelines, the instructions about who should get tested or what to do if you want to get tested, that even mentions the possibility of getting an antibody test. Maybe they are being used only for prevalence studies.

The strange thing, though, is that positive antibody tests are being classified as "probable cases" and as these are discovered, they're being reported as equivalent to new cases in the day to day numbers. In other words, each day there are "newly reported confirmed cases" (111, yesterday) from PCR testing and "newly reported probable cases" (25, yesterday) from antibody testing, and those are added together as 136 "newly reported cases today." And that's the number that data aggregator sites are using for the number of "new cases" each day in MA. Those time-shifted numbers could become very misleading as time goes on.

Given the advice to still avoid exposure to COVID is the same regardless, there is no reason for a further diagnostic work up.


Yeah, exactly. I self-quarantined as if my test result had been positive anyhow. (Why not, it's not like I was feeling up to going out.) The only difference is, if my test had been positive, my wife would have also been quarantined and tested as a recent contact of mine. She had no symptoms at that point (or since), and went to work. All water under the bridge now, in any case.

Not sure if anyone would follow you up when contact tracing.


I think MA has contact tracing going, so if my test had been positive there would have been follow up. It would have been easy enough, in my case.
 
CNN reports Regeneron starts Phase 3 trial of Covid antibody drug
The biotechnology company Regeneron announced the late-stage clinical trials of REGN-COV2, its investigational double antibody cocktail for the treatment and prevention of Covid-19, in a news release on Monday.
This is the first I've heard about it. Even if this treatment does pan out, I'm curious about how quickly they could scale up production to make it widely available. I hope this turns out.
 
The nursing home and assisted-living facilities where I live show COVID-19 has a pretty firm toehold among both residents and staff. Individual apartments haven't been hit at all. Gradually they are easing up some of the restrictions on apartment dwellers. I can now pick up groceries in the supermarket parking lot.

The thing I wonder about transmission is ... in any kind of shared-housing scenario, including meatpackers living/working in close quarters, prisons and nursing-home residents, it seems to me that the length of exposure matters. Some of the people in the nursing home have 12-hour-long shifts and the residents unfortunately are a captive audience. (Most also have advanced dementia and haven't been able to see family for 3 months). They also rarely see sunlight though there is a sun porch that is glassed-in.

I haven't really tried to follow the science on how it spreads, because I knew this would be a fast-moving situation.

Had to call security last night and this morning trying to retrieve a lost phone and both times they were in the middle of an "emergency." The campus had reportedly prepared a disused building to house COVID-19 cases, but it wasn't needed during the beginning of the lockdown. My guess is Security was involved in moving some active cases to that stand-alone building but I don't know for sure.

This place held the line for MONTHS but now it's at critical mass.

(BTW: From the "cloud" I could tell exactly where my phone was; it's accurate to within a few feet, but I'm not allowed in the building so security had to deliver it. Kind of impressive and scary at the same time.)
 
That is interesting, and I like the fact they haven't been shouting about it. Looks thoroughly professional and like you, I hope they find something that works.


Well it’s a therapy that’s been around for some time. Horse serum was used to treat tetanus in the early 1900s and rabies immunoglobulin therapy is currently used also. It has a good chance of working and lots of trials are underway.


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CNN reports Regeneron starts Phase 3 trial of Covid antibody drug

This is the first I've heard about it. Even if this treatment does pan out, I'm curious about how quickly they could scale up production to make it widely available. I hope this turns out.

I didn't quite grasp what this treatment is. Are they creating synthetic antibodies? Or replicating actual antibodies taken from people who have been infected? Or are they creating something that will stimulate the creation of specific antibodies if administered to a person?
 
Wow.

After a record 112 days on a specialised life-support system, a South Korean Covid-19 patient is recovering from double lung transplant surgery, doctors say, in only the ninth such procedure worldwide since the coronavirus outbreak began.

The doctors who conducted the eight-hour surgery described her destroyed lungs as hard like rock, Reuters reports.

The 50-year-old woman was diagnosed with the disease and hospitalised in late February and then spent 16 weeks on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support, which involves circulating a patient’s blood through a machine that adds oxygen to red blood cells.

That’s the longest that any Covid-19 patient in the world has spent on ECMO support, her doctors said.

Various drugs such as the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine, the HIV treatment Kaletra and steroids failed to stop her pulmonary fibrosis - scarring in the lungs - from worsening, said Dr Park Sung-hoon, professor of pulmonary and critical care medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital.

That left few options other than a lung transplant.

“The probability of success in lung transplants on ECMO patients is 50%, and fortunately, our patient was well prepared before the surgery when we found the donor,” said Dr Kim Hyoung-soo, director of the hospital’s ECMO programme, who was in charge of the surgery.

Source
 
The only reason to test antibodies is in a prevalence study.

Given the advice to still avoid exposure to COVID is the same regardless, there is no reason for a further diagnostic work up.

Not sure if anyone would follow you up when contact tracing.

Why though?

Personally, I would like to know whether I have immunity or not, just so I don't have to worry anymore.
 
I was looking at the data from Japan today and I noticed that Tokyo, despite new infections being on the rise, has not recorded a single death due to COVID-19 since 6/24 (13 days ago, almost 2 weeks). In all of Japan, only 9 deaths have been recorded in that same period.
 
At this point there should be a large enough set of folks that have been tested in the past for antibodies and were positive to provide preliminary data on the degree of immunity, if any, a prior exposure produces since people continue to get infected.

This is more doable in places that had serological surveys earlier as well as have been experiencing increasing new cases. California in particular.

So where is this data?
 
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At this point there should be a large enough set of folks that have been tested in the past for antibodies and were positive to provide preliminary data on the degree of immunity, if any, a prior exposure produces since people continue to get infected.

This is more doable in places that had serological surveys earlier as well as have been experiencing increasing new cases. California in particular.

So where is this data?

Other than deliberately infecting them - how can you ascertain data for actual exposure much less amount of exposure?
 
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