PartSkeptic’s Thread for Predictions and Other Matters of Interest

[PartSkeptic]

I meant to answer Pixel42 on what it would take to convince me I was wrong. Let me answer that first.

It is my belief that God wants serious change. That will not come about without destroying the current way of life. If that is the case, then we have much more on the way. Another round of a more serious virus? War? Famine? And other diseases?

The only thing that would convince me that my experiences were actually natural phenomena would be to demonstrate to me that they never happened. No-one has been able to explain how they could happen except by hallucination. And even during the one event, which I did take as an hallucination, it was "more real" than life and I was told that it was a way to give me the information, and for me to continue on my path.

No-one has been able to explain why there information is not a truth. I accept that the link between our brains and the supernatural world is (and must be) tenuous and very slight. This means mistakes are made. But it does not invalidate the knowledge gained.

Some people have a world-view is that God and the supernatural do not exist. They then use this as the basic premise for assuming that my experiences MUST have a natural explanation other that the supernatural. If they are right about their premise then they must be right about the conclusion. If they are wrong about their premise then they are wrong about their conclusion.

If I had only one or two strange experiences I might be more skeptical about them. I have had too many, and they have been varied.

 

[PartSkeptic]

You wondered why abaddon chose a paper which you perceive to be supporting your position, so you were clearly expecting it to support what you assume to be his.

Yes. You oppose my position about 5G being harmful and you ask Abaddon to give one. He added that I would be critical of it.

When I proposed a single paper from each of us, I expected cherry picking to get the best example. But the best example of no-harm versus harm. And I expected it to be in the area that has been well studied.

So I was taken by surprise. The paper is a warning that there are indication of harm and that we do not know enough. Is that not a worry?

 

[PartSkeptic]

Great "logic": "Some company was bad 40 years ago therefore all companies are bad till eternity especially the ones I (and only I) point to."

You are the one doing the extrapolation to "all" companies.

There is enough outcry that Telcos are covering up and are indeed causing harm for them to be lumped in with many bad examples of the past.

 

[PartSkeptic]

My position is pretty straightforward. The research and hence the evidence is simply not there to support the kind of wild claims made by PS.

While it is remotely possible that there exists some subset of humankind which is unexpectedly sensitive to NIR (or any species really) such effect has never been demonstrated consistently. Correlation is not causation.

To illustrate, consider the daily fail list of claims about what causes cancer.

http://thetownend.com/index.php?topic=38270.0;wap2

Eliminate all of those list items from your own life and consider where you end up.

The "proof" of "no harm" is not there.

In fact the article does show that there are "effects".

You are intelligent enough (and at time it shows) to know that some of these effects might be like many other industrial toxins (tobacco, sugar, leaded petrol, radium, DDT, mercury, antibiotics, microplastics and so on) that may slowly degrade life on Earth.

And when a warning it taken seriously too late you get what the USA currently has with Covid-19.

How about being specific as to a "wild claim". Apart from my predictions (scientific or not) about where all of this is going.

I see that talcum powder is among the list of cancer causes. This is because talcum power deposits and asbestos deposits occur together. It took a while for a company like Johnson and Johnson to improve their sourcing to drastically reduce asbestos in their product. However, they covered it up. And their lie was exposed during the lawsuit of a woman who got cancer after 30 years of use of talcum powder and that cancer was caused by the trace amounts of asbestos.

That said, life is an ongoing battle against cancer, and some of us are more susceptible genetically than others.

If cell phone microwaves do degrade living cells or even just give them added stress, do we really need to ignore it? It may prove to be much more deadly.

We now all know that a silent slow pathogen is the most feared and the most deadly. Which is why I predicted (my guess because God did not tell me) that God would use such a pathogen as Covid-19, and which is why I am saying that EMFs are the other deadly pathogen - slow and silent and global and in our houses.

The EMF will act together with other pathogens - viruses and bacteria to reduce the population. The EMF will also increase the mutation rate - something that over-population does naturally.

Are these wild claims? Or is it the link to God that makes them wild in your opinion?

 

[Pixel42]

Yes. You oppose my position about 5G being harmful

No, that's not accurate. I'm not convinced by the case you've made for it being harmful, mostly because you clearly do not have the necessary expertise to offer an informed opinion on the subject, but have made it clear that I don't either.

and you ask Abaddon to give one.

I asked him to chip in, because he clearly does have the necessary expertise. I did not expect him to accept your "you show me your best paper and I'll show you mine" challenge, because it's ridiculous and frankly childish, so was not in the least surprised when his reponse was a link to a large (nearly 100 paper) metastudy giving the best overview of the available evidence I have so far seen.

He added that I would be critical of it.

No, he predicted you would not comprehend it. He was correct. You didn't even comprehend why he chose it.

When I proposed a single paper from each of us, I expected cherry picking to get the best example. But the best example of no-harm versus harm. And I expected it to be in the area that has been well studied.

Yes, as I said you expected cherry picking, and you were wrong to do so. Only those who take a position first and then look for evidence to support it cherry pick. I expected better of abaddon, and was not disappointed.

So I was taken by surprise. The paper is a warning that there are indication of harm and that we do not know enough. Is that not a worry?

The paper suggests that there is sufficient evidence to justify further research. Maybe it will turn out that the current guidelines, e.g. about how far cell phone towers should be placed from habitations, should be strengthened. Maybe it will turn out that certain individuals are unusually sensitive to non-ionising radiation, and will need to take extra precautions around it. Based on the research done so far, those really are the absolute maximum outcomes I expect from it. Crackpot conspiracy theories will remain crackpot conspiracy theories.

 

[Pixel42]

I meant to answer Pixel42 on what it would take to convince me I was wrong. Let me answer that first.

[Superstitious nonsense snipped]

Refusal to answer actual question noted.

ETA the actual question:

Give us one or more scenarios for the next, say, two years (or five, or however many you think you need) which, if it unfolded, would make you conclude that you had indeed been fooling yourself. Note that, if the answer is "nothing could happen that would convince me I'm wrong", you are pretty much outing yourself as deluded.

 

[PartSkeptic]

One or more Telcos started funding a large UK study which polled a large number of people using self-reporting and answering questionnaires. I researched the details of the project and my conclusion was that the study seems to have faded out, as professors farmed the work out to students. The Telcos were already quoting the study to say there was no evidence of harm.

An interim report was that there was a link between obesity and cell phone use.

One could explain this in various ways.
a) Coincidence
b) Obese people use their cell phones more
c) Cell phones can be one cause of obesity
d) other

Now we have this link.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/is-americas-high-obesity-levels-leading-to-more-coronavirus-deaths

Can one say that cell phone usage leads to higher corona virus deaths?

And if we can, are the cell phones affecting people by cellular harm to cause more obesity which in turn causes more cell phone use?

 

[RedStapler]

One or more Telcos started funding a large UK study which polled a large number of people using self-reporting and answering questionnaires. I researched the details of the project and my conclusion was that the study seems to have faded out, as professors farmed the work out to students. The Telcos were already quoting the study to say there was no evidence of harm.

An interim report was that there was a link between obesity and cell phone use.

One could explain this in various ways.
a) Coincidence
b) Obese people use their cell phones more
c) Cell phones can be one cause of obesity
d) other

Now we have this link.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/is-americas-high-obesity-levels-leading-to-more-coronavirus-deaths

Can one say that cell phone usage leads to higher corona virus deaths?

And if we can, are the cell phones affecting people by cellular harm to cause more obesity which in turn causes more cell phone use?

Wow, just wow.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Refusal to answer actual question noted.

ETA the actual question:

Sorry.

Define "wrong". If you mean that if there is not a great change in society because of this pandemic and other disasters in the next 5 years then my prediction is indeed wrong.

If you think that my being wrong about a prediction means that I am wrong about the existence of God or the supernatural, that is not so. My answer is that I have always accepted that I may be wrong about the existence of God or the supernatural.

I would remain at least 98% confident about the existence of God and the supernatural even if it turns out I am wrong about the prediction. I do not think that that qualifies me as "fooling myself" or being "deluded". I believe I have a rational philosophical explanation about the Universe and the Prime Cause is quite valid.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Wow, just wow.

Thank you for your appreciation. (What is the emoticon for sarcasm?)

 

[PartSkeptic]

No, that's not accurate. I'm not convinced by the case you've made for it being harmful, mostly because you clearly do not have the necessary expertise to offer an informed opinion on the subject, but have made it clear that I don't either.


I asked him to chip in, because he clearly does have the necessary expertise. I did not expect him to accept your "you show me your best paper and I'll show you mine" challenge, because it's ridiculous and frankly childish, so was not in the least surprised when his reponse was a link to a large (nearly 100 paper) metastudy giving the best overview of the available evidence I have so far seen.


No, he predicted you would not comprehend it. He was correct. You didn't even comprehend why he chose it.


Yes, as I said you expected cherry picking, and you were wrong to do so. Only those who take a position first and then look for evidence to support it cherry pick. I expected better of abaddon, and was not disappointed.


The paper suggests that there is sufficient evidence to justify further research. Maybe it will turn out that the current guidelines, e.g. about how far cell phone towers should be placed from habitations, should be strengthened. Maybe it will turn out that certain individuals are unusually sensitive to non-ionising radiation, and will need to take extra precautions around it. Based on the research done so far, those really are the absolute maximum outcomes I expect from it. Crackpot conspiracy theories will remain crackpot conspiracy theories.

There is hope for you and Abaddon yet.

Time will tell. If I am right, then we have a looming catastrophe worse than climate change. Of course, that catastrophe is likely to stop climate change.

You seem okay chancing the disaster. Will you say afterward "How were we to know?" Just as Trump has done with corona virus.

 

[RedStapler]

You seem okay chancing the disaster.

You seem okay hoping for a disaster just so you can be right...

 

[Pixel42]

Sorry.

Apology accepted.

Define "wrong".

That's what I'm asking you to do.

If you mean that if there is not a great change in society because of this pandemic and other disasters in the next 5 years then my prediction is indeed wrong.

"A great change in society" is far too vague and open to interpretation. I asked you to be specific so that you won't be able to subjectively validate whatever does happen and insist it was what you expected.

ETA: But given that you manage to subjectively validate a prediction that there would be a fungal pandemic by the end of 2017 into a prediction of a viral pandemic in 2020, it really does appear that nothing would convince you you're wrong. Even if you're as specific as I'm asking you to be you'll still manage to retrofit whatever does happen, no matter how different, as vindication.

If you think that my being wrong about a prediction means that I am wrong about the existence of God or the supernatural, that is not so.

I didn't suggest any of that. I asked what would convince you "That god isn't sending you messages? it really was just years of confirmation bias, and vastly underestimating the likelihood that coincidences will occur?"

My answer is that I have always accepted that I may be wrong about the existence of God or the supernatural.

I have seen no evidence of that.

I would remain at least 98% confident about the existence of God and the supernatural even if it turns out I am wrong about the prediction. I do not think that that qualifies me as "fooling myself" or being "deluded". I believe I have a rational philosophical explanation about the Universe and the Prime Cause is quite valid.

I just had to watch the funeral of my brother-in-law Nigel, who I've known for nearly 60 years, on my laptop via a webcam, because only 5 mourners were allowed in the church. He died of Covid-19 on Easter Saturday. So forgive me if I just laugh at that.

 

[abaddon]

One or more Telcos started funding a large UK study which polled a large number of people using self-reporting and answering questionnaires. I researched the details of the project and my conclusion was that the study seems to have faded out, as professors farmed the work out to students. The Telcos were already quoting the study to say there was no evidence of harm.

An interim report was that there was a link between obesity and cell phone use.

One could explain this in various ways.
a) Coincidence
b) Obese people use their cell phones more
c) Cell phones can be one cause of obesity
d) other

Now we have this link.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/is-americas-high-obesity-levels-leading-to-more-coronavirus-deaths

Can one say that cell phone usage leads to higher corona virus deaths?

And if we can, are the cell phones affecting people by cellular harm to cause more obesity which in turn causes more cell phone use?

Holy sweet baby spaghetti monster.

This is wrong on so many levels.

Once again, correlation does not equate to causation. That is why peer reviewed science is required.

Right now this moment, I am awash in a sea of EM. I have 8 computers, some mine, some for repair to support people staying at home. I have three phones and a tablet on the go. All are pouring out EM like there is no tomorrow. All powered by a direct fibre optic cable into my home feeding a honking great router which itself pours out a crapton of EM. From my window I can see two honking great cell masts bristling with antennae, I mean those masts are fully loaded.

According to your crank theory I should be the size of a whale by now.

Yet I an a trim, slender bloke and always have been. Why, after 50 years of such insane exposure am I not obese? Or unwell in some fashion? Or have some disease of some description?

You claim that some trivial exposure has made you unwell, yet 20, 30 times the exposure has had no effect on me for 50 years. Am I one of those Westworld hosts or what? A Terminator, perhaps. Let's go with a Terminator then.

Since I am unaffected in any way, yet you as a human are we must conclude that I am in fact not human, therefore I must perforce be either an alien or a robot, right?

That seems like specious and downright foolish reasoning, doesn't it.

But that is exactly what you are doing. My stupid conclusion that I am a Terminator is arrived at by the very same route you are following to reach yours.

And another thing. I handed you an unbiased study of the state of the current research. You were certainly not expecting me to be unbiased, you certainly did not read all of these study papers in detail and are ill equipped to understand them anyway.

Why might I provide such an overview? That would be because you have little understanding of any position but your own biased position.

Can you comprehend that if it were demonstrated that 5G caused any manner of ill health with evidence, I would be right alongside that?

Can you comprehend that you have presented mere anecdotes? And that my anecdotes directly contradict yours?

Can you comprehend that this makes anecdotal evidence useless?

ETA: And another thing. You cited the risible Fox News? Really?

 

[PartSkeptic]

You seem okay hoping for a disaster just so you can be right...

On one hand, I hope to be wrong. I would prefer a few more years so that I am not around when the chaos hits.

I do not hope for disaster for the sake of suffering. I certainly do not hope for disaster so that I can be proved right - that is egotistical and my ego is fine. When I am wrong I am wrong. There are always reasons for my being wrong and I analyze the reasons and make corrections to my outlook.

I do hope for change. Positive change. And since humankind will not change without disaster then God has chosen to impose that upon humankind. I see so much immorality and corruption around me and in the world. It is causing a lot of misery.

A disaster will bring some of that misery to the people who could do something about it but choose not to. I see it as some form of justice. Regrettably there are many good people who do not deserve suffering who will suffer.

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

I just had to watch the funeral of my brother-in-law Nigel, who I've known for nearly 60 years, on my laptop via a webcam, because only 5 mourners were allowed in the church. He died of Covid-19 on Easter Saturday. So forgive me if I just laugh at that.

I am sorry to hear that. My condolences to you for your loss.

It is likely we are all going to be affected in the next few years. At 71 and with serious health problems I am one of those at a high risk for death. So far SA has a low rate but it is possibly the calm before the storm.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Holy sweet baby spaghetti monster.

(snip)

Yet I an a trim, slender bloke and always have been. Why, after 50 years of such insane exposure am I not obese? Or unwell in some fashion? Or have some disease of some description?

You claim that some trivial exposure has made you unwell, yet 20, 30 times the exposure has had no effect on me for 50 years. Am I one of those Westworld hosts or what? A Terminator, perhaps. Let's go with a Terminator then.

ETA: And another thing. You cited the risible Fox News? Really?

Your invocation of your God is duly noted.

I look at a wide variety of news channels and am well aware of the biases that most have. Are you saying that their report is fake?

I have not claimed that trivial exposure made me unwell. The opposite. A tower with strong radiation 24/7 was the culprit. It made my wife sensitive as well. And the neighbors on the other side.

You need to get with the program. Most people with EHS have an underlying problem such as Chemical Sensitivity. It seems that my underlying problem is both histoplasmosis and fluoroquinolone damage.

Like smoking, not all people are going to show symptoms, and not all people are going to have the same symptoms. And like smoking it is going to take decades for the extent of the damage to start showing.

The test linking obesity to cell phones was not an anecdote. It did not explain the linkage, and you have chosen not to try to either. My viewpoint is that it is a tenuous link and falls far short of any proof. It is possible that excessive EMF exposure makes a person more likely to gain weight but we are a long way from any proof.

As for symptoms of illness, I would be concerned if I were you because it does sound like you are indeed awash in EMF. Like smokers, where 90 percent do not die of lung cancer, it depends both on your genes and on any illnesses you might get. However, if I were you I would worry about getting Covid-19. One of the first symptoms is tinnitus. How bad is yours?

 

[Pixel42]

I see so much immorality and corruption around me and in the world. It is causing a lot of misery.

When in recorded history has that not been the case? It's usually been far worse than it is now.

So why would God suddenly decide to do something about it now rather than, say, during the Holocaust? Or when his followers were busy burning each other at the stake because of minor differences in their understanding of how he wanted them to live and/or worship?

 

[PartSkeptic]

When in recorded history has that not been the case? It's usually been far worse than it is now.

So why would God suddenly decide to do something about it now rather than, say, during the Holocaust? Or when his followers were busy burning each other at the stake because of minor differences in their understanding of how he wanted them to live and/or worship?

Times are relevant. The English magistrates in the Middle Ages had a surge in crime probably due to poverty (real and serious poverty). They reasoned that harsh and graphic punishment that could be seen by the masses would be a deterrent. It was not. It hardened the masses.

In times of war there is often no mercy for the enemy whether within or without. The firebombing of Dresden was a war crime and when the English realized what they had done they quietly got rid of the lead officer in that scandal. The nuking of Japan in order to war-test atomic bombs when the war was winding down was not really necessary although some find justification.

In past ages, people were routinely mounted on stakes. Molten metal was poured down throats. Drawn and quartered.

The Holocaust should have been a wake-up call to the Jewish people to determine what role they might have had in the way they were treated. Instead, that history is buried and they are even more stubborn in refusing to listen. Even when the criticism is well-meaning and constructive. Of course they are not the only religion that should have reformed themselves.

Humankind has made serious advances, and most people I met and interacted with in the last half of the last century were mostly respectful of the law. Many were middle class. Now, I find that many people are quite prepared to lie and steal and swindle their fellow human because there are no consequences. Only the poor have consequences.

A supporter of Capitalism quoted Adam Smith as saying that capitalism is only as good as the morality of people. It is out of control in the USA. Regulations are increased to deal with the increased flouting and loopholes but it just gets worse. See this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-1-quote-and-who-said-it-prove-capitalism-is-dying-2014-05-10

Community is disappearing and individualism (a me-too attitude) is growing. Where are the care-centers for the homeless and the mentally ill? Things that should be run by the state are farmed out for profit.

So I do not compare with bygone ages but within my lifetime - from the end of WW2.

We have serious global problems that have made suffering worse. We keep people alive with vaccines and food aid so that they strip the land of everything and so that their suffering is worsened.

Our politicians do not know how to deal with technological challenges. They are in the pocket of people with money and power.

Many of the current problems can be blamed on over-population where people fight for resources. Morality is fine when one can afford it. God will fix it because humankind cannot.

 

[abaddon]

Your invocation of your God is duly noted.

I am an atheist and believe in no god. You are the one claiming to get direct messages from some imaginary deity.

I look at a wide variety of news channels and am well aware of the biases that most have. Are you saying that their report is fake?I am saying that Fox has a poor track record for being remotely honest.

I have not claimed that trivial exposure made me unwell. The opposite. A tower with strong radiation 24/7 was the culprit. It made my wife sensitive as well. And the neighbors on the other side.

Yet here I am sitting healthy with orders of magnitude more exposure than you. My anecdote beats your anecdote.

Does that not make you realise how useless anecdotes are?

You need to get with the program. Most people with EHS have an underlying problem such as Chemical Sensitivity. It seems that my underlying problem is both histoplasmosis and fluoroquinolone damage.

And you forget that I too have had such medication. After a six month course of same, my liver and kidneys were a mess. After the medication finished, they had resumed normal operation within a month.

If yours did not, then either you have some other thing going on or you are making it all up.

Like smoking, not all people are going to show symptoms, and not all people are going to have the same symptoms. And like smoking it is going to take decades for the extent of the damage to start showing.

When you are trapped in a dead end, you just make up new crap as a distraction.

The test linking obesity to cell phones was not an anecdote. It did not explain the linkage, and you have chosen not to try to either. My viewpoint is that it is a tenuous link and falls far short of any proof. It is possible that excessive EMF exposure makes a person more likely to gain weight but we are a long way from any proof.

Seriously? You posted a cite as evidence which even you reject? How dishonest.

As for symptoms of illness, I would be concerned if I were you because it does sound like you are indeed awash in EMF.

Correct. I am awash in EMF. Doesn't cost me a thought. If I ever have any non-trivial symptoms of note, I consult doctors, not internet cranks.

Like smokers, where 90 percent do not die of lung cancer, it depends both on your genes and on any illnesses you might get. However, if I were you I would worry about getting Covid-19.

If you were right I should have had it already. I interact with 70-80 people every day because I am classified as an essential worker. I do the usual sanitiser, mask and gloves routine. I have no fear of getting it. But the one thing I don't use is a tin foil hat.

One of the first symptoms is tinnitus. How bad is yours?

I have never had any such thing. Why would you ask such an absurd question?