Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 2

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Skeptic Ginger said:
Given all the deficiency in babies and kids, one has to ask why these groups aren't suffering high rates from COVID 19?

And if a significant vit D deficiency was as widespread as the article makes it seem, why isn't everyone sick?

RE the emerging flu pandemic, we've been on the verge of the next 1918 flu pandemic for decades. Not that it won't happen. One day it most certainly will.
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I don't think you read the article that The Atheist linked to:

"There is striking lack of data in infants, children and adolescents worldwide..."

Why isn't everyone sick? Because not everyone is severely deficient in vitamin D, and everyone hasn't been infected, obviously.

Also, the claim is not that only those deficient in vitamin D gets sick, or dies. It's that such deficiency is one way your immune defence can be too weak to resist the virus.

If your house is empty while you're on holiday you should make sure to not only lock the front door, but also make sure the kitchen door and the windows are secure. There are more than one way a burglar can get into your house, and more than one way in which your immune defence can fail. That's what I'm saying.
 
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alfaniner said:
The new thing being pushed is that masks may actually help protect you from getting the virus. That was the original push for wearing masks in the first place! It had evolved that they said you should wear a mask to protect others from getting infected by you.

ffs, just wear a mask!
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It's sad that some people refuse to do it for altruistic reasons, but it's nice to know there might be a good selfish reason too!

I live in Yokohama, Japan and I commute to Tokyo. I was working from home for most of April and May, but started commuting to work twice a week since June. Today I took notice of what percentage of the people I saw on the commuter trains and train stations were wearing masks. I would estimate somewhere around 98% of the people I saw were wearing masks on the trains and in crowded areas in the station.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
This is valid.

I agree.

I will say the evidence of waning antibodies makes for a good news story but don't put too much stock in that for the moment. Until we see people getting reinfected, the finding of waning antibody might not be as significant as you think, at least not in the 6 month revaccination range. The immune system has a tendency to be reactivated with new exposures to the same virus.

For example, antibodies to the hepatitis B vaccine wane with time but immunity does not correlate with detectable circulating antibody. As long as there was documented immunity from the vaccine at some point, undetectable antibody, even at the time of an exposure, does not require a booster. The virus will stimulate the immune response.

The news media loves fear mongering.


This is a valid observation.

If we have a short lived vaccine there will be a number of variables at play.

First, if we eliminate the burden of the pathogen in large areas, it gives time for revaccinating, especially if rapid recognition of outbreaks and contact tracing is in place (ah the good old days when we had a functioning public health agency).

The drawback is there won't be a lot of natural boosting when a vaccinated person is exposed to the virus in the wild, naturally boosting the person's immunity. There is a bit of work going on now looking to see if lack of natural boosting to chicken pox (whether the initial immunity is from vaccine or natural disease) might contribute to an increase in shingles. You don't catch a new case of chicken pox if your immunity wanes, rather the latent virus in the person is reactivated.


Right now, the biggest problem we are facing was reiterated by the WHO today. Only a small fraction of the world's population has been infected so far. The pool of susceptible hosts is HUGE!

People who think this is over are really being misled by Trump and his fantasyland munchkins.
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Thanks for the details. Always appreciate the insight of a professional in the relevant field.
 
Italian whole-town study finds 40% of coronavirus cases had no symptoms (Reuters, link).

Yes, something we discussed here a looong time ago (remember Vò?); now the results are published:

"A study of coronavirus infections that covered almost everyone in the quarantined north Italian town of Vò found that 40% of cases showed no symptoms - suggesting that asymptomatic cases are important in the spread of the pandemic."

40%, pace TA's 98%.

Reminds me of this yarn (I'm sure there are many versions) on the power of empirical observation over authority I guess (it's also a critique of Aristote, and his ideas on the numbers of teeth women vs men had):

"In the year of our Lord 1432, there arose a grievous quarrel among the brethren over the number of teeth in the mouth of a horse. For thirteen days the disputation raged without ceasing. All the ancient books and chronicles were fetched out, and wonderful and ponderous erudition such as was never before heard of in this region was made manifest. At the beginning of the fourteenth day, a youthful friar of goodly bearing asked his learned superiors for permission to add a word, and straightway, to the wonderment of the disputants, whose deep wisdom he sore vexed, he beseeched them to unbend in a manner coarse and unheard-of and to look in the open mouth of a horse and find answer to their questionings. At this, their dignity being grievously hurt, they waxed exceeding wroth; and, joining in a mighty uproar, they flew upon him and smote him, hip and thigh, and cast him out forthwith. For, said they, surely Satan hath tempted this bold neophyte to declare unholy and unheard-of ways of finding truth, contrary to all the teachings of the fathers. After many days more of grievous strife, the dove of peace sat on the assembly, and they as one man declaring the problem to be an everlasting mystery because of a grievous dearth of historical and theological evidence thereof, so ordered the same writ down."
— Francis Bacon (1561-1626) (source)
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Is your brother going to go in to be seen about his foot? He should regardless of the COVID issue.
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He talked about seeing the doctor, but when I asked him today he said the pain went away so he didn't bother.

He also told me that he is taking a drug to keep the arthritis away, which means he should be extra careful about not getting Covid-19 (or any virus actually). Our state has done a much better job of containing Covid-19 than most, and since my brother has been working from home I thought he was safe. But he still got something. I don't want to catch anything either. Hoping that by being careful I can stay virus free forever!
 
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TellyKNeasuss said:
A Washington Post article cites studies on how much mask wearing slows the spread of COVID-19 (cuts it by more than half) and how much a nation-wide mask mandate would help the US economy (5% of the GDP).
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I don't have a WaPo sub, but saying masks would save USA a trillion dollars doesn't sound right, so I'd like to see how they get that figure.

arthwollipot said:
The United States has bought up the entire global stock of remdesivir, leaving none for any other country for at least the next three months.
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Not that big a deal - it's not that hard to produce and only pushed the share price up 2%. Plus, while early results were encouraging, it's not a pandemic-stopper in any way.

Compare how much they spent on hydroxychloroquine, that they now don't want.
 
The Atheist said:
Not that big a deal - it's not that hard to produce and only pushed the share price up 2%.
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It is a big deal, but in the way you think. If remdesivir turns out to actually be effective, how many countries will say "**** the patent, the lives of our citizens are more important"? This could be the beginning of the end for drug patents!
 
The Atheist said:
I don't have a WaPo sub, but saying masks would save USA a trillion dollars doesn't sound right, so I'd like to see how they get that figure.
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It was taken from a Goldman Sachs report:

Country-level comparisons show a similarly large effect. “Our numerical estimates are that cumulative cases grow 17.3% per week without a mask mandate but only 7.3% with a mask mandate, and that cumulative fatalities grow 29% per week without a mask mandate but only 16% with a mask mandate,” the authors write.

Applying those figures to the entire United States, the authors estimate a nationwide mask mandate could dramatically slow the daily growth rate of new infections, from roughly 1.6 percent to roughly 0.6 percent. To get an equivalent effect from an economic shutdown, you’d have to subtract 5 percent from GDP.
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The Atheist said:
.... Not that big a deal - it's not that hard to produce and only pushed the share price up 2%. Plus, while early results were encouraging, it's not a pandemic-stopper in any way.

Compare how much they spent on hydroxychloroquine, that they now don't want.
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Did you miss the part about needed 3 months to produce the next batch?

Not to mention the optics of it. :(
 
Roger Ramjets said:
It is a big deal, but in the way you think. If remdesivir turns out to actually be effective, how many countries will say "**** the patent, the lives of our citizens are more important"? This could be the beginning of the end for drug patents!
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I'm wondering if that won't be a good thing.

The drug companies continually threaten to end R&D if they can't make billions with their patents. I'd have to sidetrack the thread to discuss all the good things that can come from shifting medical research out of the for profit market.
 
Melbourne. Anecdotal data.

I saw someone say:

they live "200 meters from Werribee Plaza, one of the biggest & extreme cultural mix. Most people I know around here think we had corona back in January/ February when nobody was getting tested."
 
The Atheist said:
Thanks for that, and as I suspected, it's bollocks, because there aren't going to be more shutdowns.

USA is in the position of full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.
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That's if you only look at one aspect: GOP politics.

There's a limiting factor: Everyone notices when the hospitals overflow and run out of ventilators and ICU beds.

Already some of the GOP governors are putting on the breaks.
 
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